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TODAY: Monday, May 15
How will Griffey hit in Cincinnati?
By David Schoenfield
ESPN.com

So, Ken Griffey Jr. is now a member of the Cincinnati Reds. How will he do with his new team, in his new ballpark and in a new league?

ESPN.com's crack research staff crunched the numbers to find the answer.

First of all, let's clear up one perception. It's a common viewpoint that Griffey benefited from the cozy dimensions of the Kingdome. Such is not really the case. Over his career, he's hit 26 more home runs at home than on the road. Since 1993, the first year he reached the 40-homer barrier, Griffey hit just 13 more dingers at home -- about two per year.

Ken Griffey
Ken Griffey Jr. led the American League in home runs the past three seasons.

How will he do in Cinergy Field?

Let's use three-year averages as a performance baseline. For Griffey, his three-year totals average to 53 home runs (28 at home, 25 on the road), a .291 batting average and .611 slugging percentage.

Let's start with those 28 home runs. Over the past three years, the Kingdome increased home run productivity by eight percent over the league average. However, it increased home run productivity for left-handers by just four percent.

That means that in a neutral AL park, Griffey would have averaged about 27 home runs. Now, how do those home runs translate to the NL? Is the pitching "easier" to hit home runs off in the AL? Even though the perception is that the AL is the power league, home run rates between the two leagues were nearly identical in 1999 -- 2.23 HRs per game in the NL, 2.33 HRs per game in the AL.

So, any league adjustment would be minute, but we do need to factor in Cinergy Field. Over the past three seasons, Cinergy Field has boosted home runs by left-handed hitters 13 percent. Thirteen percent of 27 is four, so that boosts Griffey to 31 home runs at home.

Now, how do those 25 home runs on the road translate to the NL? Again, even though the AL seems to have "smaller" ballparks, home run rates are close. So, we'll leave his home runs on the road at 25, giving him 56 overall when added to his 31 long balls at home.

What about his batting average? He's hit .291 over the past three years, .296 at home, .287 on the road. The overall AL average last year was .275, as compared to .268 in the NL. Of course, most of that difference is due to pitchers hitting in the NL.

Cinergy is a turf field like the Kingdome and deflates batting average by about three percent, so we can probably expect Griffey to lose a few points off his overall mark.

One other thing to keep in mind. Here are Griffey's rate totals (batting average, on-base percentage and slugging percentage) since 1994, skipping 1995 when he broke his wrist.

Year    AVG   OBP   SLG
1994   .323  .402  .674
1996   .303  .392  .628
1997   .304  .382  .646
1998   .284  .365  .611
1999   .285  .384  .576

The numbers do paint Griffey as a player in a slight decline. His slugging percentage is nearly 100 points off his 1994 peak -- much of that decrease coming from a 38-point decrease in batting average. Has he gotten too homer-happy, perhaps?

Most of Junior's drop last year was due to his struggles against lefties. He hit just .229 with eight homers off left-handers, after pounding them for 21 long balls in 1998. Just a one-year aberration? Perhaps.

And, of course, how Junior adjusts to the pitching patterns of his new league remains to be seen. Our best guess? We'll say 55 home runs with a .281 batting average.

 


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