The Numbers
	2002 record: 67-95, .414 (tied for 24th overall) Runs scored: 706, 11th in NL Runs allowed: 759, 11th in NL Run differential: -53 (19th overall) Starters' ERA: 4.02, 5th in NL Bullpen ERA: 4.86, 15th in NL Payroll (Opening Day): $75.7 million (12th overall) Attendance: 2.69 million (9th overall) 3-year record: 220-266, .453 (22nd overall)

2002 in review
What went right?
Kerry Wood held together for a full season and was joined by Matt Clement and unflappable rookie Mark Prior to form a front-of-the-rotation trio that held opponents to a .220 batting average with 9.7 strikeouts per nine innings. Sammy Sosa once again piled up run-production numbers in bunches, joining Willie Mays and Mel Ott as the only National Leaguers with eight consecutive 100-RBI seasons.

What went wrong?
Fielding problems in the infield, a total collapse of the bullpen and underproduction by the overhyped trio of Sosa, Fred McGriff and Moises Alou contributed to an 18-36 record in one-run games and 95 losses overall, making it the fourth year in the last six with at least 94 losses. Sosa took a step backward after a terrific 2001 season, showing signs of age for the first time.

Corey Patterson, Mark Bellhorn, Alex Gonzalez and Sosa contributed to the Cubs leading the majors in strikeouts. Jon Lieber, a 20-game winner in 2001, was allowed to stay in a game after a 93-minute rain delay on April 14 and 18 starts later needed reconstructive elbow surgery. Manager Don Baylor couldn't improve a horrible clubhouse atmosphere and lost his job with one and a half seasons left on his contract.

In retrospect, the critical decisions were:
1. Signing Alou to a three-year contract. Sosa pushed for the signing and, as usual, got what he wanted. Like Todd Hundley in 2001, Alou was a major free-agent bust.

	Moises Alou Left fielder Chicago Cubs Profile
	2002 SEASON STATISTICS GM AB R HR RBI AVG 132 484 50 15 61 .275

2. Counting on journeymen Delino DeShields and Chris Stynes. They opened the season at second and third base, respectively, while the Cubs waited for prospect Bobby Hill and an injured Bill Mueller to take over, and the ball found them at all the wrong times during an 8-17 start.

3. Turning the team over to Triple-A manager Bruce Kimm after firing Baylor on July 5. A bad situation in the Sosa-run clubhouse only got worse. A potential disaster was courted when Kimm -- trying to earn a full-time contract -- allowed Prior to work a 135-pitch complete game in August.

Looking ahead to 2003
Three key questions
1. Can Dusty Baker instill the same high expectations for a young Cubs team built around Sosa as existed with an old San Francisco team built around Barry Bonds? He's built his reputation on the backs of veterans, but now relies on the development of at least five future keys -- first baseman Hee Seop Choi, second baseman Hill, flailing away center fielder Patterson (after the All-Star break: .606 OPS, 79 strikeouts, two walks in 276 at-bats) and starting pitchers Carlos Zambrano and Prior.

2. Should the Cubs have signed Jim Thome and traded Choi? In discussing the decision not to pursue Thome, an Illinois native who has had his eye on Wrigley Field forever, GM Jim Hendry said it was time to play Choi. He's got big-time power but batted .180 while sharing first with McGriff in September.

3. Is Sosa the right centerpiece to rebuild around? Baker has been extremely deferential toward Sosa since being hired, but will form his own impressions as the season goes along. He might be more likely to notice Sosa's shortcomings after being spoiled by Bonds. Sosa has the right to leave after this season and could be allowed to walk -- or possibly even traded -- if Baker isn't sold on him. Vlad Guerrero and Miguel Tejada are among the potential free agents who could replace Sosa following 2003.

Can expect to play better
Health is always going to be an issue with Alou but, he hit 46 points higher (and added 95 points onto his OPS) in the second half. He will be better prepared for the harsh early-season conditions at Wrigley Field. Patterson is too intelligent not to learn from the lack of plate discipline that raised questions about his long-term survival. The Cubs will have Tom Goodwin and Charles Gipson in camp and prospect Nic Jackson at Triple-A.

