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Sport Sections
Thursday, March 8
How many runs will the Rangers score?
By David Schoenfield
ESPN.com

How many runs will the Texas Rangers score this season? If Ken Caminiti and Ruben Mateo and Rusty Greer and Ivan Rodriguez and Alex Rodriguez remain healthy -- all spent time on the disabled list last season -- and Andres Galarraga and Rafael Palmeiro postpone the sands of time for another year, they could become the first team to score 1,000 runs since ... the 1999 Indians!

In fact, let's compare the two lineups using OPS (on-base percentage + slugging percentage) and runs created (from the Stats Inc. Major League Handbook) to see how the Rangers stack up with the Indians, who scored 1,009 runs. 
Rangers      OPS   RC    Indians    OPS   RC
Greer       .836   72    Lofton    .837   77
Pudge      1.042   75    Vizquel   .833  107
A-Rod      1.026  136    Alomar    .955  142
Palmeiro    .955  120    Ramirez  1.105  150 
Galarraga   .895   84    Thome     .966  123
Caminiti   1.001   50    Justice   .889   85
Kapler      .833   66    Sexson    .819   67
Mateo       .786   25    Fryman    .719   43
Velarde     .754   63    Diaz      .690   48
Totals            691                    842

Obviously, health is the key factor for Texas. The nine regulars listed above played only 992 games last year -- or 68 percent of a possible 1,458 games. Interestingly, the 1999 Indians also missed their share of games. Four of the regulars played 140 or more games but only Roberto Alomar reached 150. Cleveland's nine regulars combined for 1,187 games played, or 81.4 percent of the total possible.

Let's pretend the Rangers players produce at the same rate as 2000 and those who missed significant playing time each play at least 145 games this year. This would give the team 1,317 games played from its regulars -- 90 percent of all games. What'stheir projected runs created? 
Player    2001 Projected RC
             (with GP)
Greer         99 (145)
Pudge        120 (145)
A-Rod        136 (148)
Palmeiro     120 (158)
Galarraga     84 (141)
Caminiti     123 (145)
Kapler        83 (145)
Mateo         70 (145)
Velarde       75 (145)
Total        910 (1317)

Even if everyone stays healthy and plays 140 games, the projected runs created total (which mirrors a team's actual runs scored) is 910, still well short of 1,000.

Of course, that 90 percent total is extremely unrealistic, especially for a team with as many over-30 guys as the Rangers. If we project the Rangers to 1,187 games played -- the same total as Cleveland's regulars in 1999 -- we get about 820 runs created, slightly less than the 842 runs created by Cleveland's starting nine. The Indians' top subs that year wear Enrique Wilson and Wil Cordero, who don't quite match the Rangers' top pair of Frank Catalanotto and Chad Curtis.

Now, we haven't considered that the Rangers' players won't produce at the same rate as last season. Here's a quick rundown of what to expect:

  • Rusty Greer: He's pretty consistent and should produce at a similar rate.

  • Ivan Rodriguez: Pudge was on pace for one of the great-hitting years ever by a catcher. His .667 slugging percentage was far above his previous career high of .558 in 1999. While it seems quite unlikely Pudge can match last year's OPS, it's also possible he'll hit better than 1999, when he was the AL MVP.

  • Alex Rodriguez: A-Rod moves from the AL's worst hitter's park to the best. Over the last three years, The Ballpark in Arlington increased offensive production by 12 percent. Safeco Field has decreased offensive production by 16 percent since it came into play. Applying those percentages to A-Rod's 136 runs created, we can expect that figure to rocket upwards in the 170-180 range.

  • Rafael Palmeiro: AL RBI leader?

  • Andres Galarraga: The Big Cat moves from a tough hitter's park to a good one, which will help mask the offensive decline expected from a 40-year-old.

  • Ken Caminiti: He's only played 137 games the last two years. He's been a terrific hitter when healthy, but expect a 100-point drop from last year's 1.001 OPS.

  • Gabe Kapler: He had a big second half last year (.941 OPS vs. .686 in the first half), so he may be ripe for a big leap forward. Stats Inc. projects an .853 OPS, but it could be even higher.

  • Ruben Mateo: Stats projects an .842 OPS, up 56 points from last year.

  • Randy Velarde: At 38, he's on the decline. Catalanotto is actually a step up as a hitter.

    Will the Rangers score 1,000 runs? It appears possible given the improvement we expect from A-Rod, Kapler and Mateo. But it appears the Rangers have too many brittle and old bodies to achieve this goal.

    By the way, the 1931 Yankees scored a record 1,067 runs. They were led by Lou Gehrig and Babe Ruth. The two tied for the AL lead with 46 home runs. Gehrig also led the league with 184 RBI and 163 runs. Ruth hit .373 and knocked in 163 runs. Ben Chapman hit .317 with 122 RBI and a league-leading 61 steals. Lyn Lary, Joe Sewell and Earle Combs all scored 100 runs.

    They finished in second place, 13½ games behind the Philadelphia A's.

    David Schoenfield is the baseball editor at ESPN.com.

    		•  

    ALSO SEE
    Epstein: The greatest offenses of all time

    McAdam: A Texas-sized lineup