The Numbers
	2002 record: 74-88, .457 (20th overall) Runs scored: 742, 10th in AL Runs allowed: 844, 10th in AL Run differential: -102 (23rd overall) Starters' ERA: 4.81, 7th in AL Bullpen ERA: 5.09, 12th in AL Payroll (Opening Day): $78.9 million (9th overall) Attendance: 2.61 million (12th overall) 3-year record: 255-231, .525 (12th overall)

2002 in review
What went right?
After winning their season opener and losing their second game, the Indians won nine straight to make everybody think, "Hey, maybe they don't need Roberto Alomar or Kenny Lofton" (they did, or at least they needed some reasonable facsimiles). Omar Vizquel discovered a whoopin' stick, which he used to whack 13 home runs before August (unfortunately, he homered only once more, probably because of a torn labrum). Ellis Burks avoided the disabled list for the first time since 1998, and at 37 he posted some fine numbers. And then there's Jim Thome, who led the league with 122 walks and a .677 slugging percentage, and would have won the MVP Award if the Indians had won their customary division title.

What went wrong?
After starting the season 11-1, the Indians found their level, losing 15 of their next 17 games. As late as June 5, the Tribe's record stood at .500, but they faded quickly and wound up trading both Bartolo Colon and Chuck Finley; without those two, all hope was lost. The other veterans, Charles Nagy (1-4, 8.88) and Jaret Wright (2-3, 15.71, both struggled badly, and the young pitchers took their fair share of lumps.

In retrospect, the critical decisions were:
1. Giving up on the season. On June 27, the Indians' record stood at 36-41, which left them seven-and-a-half games behind the first-place Twins. Their chances in 2003 looked bad, and 2004 wasn't looking so hot, either. So the Indians punted. First they traded Colon to the Expos, and a few weeks later they traded Finley to the Cardinals.

2. Trading for Matt Lawton. Shortly after acquiring Lawton from the Mets in December of 2001, the Indians signed him to a five-year contract. While Lawton wasn't a complete disaster in his first season with the Tribe, his .342 on-base percentage and .399 slugging percentage were significantly below his career marks, and he also spent a good chunk of time on the DL. On the other hand, Roberto Alomar -- sent to the Mets in the deal for Lawton -- didn't play well in 2002, and the Indians also picked up Billy Traber, now one of their top pitching prospects.

3. Signing Ricky Gutierrez to play second base. As a slugging shortstop for the Cubs, Gutierrez was a pretty valuable player. But as a weak-hitting second baseman for the Indians who spent a third of the season on the disabled list, he wasn't very valuable at all.

Looking ahead to 2003
Three key questions

	C.C. Sabathia Starting pitcher Cleveland Indians Profile
	2002 SEASON STATISTICS GM IP W-L BB SO ERA 33 210 13-11 88 149 4.37

1. Is C.C. Sabathia, still only 22 years old, ready to hold down the No. 1 slot in the rotation? In his second season, Sabathia held his ERA steady -- 4.39 in 2001, 4.37 in 2002 -- but his strikeout rate went down significantly, from 8.5 K's per nine innings to 6.4 per nine. And Sabathia wasn't exactly babied; he topped 100 pitches in 22 of his 33 starts, including his last five of the season.

2. Can Travis Hafner replace Jim Thome? Of course he can't, but that's not really a fair question because nobody this side of Jason Giambi could replace Jim Thome's production. The Indians will be thrilled if Hafner, a rookie just recently acquired in a deal with the Rangers, hits 25 home runs and draws 80 walks. Thome-light. And you know what? He could do it. Hafner was lost among Ranger prospects like Hank Blalock and Mark Teixeira, but his minor-league track record is impeccable.

3. How many fans will stick around? And of those who don't, how many will eventually come back? After years of selling out every single game, the Indians drew only 32,000 fans per game last season; still good, but the trend isn't encouraging. And things are going to get worse before they get better. The Tribe does figure to contend again ... but probably not until 2005. By which point, there might be more empty seats than full at Jacobs Field.

Can expect to play better
Ben Broussard, a hot prospect in the Reds organization, struggled in the majors after coming to Cleveland in a trade. He's not currently slotted for a regular job, but if he gets a chance to play, he'll hit. Matt Lawton spent six weeks on the disabled list and didn't do much when he was in the lineup. Lawton underwent shoulder surgery late in the season, but if he's healthy this spring he'll give the Tribe solid on-base skills, if not big power.

Stats Corner
Ellis Burks (above) hit 32 home runs in 2002, the most he's had in a season since 1997. Jim Thome hit 52 home runs to break Albert Belle's franchise record for homers in a season, and the now-departed Thome also holds the franchise's career record with 334 circuit clouts. Omar Vizquel hit 14 homers, easily a career high, and was well on his way to 20 before an injury got in the way. Right-hander Ryan Drese managed a 10-9 record in 26 starts despite having a 6.55 ERA.

Can expect to play worse
Omar Vizquel set a career high last season with 14 home runs, and he's not likely to match that figure again (though he should remain a pretty good hitter). Even at 38, Ellis Burks remains immensely talented, but the injury-prone slugger isn't likely to rack up more than 500 at-bats again. And Karim Garcia, though he seems to finally have found himself as a major leaguer, isn't going to slug .584 again.

Projected lineup
CF Milton Bradley
SS Omar Vizquel
LF Matt Lawton
DH Ellis Burks
RF Karim Garcia
1B Travis Hafner
3B Ricky Gutierrez
C Josh Bard
2B John McDonald

Rotation
C.C. Sabathia
Brian Anderson
Jason Bere
Ricardo Rodriguez
Dave Burba/Cliff Lee

Closer
Danys Baez

A closer look
Scroll back up for a moment and take a gander at the Tribe's projected rotation for 2003 ...

Can you say, "Rebuilding"?

The "ace" of the staff is C.C. Sabathia, all 22 years of him. Next is Brian Anderson, liberated from the Arizona desert, where he went 10-20 with a 4.98 ERA over the last two seasons. Jason Bere pitched decently enough (11-11, 4.31) for the Cubs in 2001, but in 2002 he went 1-10 with a 5.67 ERA.

Those are the known quantities (if not qualities). And after them? A whole bunch of big question marks.

I've listed Ricardo Rodriguez and Cliff Lee because they're the most likely candidates to win those slots in spring training ... but they're only two of many candidates for the fourth and fifth spots. In addition to Rodriguez and Lee, Indians management has high hopes for Brian Tallet, Jason Davis, Billy Traber, Jason Phillips, and Jake Westbrook. From those seven young pitchers, the Indians hope to get approximately 75 starts.

And considering the questionable futures of Anderson and Bere, the Indians also must hope that at least a few of those seven young pitchers eventually become good pitchers in the major leagues. And the odds aren't all that good. As our man David Schoenfield discovered a few months ago, what the Athletics have done -- developing three top-notch starters within a few years -- is exceptionally rare. Still, the more young pitchers you've got, the better the odds. "Quantity over quality," as Branch Rickey might have said. And thanks to good drafts and good trades, the Indians have both.

Those fine young pitchers, along with some of the best hitting prospects in the game, give the Indians what is perhaps the premier farm system in baseball. The Minnesota Twins appear to be well-positioned to dominate the American League Central for the next year or two. But then the players are going to start getting expensive, some of them will have to go ... and right about then, the rebuilding effort in Cleveland should become a rejoicing effort, as the Indians and their fans enjoy returning to the top of the Central standings.

Senior writer Rob Neyer, whose Big Book of Baseball Lineups will be published next spring by Fireside, will be appearing here regularly and irregularly during the offseason. His e-mail address is rob.neyer@dig.com.