The Numbers
	2002 record: 67-95, .414 (tied for 24th overall) Runs scored: 667, 13th in AL Runs allowed: 773, 7th in AL Run differential: -106 (24th overall) Starters' ERA: 4.95, 9th in AL Bullpen ERA: 3.49, 2nd in AL Payroll (Opening Day): $60.5 million (16th overall) Attendance: 2.68 million (10th overall) 3-year record: 204-281, .421 (25th overall)

2002 in review
What went right?
The first 126 games. On Aug. 23, the Orioles beat the Blue Jays for their fourth straight win, improved to a respectable 63-63 and had their sights set on their first winning season in five years. Rookie pitchers Rodrigo Lopez, signed out of the Mexican Winter League, and Jorge Julio made big-time contributions.

Lopez went 15-9 with a 3.57 ERA and finished second in the AL Rookie of the Year voting. Julio emerged as one of the games premier closers, saving 25 games with an impressive 1.99 ERA. The development of young outfielder Jay Gibbons, whose 28 homers was second on the team, and catcher Geronimo Gil, who gunned down 36.5 percent of basestealers, provided hope that the team was headed in the right direction in the post-Cal Ripken era.

What went wrong?
The last six weeks. After reaching the .500 mark on Aug. 23, the Orioles finished the season 4-32, the worst 36-game stretch in franchise history -- and the worst by any major league team since the 1899 Cleveland Spiders. The pitching staff labored while the offense failed to score more than two runs in 21 of those games.

Injuries took their toll on a team that already lacked depth. Outfielders Jeff Conine (hamstring) and Gary Matthews Jr. (wrist) and shortstop Mike Bordick (knee) spent considerable time on the DL. First baseman David Segui appeared in only 26 games due to a wrist injury, while former 20-game winner Scott Erickson had to be shut down for the final month. It all adds up to another fourth-place finish in the American League East, the O's fifth straight. And while Camden Yards still draws without Cal, Baltimore fans are tiring of mediocrity. Attendance (2,682,917) was the lowest for a full season in the ballpark's 11-year history.

In retrospect, the critical decisions were:
1. Mining the Winter Leagues. With a depleted farm system, the Orioles found the 26-year-old Lopez, a washout from the Padres' organization, leading Mexico's Culiacan Tomato Growers to the Caribbean Series title. In Venezuela, the 23-year-old Julio, acquired from Montreal in late 2000 for Ryan Minor -- who's now playing Independent League ball -- showed he deserved a shot at the big leagues. Both excelled from the start for the Orioles. Lopez quickly became the team's ace, going 12-3 with a 2.94 ERA through July. Julio saved his first game on April 16 at Yankee Stadium and never looked back. This season both will have to make adjustments though to sustain success.

	Rodrigo Lopez Starting pitcher Baltimore Orioles Profile
	2002 SEASON STATISTICS GM IP W-L BB SO ERA 33 196.2 15-9 62 136 3.57

2. Failing to rebuild. In the late 1990s, with the Ripken era nearing an end, the Orioles needed to establish a new identity. With little star power and a suspect farm system, they really needed to start rebuilding. Instead, owner Peter Angelos and GM Syd Thrift chose to recycle former stars on the downside, and now the entire organization is paying the price.

First the O's signed Albert Belle, whose career ended prematurely due to a hip injury. In 1998 Baltimore inked Erickson to a five-year deal. He won 31 games in 1998-99, but in August 2000 underwent Tommy John surgery. This season, the last year of his deal, the 35-year-old right-hander will try to battle back from a torn labrum in his right shoulder. In 2000, Baltimore signed David Segui to a four-year contract and Pat Hentgen to a two-year deal. Segui has missed 216 games since, and Hentgen, the 1996 Cy Young Award winner, has pitched in only 13 games and had Tommy John surgery last August.

3. Way down on the farm. Baltimore once boasted the model minor league system, which prepared solid major-leaguers the Oriole Way. But in the last decade the front office let the farm system go to seed. Last season, the team's top three affiliates -- Triple A Rochester, Double A Bowie and Class A Frederick -- combined to finish 109 games below .500. After 42 years with Baltimore, Rochester left to join the Twins' organization, leaving the Orioles with Ottawa as their new affiliate. Baseball America tabbed hard-throwing left-hander Erik Bedard as the organization's top prospect, despite the fact that he'll miss the entire 2003 season after undergoing Tommy John surgery last summer.

Looking ahead to 2003
Three key questions
1. Where's the O? They're not called the O's for their lack of offensive production, but the term does describe Baltimore's line score on many nights. Last season, the Orioles had the worst team batting average, second-lowest OBP and second fewest walks in the AL, all signs of an undisciplined approach. And the biggest offensive gap is right smack in the middle of the order. Where's the beef? New GMs Mike Flanagan and Jim Beattie tried to address this problem, but missed out on such big-name free agent sluggers as Hideki Matsui, Cliff Floyd and Ivan Rodriguez. Showing their free-spending days are over, the Orioles couldn't even come to terms with Jose Cruz Jr. So they'll need 30 to 35 homers from Gibbons and healthy and productive seasons from veterans Segui and Conine to give their pitching staff even a chance.

