The Numbers

2001 record: 85-77, .525 (13th overall) 2001 expected record*: 83-79 Runs scored: 771, 8th in AL Runs allowed: 766, 7th in AL Run differential: +5 (16th overall) Starters' ERA: 4.46, 6th in AL Bullpen ERA: 4.64, 12th in AL Payroll (Opening Day): $24.8 million (30th overall) Local broadcast revenue: $7.3 million (27th overall) Attendance: 1.78 million (24th overall) 3-year record: 217-267, .448 (23rd overall) 5-year record: 355-453, .439 (27th overall) * based on runs scored and runs allowed

2001 in review
What went right?
The Twins got off to a hot start, leading the AL Central by five games at the All-Star break. Joe Mays solidified the rotation behind Brad Radke and Eric Milton. First baseman Doug Mientkiewicz overcame the confidence problems that ruined his '99 season. He won a Gold Glove, as did center fielder Torii Hunter. As a whole, the team was very strong defensively. Third baseman Corey Koskie became the first Twin to hit 25 homers and have 100 RBI since Gary Gaetti in 1987.

What went wrong?
The club went 30-45 in the second half, falling to second place. The bullpen was a disaster in August, following the catastrophic implosion of closer LaTroy Hawkins. An ill-advised trade of Matt Lawton to the Mets for veteran starter Rick Reed weakened the offense without helping the pitching staff. DH David Ortiz played poorly after fracturing his wrist in May. The Twins were unable to find an adequate replacement for injured shortstop Cristian Guzman during the August swoon. The threat of contraction during the offseason cast a pall over the organization.

In retrospect, the critical decisions were:
1. Letting the kids play. The Twins have one of the youngest and cheapest rosters in the game, and the patience started to pay off last year.

2. Trading Lawton for Reed. The Twins' strength in the first half was their rotation; their potential weakness the hitting attack. Trading Lawton cost the Twins their best on-base threat, while Reed's 5.19 ERA for Minnesota was a massive disappointment. Inconsistent hitting and lack of on-base threats, combined with bullpen weakness, doomed the stretch drive.

3. Sticking with Hawkins as the closer. He converted 19 of his first 22 saves chances, but his K/BB ratio during that stretch was weak, a sign that he would struggle sooner or later. His collapse, and the struggles of the rest of the bullpen, were a major factor in the second-half drop. He lost his job to Eddie Guardado by the end of the year, but the damage had been done.

Looking ahead to 2002
Three key questions
1. Contraction. The Twins will play in 2002, but what about 2003? All rides on the willingness of the state legislature and Governor Jesse Ventura to come up with some sort of stadium financing plan. Few question the need to replace the Metrodome albatross, but finding funds to do so is made difficult by the recession and the gaping chasm that is the Minnesota state budget. No one wants to lose the Twins ... but making the case for public financing is difficult when funding for schools, roads and medical care is under threat. An off-budget solution can be found, but there are a lot of competing plans to choose from. The ownership bid of Alabama businessman Donald Watkins, who has expressed a willingness to fund his own stadium, makes it even more complicated.

2. How will the team react to the contraction threat? Will they play-to-survive ala the Cleveland Indians in the movie "Major League"? Or will they press too hard and struggle? New manager Ron Gardenhire will have to find a way to keep the clubhouse both focused and loose. It will be interesting to contrast his leadership style, whatever that may be, with that of retired manager Tom Kelly.

3. Positional questions. Who plays right field? Rookie Mike Cuddyer and holdovers Brian Buchanan and Bobby Kielty are the main candidates. What about the bullpen? Guardado should do decently as the closer, but the middle-relief corps must improve. As for the rotation, Reed has demanded a trade, though it is rumored that he may rescind the demand. If he doesn't, the Twins will need two young starters to step up rather than just one.

Stats Corner
Doug Mientkiewicz (above) led the Twins with a .306 batting average, which was also 12th-best in the AL. Torii Hunter won his first career Gold Glove and also topped the Twins with 27 home runs. The Twins were one of only four teams in the AL -- the Yankees, A's and Mariners were the others -- to have three pitchers compile 200 or more innings: Joe Mays (233.2), Brad Radke (226) and Eric Milton (220.2). Eddie Guardado was 12-of-14 in save opportunities, including eight straight to finish the season.

Can expect to play better
Milton is about a millimeter away from breaking through with a 20-win season. Jacque Jones showed improved strike zone judgment in the second half last year, and hit .307 after the break. Luis Rivas is just 22 and hit .285 in the second half. Ortiz still has 30-homer potential if he can stay healthy.

