The Numbers
	2002 record: 98-64, .605 (5th overall) Runs scored: 819, 1st in NL Runs allowed: 674, 5th in NL Run differential: +145 (6th overall) Starters' ERA: 3.68, 2nd in NL Bullpen ERA: 4.58, 14th in NL Payroll (Opening Day): $102.8 million (4th overall) Attendance: 3.19 million (4th overall) 3-year record: 274-212, .564 (7th overall)

2002 in review
What went right?
Randy Johnson and Curt Schilling were predictably dominant, throwing nearly 520 sterling innings and winning a combined 47 games. Schilling was considered the early front runner for the Cy Young, until he finished the season with a 5.87 ERA in September, and teammate Johnson tallied a 5-0 record during the month, with a gaudy 0.66 ERA. Byung-Hyun Kim obliterated any speculation that he may have been shell-shocked by the key home runs he gave up to the Yankees in the 2001 World Series, sidearming his way to 36 saves, 92 Ks in 84 innings, and a 2.04 ERA. Junior Spivey, given an opportunity to play full time, exploded on the league and played like a legitimate MVP candidate, posting a .301/.389/.476 campaign, filling a lineup spot and defensive position far better than anyone could have hoped. Steve Finley, coming off an age 35 season where his productivity fell off dramatically, rebounded with 25 HR, a career-high .370 on-base percentage, and solid defense in center field.

What went wrong?
On September 23rd, Luis Gonzalez suffered a shoulder separation that ended his season. A nagging oblique injury sidelined Erubiel Durazo intermittently down the stretch, forcing the Diamondbacks to enter the postseason without their two best hitters. Rick Helling was unspectacular at best, and didn't solve the problem of stability in the rotation behind Schilling and Johnson. Arizona's implicit plan to ride Schilling and Johnson through the playoffs didn't work as the D-Backs just ran out of gas. With a patchwork offense because of the absence of a healthy Gonzalez and Durazo, St. Louis easily defeated the D-Backs, ending their hopes of defending their title.

In retrospect, the critical decisions were:
1. Made years ago. The contracts given to Jay Bell and Matt Williams in the winter of 1997 put the Diamondbacks in a precarious budgetary situation. For the duo's combined 264 at-bats in 2002, Diamondbacks owner Jerry Colangelo wrote $17.5 million in checks. That money could have been better spent on rotation help, or better yet, on some combination of short term needs and player development.

	Junior Spivey Second baseman Arizona Diamondbacks Profile
	2002 SEASON STATISTICS GM AB R HR RBI AVG 143 538 103 16 78 .301

2. Giving Spivey an opportunity to play every day in place of an injured Bell. Spivey had hit .258/.354/.423 in 2001, and had struggled in Triple-A Tucson that same year, but given an opportunity to play full time, Spivey was great, hitting like he did through the low minors -- average, power, and plate discipline. He was presented with a career-making opportunity, and he nailed it.

3. Dealing with the Phillies. It's not new, but it deserves a second look. On July 26th, 2000, Arizona sent Travis Lee, Omar Daal, Vicente Padilla, and Nelson Figueroa to the Phillies for Schilling.

Looking ahead to 2003
Three key questions
1. Age, Age, and more Age. The Diamondbacks are depending on continued health and excellence from a very large number of old ballplayers. Johnson's going to be 39. Schilling turned 36 during the winter. Gonzalez will play this season at 35, coming off reconstructive shoulder surgery. Finley was just signed to a two-year deal, and he'll be 38 in 2003. The bench is old, too, with Mark Grace (39) and Williams (37) earning a combined eight figures to watch a lot of ballgames. There are a lot more players on the Diamondbacks squad who can realistically be expected to get worse than better. They'll need some luck to keep everyone healthy and playing well.

2. Backing up the big guns. Assuming Schilling's late season problems were simply a result of fatigue, no team in baseball has a better 1-2 punch in the rotation than Johnson and Schilling. But even under the best of circumstances, that's about 70-72 starts, leaving the balance for Miguel Batista, Elmer Dessens and John Patterson. Patterson's a strong candidate to bust out on the league, but he's still a young pitcher. One of two things needs to happen: Either two of these three step up a little bit and pitch well enough to stabilize the rotation and take a load off the pen, or one of them, probably Patterson, needs to blossom into a full blown star.

