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Thursday, December 20
Updated: December 22, 5:01 PM ET
 
Analyzing Thursday's moves

By David Schoenfield
ESPN.com

Not all of Thursday's deals have been officially finalized, but we'll offer up the analysis anyway.

Johnny Damon to Red Sox: 4 years, $31 million
After leading the American League with 136 runs and 46 stolen bases with the Royals in 2000, Johnny Damon was supposed to be the final piece of the puzzle for the A's, who acquired him in an offseason trade. Oakland did win 102 games, but no thanks to Damon, who had a bad year at the plate.

How bad? Damon had nearly all of Oakland's leadoff at-bats, yet the A's finished just 20th in the majors in on-base percentage from their leadoff hitters as Damon had a .324 OBP. He didn't hit for power either, as his 687 OPS (on-base + slugging) meant Oakland's leadoff hitters ranked 24th in OPS. And among 75 American League regulars, Damon ranked ahead of just four of them in OPS: Luis Rivas, Omar Vizquel, Jerry Hairston and Cal Ripken.

For that fine performance, Damon secured a contract that will pay him nearly $8 million a year. Hey, trying to catch the Yankees is an expensive proposition.

Of course, Damon was much better in 2000, when he had an 877 OPS, and 1999, when he had an 856 OPS. And that's the player the Red Sox are hoping they get.

Is he? Part of Damon's success in 2000 was due to his .361 average at home in Kansas City (he hit .292 on the road). However, he hit better on the road in 1999 (.315 vs. .299), so there's no indication Damon was a better hitter because of Kansas City's home park. Oakland is a tough place to hit, so moving away from there will help.

Damon did play better in the second half of 2001 -- .278 average, .351 OBP vs. .239, .301 first-half marks -- as some believe he put too much pressure on himself. However, that pressure will only be intensified in Boston.

Also, remember that Carl Everett wasn't very good in 2001 either: he hit just .257 with a 761 OPS. And Damon is a much better defensive center fielder than Everett. And despite Everett's problems and Nomar Garciaparra's lost season, the Red Sox still finished seventh in the AL in runs scored. And while Damon wasn't a good leadoff hitter in 2001, Red Sox leadoff hitters were even worse: they combined for a .312 OBP.

If Damon plays close to his 2000 level and Garciaparra and offseason waiver claim Tony Clark stay healthy, the Red Sox should have a vastly improved offense in 2002, perhaps one of the top three in the AL.

Chan Ho Park to Rangers: reported 5 years, $65 million
Check out this simple chart, listing Park's home ERAs and road ERAs with the Dodgers:

Year   Home  Road
2001   2.36   4.83
2000   2.34   4.29
1999   5.46   5.04
1998   2.75   5.21
1997   2.92   3.92
1996   2.10   5.27

Do those road ERAs look like a $13-million-a-year pitcher? No way. Outside of Dodger Stadium, Park has been a league-average pitcher at best. Either Rangers GM John Hart didn't do his homework or owner Tom Hicks strongarmed him into signing another Scott Boras client.

And now Park moves from one of the best pitching parks in baseball to one of the best hitting parks. The Rangers will be paying big money to a pitcher who will have trouble keeping his ERA under 4.50.

You know, kind of like Rick Helling, who the Rangers non-tendered on Thursday and allowed to become a free agent.

Hideo Nomo to Dodgers: 2 years, $13 million
Remember when Nomo couldn't get a job after the 1998 season? He had posted a 4.92 ERA with the Dodgers and Mets and practically had to beg the Cubs for a spring training tryout in '99. They cut him. Three years later, after ERAs of 4.54, 4.74 and 4.50, he's now worth $6.5 million per year.

Nomo's biggest weaknesses are home runs, walks and lack of durability. He pitched more than six innings in just 11 of his 33 starts last year and into the eighth inning just four times. Fenway Park is no longer a great home-run park, so that problem may not be helped by moving to Dodger Stadium.

In effect, this turns into a series of trades. The Red Sox lose Nomo, but get John Burkett. The Dodgers lose Park, but get Nomo. The Rangers get Park and lose Helling. So, I guess that means Helling goes to the Braves, except ...

Albie Lopez to Braves: 1 year, $4 million
It's been a strange offseason for the Braves, to say the least. Atlanta led the NL in fewest runs allowed but ranked just 13th in runs scored.

So, they make the injury-prone John Smoltz the highest-paid closer in the game and sign two guys the Tampa Bay Devil Rays were happy to get rid of in Lopez and Vinny Castilla.

Spending $8 million combined on Castilla and Lopez is crazy when the Braves could have used that money to sign a good-hitting outfielder.

As for Lopez, he stunk it up with the Devil Rays (5.34 ERA), but pitched better with the Diamondbacks (4.00 ERA). He's a flyball pitcher, so having Andruw Jones behind him will help.

Still, this is a pitcher with 252 big-league games and 763 innings behind him with a career ERA of 4.75. The Braves figure to slot him in the rotation behind Greg Maddux, Tom Glavine, Kevin Millwood and Jason Marquis. He replaces Burkett, who actually led the team in ERA last year. That transaction should result in a big dropoff for the Braves.

David Wells to Diamondbacks: reported 1 year
Wells' deal is said to be loaded with incentives, so it may be a low-risk investment for Arizona. If he pitches well and stays healthy, he'll earn his money. Wells turns 39 in May and hasn't exactly followed the Roger Clemens workout regimen during his career. Nonetheless, reports are he's cut down the beer drinking this offseason and is getting in better shape.

But he is old, he's coming off back surgery and he's always been overrated anyway. He's only had one season with an ERA under 4.00 in the last six seasons (his 18-4 campaign with the Yankees in 1998). He gives up a lot of hits (most in the AL in 1999 and 2000), so he needs a good defense behind him. The Diamondbacks won the World Series, but they are an old team and their run prevention relied more on two great strikeout pitchers than great defense.

Wells isn't a good bet to spit out another 200-inning season of solid work and at some point the D-Backs really have to consider bringing in a player younger than 30. But if Wells stays healthy and makes 30 starts, Arizona fans will quickly forget Albie Lopez.

OK, so they already have ...

And by the way, if Helling signs with the White Sox, our cycle will be complete. We can only hope.

David Schoenfield is the baseball editor for ESPN.com.




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