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| Sunday, July 9 | ||||||
| Ten second-half questions for the NL ESPN.com | ||||||
| The Braves are still in first, Sammy Sosa is still with the Cubs, Randy Johnson is still dominating and the Phillies are still under .500.
But there are still plenty of questions about the second half of the National League season.
1. Do the Braves really have pitching problems? True, the Braves have a 4.33 ERA, good enough for second in the league. However, that's more than half a run higher than last season's league-leading 3.63 mark. And before you blame John Rocker, Atlanta's starters have a 4.36 ERA, the bullpen 4.27.
The Reds entered Friday's play 41-43, nine games behind the Cardinals in the NL Central and seventh in the wild-card standings. That's a lot of games to make up and a lot of teams to pass. They are ninth in runs scored and 13th in runs allowed, so they need help across the board. And it hasn't all been Ken Griffey Jr.'s fault. While his batting average is just .235, his overall production is very similar to last year. The big problems have been Sean Casey (.252, 5 HRs), Eddie Taubensee (.311 to .259), Pete Harnisch (16 wins to one) and a bullpen whose ERA has risen from a league-best 3.36 in 1999 to 4.43. Are they dead? Yes, deader than the smile on Griffey's face. 3. Is there a favorite in the NL West? No. A week ago, reports had the Giants considering trade offers for Ellis Burks and Kirk Rueter. But now they've won six in a row and are just 4½ back of Arizona. The Diamondbacks continue to lead the division, despite injuries to Matt Williams, Erubiel Durazo and Todd Stottlemyre. The surprising Rockies continue to score runs and win at home (28-9) and not score runs and lose on the road (17-28). The Dodgers are getting great years from Kevin Brown and Gary Sheffield. But the Giants' recent spurt is worth noting. They have the league's best offense, scoring only three fewer runs than Rockies, but leading the league in runs per game on the road. Their pitching is no great shape (11th in ERA), but as long as Barry Bonds and Jeff Kent continue to mash, they can outslug their opponents to a division crown. 4. What will happen with Sammy Sosa? It's simple: there isn't a big market for a player who wants a contract extension worth $17 million a year, especially if it means giving up four or five prospects. With Sosa unlikely to approve any trade unless he gets that extension, Sosa will likely remain with the Cubs. 5. Will Mike Piazza finally win an MVP award? Piazza's booming bat has been a key reason the Mets lead the wild-card race and remain close to the Braves. He's hitting .359, slugging .715 and ranks third in the NL with 72 RBI. Piazza has finished second twice in the MVP vote (1996, 1997) but this could be his year. And before you say, "What about Todd Helton?" remember that Piazza plays half his games in a tough hitting park. Helton is hitting .459 at home, .320 on the road; Piazza is hitting .304 at home and .424 on the road. 6. Will Jose Lima ever win again? Hands-down the most disappointing team in baseball, the Astros are a dismal 28-56. They are on pace for 54 wins, which would be 43 worse than 1999. The collapse might cost manager Larry Dierker his job and possibly expedite Jeff Bagwell out of town as well (the Astros have a club option for 2001, but might consider trading him in the offseason). As bad as the team has been, Lima has been even worse. He won his first start against the Pirates, but since then has started 16 games and lost 13 of them. He's pitched bad at Enron Field (0-7, 7.77 ERA) and bad on the road (1-6, 7.30). He's pitched bad in April (8.42), May (7.68), June (5.17) and July (21.00). He's been bad on turf (1-1, 6.39) and bad on grass (0-12, 7.68). He's been bad at night (6.78) and bad during the day (9.89). He's been really bad early in the game (.420 average against him from pitches 1-15). At this point, he's just seven losses away from becoming the first pitcher since Brian Kingman in 1980 to lose 20 games and six from tying John Nabors' record of 19 straight defeats in one season. If there is hell, Jose Lima is there. 7. Which team is most likely to fall off in the second half? Our bet is the Rockies. Much has been made of their emphasis on speed and defense and pitching, but nobody talks about their real secret weapon: the bullpen. Entering Friday, Colorado's relievers were 24-7 with a 4.17 ERA. Despite pitching in Coors Field, that bullpen ERA ranks third in the league. Gabe White and Jose Jimenez are a combined 10-0. The law of baseball averages is bound to catch up to them. And they're going to have to score a few runs on the road. Colorado is hitting .237 on the road and slugging just .347, both marks worst in the majors (no other NL team is slugging below .400). Maybe Helton (.459), Jeffrey Hammonds (.455) and Jeff Cirillo (.447) will all continue to hit higher than .440 at home -- they might have to for the Rockies to stay in the race. 8. Who is the key player in the second half? Right now, no team relies upon one player as much the Diamondbacks depend upon Randy Johnson. He's 13-2 -- the rest of the team is just four games above .500. With Arizona's starting rotation a bit of mess (Todd Stottlemyre out for two months, Omar Daal pitching horribly), the Big Unit must continue to give innings, strikeouts and wins. Aside from Johnson, San Francisco's Russ Ortiz is vital. He won 18 games a year ago, which is why he remains in the rotation despite a 6.92 ERA. After throwing a ton of pitches last year, Ortiz's control problems (along with Dusty Baker's handling) have him racking up huge pitch counts again: he already has six starts of 120 or more pitches. Both teams are on the fringes of the wild-card race at one game over .500. The Marlins have been the bigger surprise, with several of their young players (Ryan Dempster, Derrek Lee, Mark Kotsay) making huge strides from a year ago. If the Marlins can find some consistent starters behind Dempster, they have a shot at .500, but don't expect them to stay in the wild-card chase. The Expos have the great 1-2 punch of Vladimir Guerrero and Jose Vidro, but Ugueth Urbina is out for the season and now Carl Pavano has elbow problems. On the bright side, Dustin Hermanson, who has a 5.13 ERA so far, had a 2.95 ERA after the All-Star break last year. If Hermanson gets hot again, Pavano gets healthy, rookie Peter Bergeron continues to improve and Steve Kline holds down the fort, the Expos could hang late into the wild-card race. 10. Are the Cardinals vulnerable? Not really. Playing in baseball's weakest division, St. Louis should cruise to the division title. Fernando Tatis is back, J.D. Drew is swinging the bat well, Ray Lankford is starting to produce and Big Mac is the still the most devastating hitter in the game. Tony La Russa just needs to keep everyone healthy, figure out the roles for Matt Morris and Alan Benes, not throw out Rick Ankiel's arm and decide if Darryl Kile is the No. 1 starter for the first playoff game. David Schoenfield is baseball editor at ESPN.com. | ALSO SEE Ten second-half questions for the AL And the winners are ... | |||||
