The Numbers
	2002 record: 95-66, .590 (7th overall) Runs scored: 783, 3rd in NL Runs allowed: 616, 2nd in NL Run differential: +167 (4th overall) Starters' ERA: 3.83, 4th in NL Bullpen ERA: 2.89, 2nd in NL Payroll (Opening Day): $78.3 million (10th overall) Attendance: 3.25 million (3rd overall) 3-year record: 281-204, .579 (6th overall)

2002 in review
What went right?
Barry Bonds hit "only" 46 home runs, but nicely compensated with a .370 batting average (to capture the first batting title of his career) and 198 walks (to shatter the single-season MLB record). Not coincidentally, the Giants won 95 games in the regular season, beat Tom Glavine twice in the Division Series, then zipped past the Cardinals in the NLCS to earn a trip to the World Series. After losing two of the first three games in the World Series, the Giants came back to win Games 4 and 5.

What went wrong?
The Giants got nothing from first baseman J.T. Snow, and center field was a disaster until Kenny Lofton came over in a late-July trade with the White Sox. Those problems had all been forgotten by late October, though. October 26, to be precise. That evening in Anaheim, the Giants stood just one victory away from winning their very first World Championship since moving to San Francisco in 1958. And after six-and-a-half innings, they owned a 5-0 lead with one of the league's best bullpens backing it up.

And then the sky fell. The Angels scored three runs in the seventh and three more in the eighth to win, and then they beat the Giants 4-1 in Game 7.

In retrospect, the critical decisions were:
1. 1. Trading for David Bell. In 2001, the Giants thought young Pedro Feliz might be ready to take over at third base, but by 2002 they knew that he wasn't. Bell's no star, but he's a .260 hitter good for 15 or 20 home runs and a fair number of walks.

2. Signing Reggie Sanders to play right field. Sanders wasn't great, but with 18 homers and 85 RBI he represented a significant upgrade over the Giants' right fielders in 2001.

	Livan Hernandez Starting pitcher San Francisco Giants Profile
	2002 SEASON STATISTICS GM IP W-L BB SO ERA 33 216 12-16 71 134 4.38

3. Relying on Livan Hernandez in the postseason. Following a shaky regular season, pitched well against the Braves in the Division Series and moderately well against the Cardinals in the LCS, but got hammered in his two World Series starts.

Looking ahead to 2003
Three key questions
1. Are the kids ready? Everybody thinks that pitchers Kurt Ainsworth and Jesse Foppert both have bright major-league futures. But when does the brightness begin? The Giants are counting on at least one of them to pitch well in 2003.

2. Can Edgardo Alfonzo fill Jeff Kent's spikes? Bonds, of course, is the engine that powers the Giants lineup. But if Bonds was the engine, Kent was the oil; in his six seasons in San Francisco, Kent hit 175 home runs and totaled 689 RBI.

3. Is Bonds immortal? It might seem a bit risky to build your lineup around a 38-year-old slugger who turns 39 in July. But then again, the two best seasons of Bonds' great career came when he was 36 and 37, so there's little reason to think his numbers will drop significantly at 38.

Can expect to play better
He won't be a lot better and he still won't deserve his spot in the lineup, but Snow should rebound from his horrible 2002. Shortstop Rich Aurilia underwent elbow surgery last spring and finished the season with only 15 home runs, but is a good bet to hit 25 homers in 2003.

Stats Corner
Jason Schmidt (above) tied a career high with 13 wins and also registered a career-best 3.45 ERA in 2002. All Barry Bonds. In 2002, the amazing Bonds set major-league records for walks (198) and on-base percentage (.582), and shattered another record by drawing 68 intentional walks. First baseman J.T. Snow's struggles at Pac Bell Park continued. After slugging just .289 with three home runs at home in 2001, Snow slugged .311 with one homer at home in 2002. If Snow can't do better than this, he shouldn't be playing. With 108 RBI, Jeff Kent joined Hall of Famers Willie Mays, Mel Ott, and Bill Terry as the only Giants with at least six straight 100-RBI seasons (Mays and Ott did it eight times, Terry six).

