System overview
Sometimes, you just get caught in the Cogs of Fate.

Boasting one of the best player development programs in baseball, the Mariners entered '02 full of optimism. The major league team had won 116 games, and the minor league system was thriving. Although the Mariners had what would normally be considered a strong season, winning 93 games, they didn't make the playoffs. And from the player development perspective, a lot of things went wrong.

Injuries struck down several top prospects. Ryan Anderson and Jeff Heaverlo both missed the year with torn labrums, while injuries also stalled the development of outfielder Chris Snelling and pitcher Rafael Soriano. Soriano's sore shoulder was especially troubling, since he had thrown 47 decent innings for the Mariners before going down. To make matters worse, the club was unable to sign first-round pick John Mayberry, Jr., blowing a hole in the '02 draft class.

Despite this run of bad luck, the Mariners retain a strong farm system, with significant depth. Snelling and Soriano should be back at full strength, and although the status of Heaverlo and Anderson is still uncertain, there are more pitching prospects on the way up. Hitters like Jose Lopez and Shin-Soo Choo could be impact players, and there is a wealth of decent-looking pitchers. The Mariners are very active in Latin America and Asia, which helps make up for a few draft mistakes. The run of shoulder trouble in the organization is troubling, however, and is something that team officials should look closely at, in case it is related to coaching or conditioning problems.

2002 amateur draft
Drafting players is just the first step. You have to sign them too.

The Mariners picked John Mayberry Jr., a high school outfielder from Kansas City, in the first round. But he had a Stanford scholarship in his pocket, and elected to take it, unable to come to terms on a signing bonus. Third-round choice Eddy Martinez-Esteve, another high school outfielder, also failed to sign, the Miami native going to college at Florida State instead. The rest of the Seattle draft class was heavily high school in nature, giving little "talent cushion" for the failure to sign these two picks, and leaving the lower levels of the system in danger of depth depravation for the next year.

Second-round choice Josh Womack, a high school outfielder from San Diego, is very toolsy, but scouts say he is unpolished and will take time to develop. Fourth-round choice Randy Frye, a high school lefty from Michigan, throws in the low 90s and has a good breaking ball, but pitched very poorly in rookie ball. Another prep lefty, Kendall Bergdall from Oklahoma, has a live arm but is inconsistent and will need lots of instruction. One intriguing player is seventh-round pick Evel Bastida-Martinez, a Cuban defector. He is 23 years old, but made a positive early impression, and could be a surprise.

This was not a good draft. Losing two top picks was a big blow, and the rest of the class looks uninspired.

Top prospects
Players in the "Will Help Soon" section could see significant major league action in 2003. Players in the "Will Help Someday" section shouldn't reach the majors until '04 or later, though of course that can change. Players are listed alphabetically. No 2002 draftees are listed.

WILL HELP SOON
Rafael Soriano, RHP: Still technically a rookie. Blistering stuff, posts high strikeout rates with decent control, and should develop into a Freddy Garcia-type if his shoulder stays healthy.

WILL HELP SOMEDAY
Travis Blackley, LHP: Australian, went 5-9 but with good 3.49 ERA, 152/44 K/BB mark in 121 innings at San Bernadino, Class A. Throws 87-89 mph, with a strong curveball and changeup combo.

Shin-Soo Choo, OF: Future leadoff man, drew 79 walks while stealing 37 bases and hitting .303 in Class A. Has some power, too, could be good for 10-15 homers with maturity. Very strong throwing arm.

Rett Johnson, RHP: Went 13-5 with 3.63 ERA in 28 starts last year, fanning 138 in 154 innings, mostly in Double-A. Works with 90-93 mph sinker, with a nasty slider. Usually throws strikes, but will need to improve his change.

Jose Lopez, SS: Hit .324 at San Bernadino, with 31 steals and 39 doubles. Excellent defense, and did extremely well considering his age (19) in the advanced California League.

Clint Nageotte, RHP: May have the best slider in the minor leagues. Also throws a 93 mph fastball, though he doesn't use it enough. Fanned 214 in 165 innings in the Cal League, but also walked 68 and posted a 4.54 ERA.

Chris Snelling, OF: Raked the ball in Double-A, hitting .326 through 89 at-bats, earning a brief promotion to the majors, where he blew out his knee. Injury-plagued, at least partially due to his all-out style of play, but a fine all-around hitter when healthy.

Jamal Strong, OF: Blazing speed, swiped 46 bases in Double-A, while also drawing 62 walks. Hit .278, but was much better after a slow start. Probably lacks sufficient power to start every day, but his speed, defense, and on-base ability are roster assets.

Aaron Taylor, RHP: Closer of the Future? His 95 mph fastball and 93 strikeouts in 77 innings of Double-A look that way. Saved 24 with 2.34 ERA.

KEY SLEEPERS
Ryan Anderson, LHP and Jeff Heaverlo, RHP: I'm listing them as sleepers because they will be left off many prospect lists. Reports are that Heaverlo's labrum rehab has gone well, and he should be back to full strength at some point later this spring. He has a fine combo of stuff and command. Anderson is more speculative; he's torn his labrum twice now. His recovery is going slower, and he probably isn't draft-worthy in any but the deepest fantasy leagues, and only then if you have room to gamble.

Other names to know
Greg Dobbs, 3B; Willie Bloomquist, INF; Ismael Castro, 2B; Michael Garciaparra, SS; Ruben Castillo, SS; Craig Anderson, LHP; Brian Sweeney, RHP; Ryan Christianson, C; Chris Mears, RHP; Matt Thornton, LHP; John Lindsey, 1B; Jared Hoerman, RHP; Juan Done, RHP; Ryan Ketchner, LHP; Bobby Livingston, LHP.

John Sickels is the author of the 2002 Minor League Scouting Notebook, and is now working on the 2003 Baseball Prospect Book. His biography of Bob Feller will be published next spring. He lives in Lawrence, Kansas, with his wife, son, and two cats. You can send John questions or comments at JASickels@aol.com, or you can visit his homepage at JohnSickels.com.