Stats Corner
Sammy Sosa (above) scored 122 runs in 2002, the fifth straight season he's scored 100 or more. Matt Clement was 6-6 with a 4.57 ERA in 17 starts at home, and 6-5 with a 2.55 ERA in 15 starts on the road. Fred McGriff hit 30 home runs, putting him 22 shy of the 500-homer plateau. Antonio Alfonseca (2-5, 4.00) blew a career high nine saves.

Can expect to play worse
Clement's contract and lack of command prompted Florida to include him in the Antonio Alfonseca deal at the end of spring training. He responded by cutting his walk rate to 3.7 per nine innings from a career 4.8 per nine innings. His stuff was filthy, causing his opponents' batting average to drop from .267 to .215, which was even lower than Wood (.221) and Prior (.226). The effort involved in throwing his hard slider makes him a health risk. Bellhorn shocked opponents with 27 homers, but will get treated with more respect.

Projected lineup
2B Bobby Hill
3B Mark Bellhorn
RF Sammy Sosa
LF Moises Alou
1B Hee Seop Choi/Eric Karros
SS Alex Gonzalez
CF Corey Patterson
C Damian Miller/Paul Bako

Rotation
Kerry Wood
Mark Prior
Matt Clement
Shawn Estes
Carlos Zambrano

Closer
Antonio Alfonseca/Mike Remlinger

A closer look
In 2002, the Cubs' bullpen was the worst in the NL and gave Texas a battle for the distinction as the worst in the majors. While Antonio Alfonseca was retained as the most likely closer the group around him has been overhauled, with free agents Mike Remlinger, Dave Veres and Mark Guthrie expected to provide major improvement.

That trio of veterans was 17-14 with a combined 2.72 ERA and five saves last season. It held opponents to a .211 batting average. Given their age, it's unlikely that Remlinger, Veres and Guthrie will duplicate the strong years they had in '02, but they will nevertheless be an upgrade.

Factor in holdovers Joe Borowski (4-4, 2.73 in 73 games) and Juan Cruz (.217 OBA and 50 strikeouts in 51 2/3 relief innings) along with possible contributions from hardthrowing prospect Francis Beltran and the surgically repaired Rod Beck and new manager Dusty Baker could have an abundance of bullpen options to go along with the NL Central's best rotation.

But we haven't even mentioned the staff's biggest X-factor. That's Kyle Farnsworth.

Immature, bulked up and a clubhouse enigma, he's John Rocker without the hateful streak.

Farnsworth (.213 OBA, 107 strikeouts in 82 innings) was better than set-up man extraordinaire Octavio Dotel in 2001, but unraveled completely in 2002 after first flopping in a spring trial as the closer and then landing on the disabled list. He was practically unusable in August and September.

Farnsworth suffered a stress fracture in his right foot warming up in the bullpen in April. He quickly regained his upper-90s fastball after returning in June, but couldn't get left-handed hitters out. They basically took batting practice off him, hitting .392 with 15 extra-base hits in 79 at-bats. His hard splitter, a major weapon in '01, was no factor. Pitching coach Larry Rothschild could never get him straightened out.

Rebuilding Farnsworth's confidence is a major project for Baker, Rothschild and new bench coach, Dick Pole. Farnsworth must do his part by making more of a commitment to his career. According to many who know him, a nightly curfew might help.

The Cubs were close to giving up on Farnsworth after 2002, but concluded the potential upside is worth the effort. He could pay off big or crash, burn and disappear.

If it's the former, the bullpen could turn from major weakness into strength. A strong bullpen could get the Cubs over .500, but it's hard to see the lineup producing enough runs for Baker to engineer a serious run at the playoffs in his maiden voyage aboard the good ship Wait 'Till Next Year.

Phil Rogers is the national baseball writer for the Chicago Tribune, which has a web site at www.chicagosports.com.