The Numbers
	2002 record: 93-69, .574 (tied for 9th overall) Runs scored: 814, 6th in AL Runs allowed: 699, 5th in AL Run differential: +115 (9th overall) Starters' ERA: 4.26, 5th in AL Bullpen ERA: 3.64, 4th in AL Payroll (Opening Day): $80.3 million (8th overall) Attendance: 3.54 million (1st overall) 3-year record: 300-186, .617 (1st overall)

2002 in review
What went right?
Coming off 2001's record 116-win season, the Mariners once again stormed out of the gate, going 18-8 in April and jumping to a 3-game division lead over the A's (the Angels were a distant 6 1/2 games back). By the All-Star break, Seattle still led Anaheim by 3 games and Oakland by 5. Ichiro proved his MVP season was no fluke, hitting .321, more than doubling his walk total (from 30 to 68) and scoring 111 runs. John Olerud was again one of the most underrated players in baseball, reaching base at a .403 clip, knocking in 102 runs and winning a Gold Glove. Relievers Arthur Rhodes and Shiggy Hasegawa went a combined 18-7, Jamie Moyer was masterful at age 39 (13-8, 3.38) and Joel Pineiro was excellent in his first full year in the rotation (14-7, 3.24).

What went wrong?
In some years and some cities, 93 wins is cause to tip over cars and dance in the streets. But for the Mariners, a 38-36 record after the All-Star break and 93 wins meant third place behind the A's and Angels. Pitching was the main culprit; the staff ERA rose from 3.67 to 4.56 after the break, with Freddy Garcia suffering the most important collapse (11-5, 3.44 to 5-5, 5.66).

On the offensive side, Ichiro was clearly troubled by a bad knee in the second half and his average dropped from .357 to .280. Ruben Sierra, a first-half Ponce De Leon with 11 homers and 51 RBI, had just nine RBI after the break. New third baseman Jeff Cirillo offered nothing at the plate (.249 average, 26 extra-base hits) and James Baldwin offered nothing in the rotation (a 5.28 ERA).

In retrospect, the critical decisions were:
1. Replacing David Bell with Cirillo at third base. While Bell earned $1.75 million from the Giants and had a respectable .762 OPS (on-base + slugging), Cirillo earned $6.375 million from the Mariners and had an Ordonez-like .629 OPS (that's Rey, not Magglio). Not only did Cirillo sink the offense, but he's signed through 2005 and also cost the team Denny Stark, who would have been a much better rotation option than Baldwin.

	Jeff Cirillo Third baseman Seattle Mariners Profile
	2002 SEASON STATISTICS GM AB R HR RBI AVG 146 485 51 6 54 .249

2. Not making a major deal before the July 31 trading deadline (Ismael Valdes was later acquired in August). Two problems here: first, by mid-June there were already reports from scouts about the Mariners looking tired (this proved true in the second half) and it was apparent an extra hitter or starting pitcher was necessary; second, it led to CEO Howard Lincoln's suggestion that the team's business plan wasn't to win the World Series, but merely to be competitive. Surprisingly, this failed to ignite the troops.

3. Never finding a consistent No. 4 or No. 5 starter. Collectively, Seattle's starters were fifth in the AL in ERA, but when factoring in the friendly confines of Safeco Field, Seattle's starters drop a couple notches to mediocre at best. Sticking with Baldwin for so long was the most egregious decision, when the team had better options.

Looking ahead to 2003
Three key questions
1. The starting rotation must improve to compete with Oakland and Anaheim, but there are serious questions for all five projected starters. Jamie Moyer: Can he repeat his big year at 40? Freddy Garcia: Can he fix the bad mechanics or pitch-tipping or whatever plagued him in the second half? Joel Pineiro: Can he stay healthy as his workload increases? Ryan Franklin: Is he capable of being more than a spot starter/long reliever? Rafael Soriano: Is his fastball/slider combo more suited to bullpen work?

2. Goodbye, Sweet Lou, hello Bob Melvin. Seattle has won more games than any team over the past three seasons and Lou Piniella certainly deserves some portion of that success. In one sense, Melvin steps into an easy situation: a veteran team with solid players across the board. The biggest question is how he'll deal with adversity when it strikes. If he's smart, he'll rely on pitching coach Bryan Price to continue running the pitching staff. And if Melvin is really smart, he'll understand park effects and realize Seattle's offense is actually pretty good and not panic with too many "small-ball" tactics.

