The Numbers
	2002 record: 80-81, .497 (15th overall) Runs scored: 710, 8th in NL Runs allowed: 727, 9th in NL Run differential: -17 (17th overall) Starters' ERA: 4.28, 10th in NL Bullpen ERA: 3.96, 11th in NL Payroll (Opening Day): $57.9 million (17th overall) Attendance: 1.62 million (25th overall) 3-year record: 231-254, .476 (18th overall)

2002 in review
What went right?
The Phillies took a small step backward in 2002, but a few players did make strides forward, one expected and one a complete surprise. When the Phillies made slugger Pat Burrell their first pick in the 1998 draft, they knew he had power. Last year he learned a little patience as well (just a little), and became the team's cleanup hitter for probably the next decade with his 37 homers and 116 RBI.

On the mound, the team's best starting pitcher wasn't even supposed to be in the rotation when Opening Day came. Vicente Padilla, one of the four players (and the only one left) acquired in the Curt Schilling megadeal, was being groomed as a future closer. He was used as a starter in winter ball, and -- voila -- by attrition the Phillies needed him to start. Fourteen wins and an All-Star berth later, he's a strength at the top of the rotation. Southpaw Randy Wolf was arguably better, as his ERA was lower and he threw more innings, but he got little run support (only five major league pitchers received fewer runs) and won only 11 games.

Finally, the perceived fluke that was Jose Mesa's dominant 2001 season was proven wrong, as he broke Mitch Williams' club record for saves by registering 45.

What went wrong?
The biggest thing to go wrong in 2002 may not have been on the field at all, but the poor handling of the Scott Rolen situation. The free agent-to-be wanted out of Angryville to test the market and go to a winner. Rolen and manager Larry Bowa couldn't get along, and finally a trade for less than market value was worked out with the Cardinals. The key guy in the deal, young lefty Bud Smith, has now had more arm surgeries than Phillies outings.

But on the field, there were issues as well. A few pitchers originally slated to lead the rotation didn't get the job done. Projected ace Robert Person got lit on Opening Day, and things never got much better. In fact, Person's only memorable day came not on the mound, but in a June game vs. the Expos when he homered twice and knocked in seven runs to earn his first of only four wins on the season. Youngster Brandon Duckworth didn't follow up his solid two months of 2001 with success, winning only three games after the break with a 6.48 ERA and eventually getting a demotion to the bullpen. And the team's big free agent signing, Terry Adams, was essentially only good for five innings as a starter, though he salvaged his final stats with excellent relief work in September.

At the plate, the top of the order was a nightmare, as the Phillie Phanatic reached base more than centerfielder/leadoff hitter Doug Glanville (miserable .292 on-base percentage). Shortstop Jimmy Rollins took a step backward in his sophomore season. Bobby Abreu's homers, RBI and steals all were down from 2001. And don't even ask about the right side of the infield, where Travis Lee and Marlon Anderson combined for only 21 homers and will each play elsewhere, if they're lucky, in 2003.

In retrospect, the critical decisions were:
1. Realizing Padilla was more than just a rotation stopgap. There remain questions as to whether he can be a 200-inning guy year after year, especially after running out of gas the second half, but with all the other former Diamondbacks from the Schilling trade bombing, Padilla salvaged the deal.

2. Finally cutting bait with Rolen. Could the Phillies have received more than sore armed starter Bud Smith, powerless infielder Placido Polanco and free agent-to-be Mike Timlin had they acted before the season? Or waited longer? Probably. But the Rolen debacle likely contributed to the team's bad start and was a stain on the first half of the season. The Phillies went 18-10 in August, without Rolen.

3. Being patient with future stars Brett Myers and Marlon Byrd. Slammed by a bad start, the Phillies waited to bring right-handed starter Myers to the majors until July, and Byrd was kept in the minors until September. Neither performed very well, but both have big expectations ahead.

Looking ahead to 2003
Three key questions
1. With the middle of the order thumpers in place (a great big Philly hello to Jim Thome!), will anyone be able to set the table for them? Yes, Mr. Rollins, we're talking to you. Can Rollins raise that .245 average and .306 on-base percentage, or is he really Glanville in disguise?