Can expect to play worse
At 37, Benito Santiago hit 16 home runs, more than he'd hit since 1996 (when he blasted 30 with the Phillies); at 38, he'll probably go the way of most 38-year-old catchers. At 35, Tim Worrell posted the lowest ERA (2.25) of his career; at 36, he won't come anywhere near that mark. And while we'll concede that Kirk Rueter can succeed despite his relative inability to rack up strikeouts, we do not think he'll post another sub-4.00 ERA.

Projected lineup
2B Ray Durham
RF Marquis Grissom
CF Jose Cruz Jr.
LF Barry Bonds
3B Edgardo Alfonzo
SS Rich Aurilia
1B J.T. Snow
C Benito Santiago

Rotation
Jason Schmidt
Kirk Rueter
Livan Hernandez
Damian Moss
Ryan Jensen/Kurt Ainsworth/Jesse Foppert

Closer
Robb Nen

A closer look
In 2002, San Francisco pitchers combined for a 3.54 ERA, second only to the Braves.

Were they really that good? No, they weren't. The Giants' overall ERA benefited from Pacific Bell Park, the pitcher-friendliest park in the National League. On the other hand, the Giants' 4.09 road ERA, while still good, ranked just fifth in the league. And they were just as close to seventh place (Astros, 4.17) as they were to fourth (Pirates, 4.01).

That was plenty good, of course, because the Giants also had the best offense in the National League. But with Jeff Kent and Reggie Sanders no longer in the lineup, will they again have the best offense in the league? And even if they do, will the pitching staff again be good enough?

Let's start with the bullpen. Closer Robb Nen is one of the best in the business ... but after Nen, things get a bit dicey. In 2002, Tim Worrell (8-2, 2.25), Jay Witasick (1-0, 2.37), and Chad Zerbe (2-0, 3.04) combined for a 2.52 ERA in 197 innings. But Witasick signed a free-agent deal with the Padres, and it's highly likely that both Worrell and Zerbe will post significantly higher ERA's.

So will the Giants' bullpen be one of the best in the league in 2003?

No, probably not.

Will the starters make up the difference?

The Giants' best starter is Jason Schmidt. He spent most of 2000 on the disabled list, but since coming to San Francisco in late July of 2001, Schmidt is 20-9 with a 3.43 ERA. He's the real deal.

The Giants' second-best starter is Kirk Rueter. He boasts an outstanding .616 career winning percentage, and last season he went 14-8 with a 3.23 ERA that paced the club's starters. It's the best season Rueter's ever had, and probably always will be.

The Giants' third-best starter is -- or was, in 2002 -- Livan Hernandez. Over the last two seasons, he's 25-31 with a 4.82 ERA, and that's just about how good he is.

After the top three, we enter somewhat uncharted territory. With Russ Ortiz now attempting to play the role of Kevin Millwood in Atlanta, the Giants have four pitchers vying for the fourth and fifth slots in the rotation.

Two of them -- Damian Moss (who came from the Braves in the Ortiz deal) and Ryan Jensen -- are known quantities with limited upsides. The other two -- Kurt Ainsworth and Jesse Foppert -- are youngsters with limited experience but tremendous potential; particularly Foppert, who's widely considered the top pitching prospect in the game.

The low-risk strategy would put Moss and Jensen in the rotation, with Ainsworth apprenticing as a reliever and Foppert spending a few more months in Triple-A. But that's also the low-reward strategy. Handing rotation slots to both the rookies could be disastrous (at least in the short term) ... but it might also be the only way for the Giants to make up for the losses of Jeff Kent and Russ Ortiz.

Senior writer Rob Neyer, whose Big Book of Baseball Lineups will be published in April by Fireside, will be appearing here regularly and irregularly during the offseason. His e-mail address is rob.neyer@dig.com.