3. Are they too old? With Ben Davis slated for another year of backup duty behind Dan Wilson, the only regular younger than 28 is Carlos Guillen. Edgar Martinez is 40. Moyer is 40. Olerud is 34. Bret Boone is 33. The top bench players (Greg Colbrunn, Mark McLemore and John Mabry) are all on the wrong side of 30. The four top relievers are all at least 33 and two (Kazuhiro Sasaki and Jeff Nelson) are coming off surgery. Only Pineiro and Garcia are young players with prominent roles. This isn't necessarily a bad thing; but old teams can decline rapidly and the M's will have trouble withstanding a major injury or two.

Stats Corner
According to Baseball Prospectus' park-adjusted hitting statistics, John Olerud (above) was the sixth-best hitter in the AL last season. The Mariners were fourth in the AL in runs scored on the road (but just 17 behind league-leading New York and Boston). Joel Pineiro and Jamie Moyer ranked 8th and 9th in the AL in ERA. Only two AL regulars had a worse OPS than Jeff Cirillo: Brent Abernathy and Neifi Perez.

Can expect to play better
Cirillo. Sure his bat speed looked like that of Tom Berenger in "Major League," but he can't possibly be that bad again ... or can he? Cirillo on the road in 2002: .278 average, .318 OBP, .371 slugging; Cirillo on the road in 2001 (with Colorado): .266 average, .327 OBP, .383 slugging. Hmm, it's likely that Coors Field was masking his decline in the first place. Cirillo has vowed to get stronger this year, but will that make his bat quicker?

Let's go with Freddy Garcia instead.

Can expect to play worse
Moyer. A career-best ERA at age 39? 230 innings pitched at 39? Moyer defies the laws of baseball gravity with his offerings of slow stuff after slow stuff, but he's made it work. Don't expect a severe decline, but look for that ERA to rise and the inning pitched to drop some.

Projected lineup
RF Ichiro Suzuki
LF Randy Winn
1B John Olerud
2B Bret Boone
DH Edgar Martinez
CF Mike Cameron
SS Carlos Guillen
C Dan Wilson/Ben Davis
3B Jeff Cirillo

Rotation
Jamie Moyer
Freddy Garcia
Joel Pineiro
Ryan Franklin
Rafael Soriano/Gil Meche

Closer
Kaz Sasaki

A closer look
First, the good news:

Dropping 23 games in the win column in one season is never viewed as a positive, but consider this: Since divisional play began in 1969, 19 teams have declined at least 20 games in one season (including the 2001-02 Mariners and Cubs); of the previous 17 teams to do so, none declined again in Year 3 (two posted the same record). Those 17 teams increased an average of 7.5 wins in Year 3. If the Mariners win an additional seven games ... well, that's 100 wins, certainly enough to be in the thick of the pennant race.

Now, the bad news:

The Mariners will be the first team since divisional play began to decline by 20 games in one and then decline again the following season.

Five reasons why:

1. The starting pitching, when looking a little closer at the statistics, was the team's weakest part in 2002. GM Pat Gillick did nothing to upgrade this in the offseason.

2. The bullpen will not pitch as well. Kazuhiro Sasaki had offseason elbow surgey, Jeff Nelson had bone chips in his elbow removed last year, Shiggy Hasegawa will not repeat his 1.01 first-half ERA and Arthur Rhodes won't win 10 games again.

3. The team's age. A potential problem.

4. Jeff Cirillo. Trouble.

5. Who is a good bet to play better? If you go down the Mariners' roster, there is no player who should be expected to play better. Sure, Ichiro may hit a little better and Cirillo may bounce back and Mike Cameron may drive in a few more runs and Freddy Garcia may be a little more consistent and Rafael Soriano may turn out to be a good pitcher ... but the Mariners certainly can't expect all those things to happen.

Except ...

Except Joel Pineiro. In his first full year in the majors, Pineiro started the year in relief before moving to the rotation. He finished 14-7 with a 3.24 ERA, including 13-7, 3.52 in 28 starters. He's young (24), proved durable last year (over six innings per start), has excellent stuff and command of several pitches.

The only negative was a second-half decline (3.82 ERA, 14 home runs allowed in 94 innings), that appears a factor of pitching more innings than he ever had.

Does Pineiro have star potential? Among these with most similar career numbers through his current age (from baseball-reference.com) are Pedro Astacio, Scott Erickson, John Denny and Matt Morris.

Last year, Pineiro ranked 16th among AL starters in strikeout-to-walk ratio (2.52 K's per walk), 15th in K's per nine innings (6.30), 11th in groundball/flyball ratio, 15th in lowest batting average allowed (.256), and 19th in OPS allowed (.719).

Prediction: the M's playoff hopes fall on Pineiro's level of improvement. If he improves in all those categories and jumps into the Matt Morris class of pitchers, the M's can contend for the playoffs. If he doesn't, it's 89 wins and third place.

David Schoenfield is an editor for ESPN.com.