	Jose Mesa Relief pitcher Philadelphia Phillies Profile
	2002 SEASON STATISTICS GM IP W-L SV SO ERA 74 75.2 4-6 45 64 2.97

2. Can a questionable bullpen survive another year? Yes, Mr. Mesa, we're talking to you. The Phillies closer did manage to save 45 games, but he blew nine others, got out of more jams than Houdini and his ERA was 3.58 after the break. Also, he's 36 and in a contract year. The rest of the pen is even less reliable, led by lefties Dan Plesac (now 41) and Rheal Cormier (5.25 ERA) and failed starter Adams.

3. What happens if there's another 9-18 April? Yes, Mr. Bowa, we're talking to you. The Phillies should be better this season, if only because of the additions of Thome and new ace Kevin Millwood. This only adds to the pressure on Bowa, who would seem safe in his third season, but may not be. This team cannot afford another single-digit-wins opening month.

Can expect to play better
Rollins and Abreu seemed to feel the pressure last season, and each underachieved. Bowa merely expects each player to get on base and run wild, and let others swing for the fences. Meanwhile, Duckworth never projected as a staff ace, since he doesn't throw especially hard, but likewise will have pressure removed from him now that he's the fourth or fifth starter. Surely another ERA of 5.41 would be surprising.

Can expect to play worse
Last year at this time the word was Mesa had never put together back-to-back successful seasons before, so why expect it at age 35. Now he's older, so should we expect three straight? Also, nobody expects Thome's numbers to slip to Travis Lee levels, but another 49 homers seem out of the question. Remember, Thome was merely average in road games last year, has had back problems and will be booed on Opening Day if he dares to strike out. One must expect a period of adapting to the new, more angry surroundings.

Stats Corner
Pat Burrell (above) led the Phillies in home runs (37), RBI (116) and slugging percentage (.544) in 2002. Randy Wolf posted a 3.20 ERA, eighth-best in the NL while also logging a career high 210.2 innings pitched. Bobby Abreu drew 104 walks, the fourth straight season he's had 100 or more. He was also eighth in the NL in on-base percentage (.413). Vicente Padilla was 10-5, 3.05 in the first half, but just 4-6, 3.60 in the second half.

Projected lineup
SS Jimmy Rollins
2B Placido Polanco
1B Jim Thome
LF Pat Burrell
RF Bobby Abreu
C Mike Lieberthal
3B David Bell
CF Marlon Byrd

Rotation
Kevin Millwood
Randy Wolf
Vicente Padilla
Brett Myers
Brandon Duckworth

Closer
Jose Mesa

A closer look
With the Phillies making a few significant offseason moves, and this being the last year at dilapidated Veterans Stadium before the joy of moving into a new park, this is a critical campaign ahead. The Phillies won't be permitted to win only 80 games this season by their fans. Bowa may be a franchise icon, but there will be little patience if the Braves are up 20 games again at the break.

But is this team really that much better? Can it win 90 games and compete for a playoff berth? Let's go position by position and break the team down as it goes for its third winning season since 1987.

Catchers: Mike Lieberthal, Todd Pratt or free agent signee
Now 30 and seemingly a bit past his prime, Lieberthal remains a respected handler of pitchers and capable of hitting 20 home runs. With his messy knee injury of 2001 behind him, and the expectations of hitting fifth in the order gone, Lieberthal can settle in and make the team happy by staying healthy duplicating his 2002 numbers. Pratt's no Johnny Estrada (chuckle, chuckle), but certainly capable of catching 30 games. He even hit .311 with a startling .449 on base last year.