3. Keeping up with the Sabeans. The Giants spent the offseason getting considerably better on the lineup side, adding two guys that get on base and can hit for power in Ray Durham and Edgardo Alfonzo. The D-Backs major move was getting rid of their most promising hitter, Durazo, and adding Dessens. In addition, Greg Colbrunn and his nice 1.000 OPS off the bench are gone. Did the Diamondbacks do enough to keep pace with the rest of the division, either in the short term or long term?

Can expect to play better
Patterson. Maybe he can't expect to play a lot better, but he can expect to play more. He's recovered from reconstructive elbow surgery, his velocity was back, his strikeout rate was up, and he was impressive in the majors, posting a 3.22 ERA and 31 strikeouts in 30.2 innings. If he can keep the ball in the park, and perhaps get a tip or two from the veterans on the staff, he could well explode on the league.

Stats Corner
Curt Schilling (above) won a career-best 23 games in 2002. Junior Spivey led the club in batting average (.301), runs (103), hits (162) and doubles (34). Rick Helling (10-12) finished the season with the third-most wins on the club, but also led the team in losses. Steve Finley has played in 150 or more games four of the last five years.

Can expect to play worse
Almost all the good players. The Diamondbacks are a good fit for the joke about the "great, young team" -- the great players aren't young, and the young players aren't great. Gonzalez, Finley, Grace, Johnson, and Schilling can all reasonably expect some decline, as can Spivey, just because of the incredibly high level at which he performed during the 2002 season.

Projected lineup
SS Tony Womack
3B Craig Counsell
2B Junior Spivey
LF Luis Gonzalez
1B Lyle Overbay
CF Steve Finley
RF Danny Bautista/David Dellucci
C Chad Moeller

Rotation
Randy Johnson
Curt Schilling
Elmer Dessens
Miguel Batista
John Patterson

Closer
Byung-Hyun Kim

A closer look
It was a four-way deal, but from the Diamondbacks' perspective, it was effectively Erubiel Durazo for Elmer Dessens. GM Joe Garagiola was still looking for a way to bring some help to the rotation behind the big two, and so he went out and got Dessens.

Was it a good move?

Durazo had picked up some off-field baggage for allegedly refusing to play right field down the stretch and into the playoffs. Lyle Overbay looks ready to play in the big leagues, and by moving Durazo, Arizona frees up playing time for Overbay, acquires a rotation guy to slot in behind Schilling and Johnson, and disposes of some potential clubhouse chemistry issues by removing Durazo from the scene.

The real question is: Did Garagiola get enough?

Everybody within shouting distance of the game knew that Oakland A's GM Billy Beane was hot for Durazo. Beane himself called Durazo "his Great White Whale," and made no secret of his desire to bring the left-handed hitting slugger to Oakland. But instead of dealing directly with Oakland, an organization that's stocked with starting pitching, Cincinnati and Toronto were brought in on the deal, allowing Garagiola to acquire Dessens.

Dessens had just completed a 2002 campaign in which he made 30 starts, and posted a 3.03 ERA, which would be welcome in any rotation in baseball. The problem for the D-Backs is that he's unlikely to repeat that performance. Here are Dessens' career performances, to date:

Year	IP	H	BB	K	ERA
1996	25	40	4	13	8.28
1997	3.1	2	0	2	0.00
1998	74.2	90	25	43	5.67
2000	147.1	170	43	85	4.28
2001	205	221	56	128	4.48
2002	178	173	49	93	3.03

In two previous seasons in which he was in a rotation, Dessens has put up ERAs of 4.28 and 4.48. 2002 was the first season in which Dessens has given up fewer hits than innings pitched. His strikeout rate, which is one of the best indicators of future ERA, was 4.70 per nine innings, considerably below the league average. Given Dessens' past performance record, and the fact that he turns 31 years old next week, it's unlikely that his 2002 performance represents a new level of ability. It's much more likely that's it's simply a fluke, and Dessens will be part of the continuing problem of backing up Schilling and Johnson in the Diamondbacks rotation.

Garagiola probably could have extracted more from Beane through a direct deal, but probably only by receiving prospects for the future. Given the elder-statesman status of the Diamondbacks, it probably makes sense to go find a starting pitcher who can contribute now, rather than a couple of high-upside arms. Still, it's difficult to believe that Arizona couldn't find a better payoff for Erubiel Durazo than Elmer Dessens.

You can check out more work from the team of writers of the Baseball Prospectus (tm) at their web site at baseballprospectus.com. Gary Huckabay can be reached at ghuckabay@baseballprospectus.com.