2. How's the top of the rotation? Former hurlers Beattie and Flanagan have placed a priority on pitching. Free-agent signee Omar Daal is Baltimore's first regular left-handed starter since Jimmy Key in 1998. Daal will compete with Sidney Ponson for the second spot behind Lopez. The not-so-Big Three could be shaky considering Lopez tired late in the season (4.99 ERA in August-September) and Ponson spent time on the DL again. Daal was 13-7 as a starter with Philadelphia in 2001, but lost 19 games in 2000. With injury riddled Hentgen and Erickson behind them, the front three may have to carry the staff. But the rotation can't get worse than last season when Baltimore starters combined for a horrendous 42-75 mark with a 4.95 ERA.

3. Can owner Angelos remain patient? In the past, Angelos has been portrayed as a meddler who clashed with former GMs Pat Gillick and Frank Wren. Then while Thrift ran the operation, Angelos was criticized for being too far removed and giving Thrift and company too much power. One thing is certain: Angelos has never been patient enough to allow a rebuilding effort, instead trying to buy his team back into contention. It's that that has turned the Orioles into one of baseball's worst franchises. The hiring of Flanagan and Beattie shows that Angelos may be willing to be patient and let his baseball braintrust do its job.

Stats Corner
Jorge Julio (above) had 25 saves in 2002, two short of the Orioles' club record set by Gregg Olson in 1989. The O's turned 173 double plays, most in the American League. Rodrigo Lopez was especially impressive in July as he posted a 6-0 record and a 2.57 ERA in the month. The Orioles batted .246, finishing last in the AL in batting average for the second straight season.

Can expect to play better
Julio had a breakout season and could have finished higher than third in the AL Rookie of the Year voting if his team had given him more save chances. He saved his 25th and last game on Aug 15 before the team collapsed. Julio has a blazing fastball that can reach triple digits, which makes his splitter even more difficult to hit. He should improve his K/BB ratio of 55/27 and save 10 more games if his teammates provide the opportunities.

Can expect to play worse
Lopez could fall victim to the sophomore jinx. At the least, it will be hard for him to improve on a 15-win season now that hitters have had a chance to study his tendencies and make adjustments. The Orioles can only hope it was merely fatigue that led to Lopez's 4.99 ERA over the final two months and not the league catching up to him.

Projected lineup
2B Jerry Hairston Jr.
CF Gary Matthews Jr .
DH David Segui/Chris Richard
3B Tony Batista
RF Jay Gibbons
1B Jeff Conine
LF Melvin Mora/Marty Cordova
C Geronimo Gil
SS Deivi Cruz

Rotation
Rodrigo Lopez
Omar Daal
Sidney Ponson
Pat Hentgen
Scott Erickson/Jason Johnson

Closer
Jorge Julio

A closer look
The Orioles came up short on a number of free agents this winter, but not in their new front office leadership. Owner Peter Angelos finally showed de facto GM Syd Thrift the door and on Dec. 4 hired former Orioles Cy Young winner Mike Flanagan and ex-Expos GM Jim Beattie as personnel VPs. The change at the top gives a moribund franchise hope for a return to glory.

Remember the Orioles of 1996-97? Those teams were loaded with talent: Roberto Alomar, Rafael Palmeiro, Cal Ripken, Mike Mussina, Armando Benitez. The O's were a Marquis Grissom homer (and maybe a Jeffrey Maier catch) away from going to the World Series.

But from 1998-2002, the Orioles are 87 games below .500. Over the last two years, they're 130-193. Tickets at Camden Yards have gone from "I need two" to "Anyone need two?" Many of the problems come from the front office signing such overpriced, underachieving veteran free agents as Bobby Bonilla, Will Clark, Delino DeShields and Albert Belle (who the team is still paying).

In 2001, Ripken's final season, the team slogan was "Bring the kids to see the kids." Problem was, the rebuilding should have started long before then. And at the end of '01, the signing of Marty Cordova and the re-signing of Jeff Conine -- both retreads -- proved the organization didn't have the youngsters ready to step in.

Hiring Beattie and Flanagan shows the team is finally ready to rebuild through pitching, defense and young talent rather than just throw big money at veterans. As an example of that commitment, this winter the duo pursued but ultimately passed on free agents Ivan Rodriguez and Jose Cruz Jr. when they considered the price too steep. No doubt Baltimore could use I-Rod's bat in the heart of its lineup, but the O's weren't about to spend $10 million per year on a catcher who hasn't played a full season since 1999. Flanagan and Beattie also didn't want Pudge to use the Orioles as a one-year showcase for his next contract. They offered a three-year deal worth about $18 million. I-Rod instead accepted a one-year, $10 million contract from Florida with the chance to become a free agent again next winter.

Flanagan and Beattie turned their attention to pitching, signing Omar Daal and reliever Kerry Ligtenberg. They decided not to offer salary arbitration to Mike Bordick and signed shortstop Deivi Cruz, who's younger and capable of driving in more runs. The GM duo also focused on the farm system, hiring former Reds assistant GM Darrell Rodgers to replace Don Buford as Director of Minor League Operations.

Flanagan and Beattie are already planning for next offseason, when Albert Belle and Scott Erickson's contracts finally expire. At that point, Baltimore may still be a difficult pitch to free agents, but with Flanagan and Beattie at the helm, the Orioles will at least have a solid direction and a post-Cal identity. For a team mired in mediocrity since 1998, that's a good start.

Matthew Pike covers baseball for ESPN The Magazine.