Corner infielders: Jim Thome, David Bell, possibly Dave Hollins
Thome will find out early that playing in Philly is another world away from Cleveland. The Phillies salivated over the free agent slugger, convinced him that they could be winners by offering more money than he ever imagined, and now will expect huge power numbers. Thome might want to call Mike Schmidt and ask him how he dealt with being booed for striking out even though he was having a two-homer game. How Thome deals with that and his back problems will mean everything. Bell actually was signed before Thome, and is also pretty important. He'll never match Rolen's bat, but can contribute 20 home runs and some clutch hitting from the bottom of the order. In the field, Bell actually had a higher fielding percentage than annual Gold Glove candidate Rolen (.973 to .965), but doesn't have the same range. The Phillies strongly desired Bell's veteran leadership, whatever that's worth. Hollins, assuming he can avoid being bit by spiders this year, is merely a pinch hitter at this point of his career. Look for the Phils to sign another first baseman/pinch hitter before the season, maybe bringing back John Mabry.

Middle infielders: Placido Polanco, Jimmy Rollins, Tomas Perez
With Marlon Anderson on his way out of town, Polanco moves over from third base, where his lack of power was glaring. At second, Polanco is a better fit. A top-notch fielder wherever he plays, Polanco doesn't walk or strike out much and figures to bat second for the Phils. Rollins needs to spend more time beating out ground balls and bunts than going for home runs. He's capable of 50 steals and more than 100 runs if he decides to take a walk once in a while. The underrated Perez can play either middle infield spot effectively.

Outfielders: Bobby Abreu, Pat Burrell, Marlon Byrd, Ricky Ledee, Eric Valent
In Abreu and Burrell, the Phillies have two of the best corner outfielders in the league, and little to worry about. On this team Abreu might be best suited to lead off, but he refuses. Nevertheless, he's guaranteed to get on base at least 40 percent of the time and flirt with 30-30 numbers. Burrell, depending on where he hits in the order, could knock in 140 runs. Byrd, a 30-30 player in the minors, should vie for top rookie honors. Unless Rollins fails to get on base, Byrd is likely to hit at the bottom of the order, where there's less pressure to perform. Scouts aren't nearly as high on Byrd as they were this time last year, after he continued to show a clear lack of on-base prowess in Triple A and did very little in 35 at-bats in the majors. But he'll be given time. The reserve outfielders don't figure to see much time, though Ledee should get 30 or so starts in center field against tough right-handed pitching.

Rotation: Kevin Millwood, Randy Wolf, Vicente Padilla, Brett Myers, Brandon Duckworth
On paper, the Phillies have never had a starting five like this, even in the three playoff seasons of the last 23 years. Millwood recovered nicely from arm problems to win 18 games for Atlanta, and now is a Phillie due to shocking financial circumstances. Just remember Millwood was a third starter for the Braves; can he all of a sudden be an ace? As for Wolf and Padilla, the Phillies figure they know what they've got. Wolf projects as the safer bet, due to his strong strikeout totals and pedigree. Padilla could be a one-year wonder, depending on how his arm holds up. An All-Star who was 10-5 with a sub-3.00 ERA at the break, he slumped in the second half and barely topped 200 innings. Myers ended up 4-5, praised for his maturity but underwhelming others with his average fastball. Duckworth could win 12 games or be banished to the bullpen. Journeymen Dave Coggin and Joe Roa could see some starts. From one to five, this rotation could be the division's best, or it could be a disappointment.

Bullpen: Jose Mesa, Rheal Cormier, Terry Adams, Carlos Silva, Dan Plesac
With no guarantees in a bullpen seemingly overhauled year after year, this is clearly the team's biggest worry. It wouldn't be surprising to see the Phillies look for another veteran right-hander to help set Mesa up. Mesa will blow his share of save chances, but the key to the pen could be Adams, who is clearly better suited as an eighth-inning guy, where he flourished with a 2.38 ERA and .186 opponents batting average against last season.

Wrapping up
Normally teams make a big run for a division title the first year in a new ballpark, not in the last year of one. However, it's clear GM Ed Wade feels this is a team that should compete. The Phillies spent more than $100 million on Thome and Bell, and Millwood might earn $10 million for this season and then move on. Bottom line is the team is improved over 2002 personnel-wise, and though there are questions in a number of places, led by the top of the order and the bullpen, it should be good enough to win 90 games and compete for the NL East title. Of course, didn't we all say that about the Mets before 2002 began?

Eric Karabell is the managing editor of ESPN Fantasy Games.