Can expect to play worse
Mays had a great year, but his strikeout rate was low enough that we shouldn't regard him as a sure thing. Mientkiewicz could hit .280 as easily as he could hit .320. All of the Twins core players are young or in their prime. Even if they don't improve, it seems unlikely that any will fall on their face.

Projected lineup
2B Luis Rivas
SS Cristian Guzman
1B Doug Mientkiewicz
3B Corey Koskie
DH David Ortiz
CF Torii Hunter
LF Jacque Jones
RF Mike Cuddyer / Brian Buchanan / Bobby Kielty
C A.J. Pierzynski / Tom Prince

Rotation
Brad Radke
Eric Milton
Joe Mays
Rick Reed?
Kyle Lohse / Adam Johnson / Brad Thomas / Matt Kinney

Closer
Eddie Guardado / Mike Jackson

A closer look
The biggest question regarding the Twins is one we cannot answer without resorting to a time machine. Will they exist in 2003?

It is apparent that, left to their own devices, Bud Selig and Carl Pohlad would kill the franchise. That will be made more difficult (though not impossible) if they make the playoffs this year. If some sort of stadium plan passes, or if Donald Watkins buys the franchise and builds his own venue, it won't happen at all. But, given the vagaries of state politics in an election year and a shaky economy, a new stadium and the survival of Major League baseball in Minnesota is far from certain.

If the Twins do survive, the future is bright indeed. The Twins may not win the division this year, but they are poised for long-term success, thanks to a strong farm system that is about to produce the very thing that has been Minnesota's main weakness in recent campaigns: power.

Let's step into our quantum flux time machine, and take a look at what the Minnesota Twins lineup may look like, circa 2005.

Catcher: Joe Mauer; Bats: L
The first pick in the 2001 draft, Mauer is an exceptional across-the-board prospect, with strong defensive skills as well as a great bat. The fact that he's from Minnesota is just icing on the cake. Since he just debuted last year, we don't really know how good he will be, of course ... but scouts are unanimous in their praise. Sabermatricians like the fact that he hit .400 in rookie ball while showing good strike zone judgment. He'll be 23 in 2005, perhaps not a star yet, but a good player at the least.

First Base: Doug Mientkiewicz; Bats: L
Will be 31 in 2005, starting the downhill part of his career but likely to still be productive. He put up Mark Grace numbers last year while winning a Gold Glove.

Second Base: Luis Rivas; Bats: R
Will be 25 in 2005, just entering his prime years. Rivas wasn't outstanding last year, but keep in mind that he was just 21.

Here are the 10 most similar players in baseball history to Luis Rivas through age 21, as shown by the Similarity Score method:

1. Paul Molitor (980)
2. Johnny Evers (971) * Hall of Fame
3. Jerry Browne (967)
4. Lou Whitaker (966)
5. Eddie Collins (965) * Hall of Fame
6. Charlie Dexter (964)
7. Larry Doyle (964)
8. Joe Morgan (963) * Hall of Fame
9. Hal Lanier (960)
10. Delino DeShields (958)

That is quite a list. Three Hall of Famers, one player who will be in the Hall (Molitor), two guys who were really good (Whitaker and Doyle), and two guys who were decent (Browne, DeShields). Dexter was OK but nothing great. Only Lanier, who didn't hit, was a truly weak player, and his strike zone judgment was much worse than Rivas'.

This doesn't mean, of course, that Rivas has a 40 percent chance to become a Hall of Famer. It does mean, however, that given a normal development curve, he should have a fine career.

Third Base: Corey Koskie; Bats: L
Will turn 32 in 2005. Like Mientkiewicz, he'll be on the downhill side of his career, but still likely to be productive.

Shortstop: Cristian Guzman; Bats: S
Will be 27 in 2005, at the prime of his career. Given the excellent progress he's made in refining his offensive skills, many scouts expect he'll be a regular All-Star performer by this time. Even if he is merely "as good as he is now," that's still pretty decent. He does need to improve his strike zone judgment in order to reach his full potential.

Left Field: Mike Restovich; Bats: R
Another Minnesota boy, a hard-hitting slugger. His 2001 MLE, based on his numbers in Double-A, shows him hitting .256 with 19 homers and 11 steals. Will be 26 in 2005; given normal growth, he should be hitting in the .270s with 20+ homer power, which is in line with scouts' expectations. His defense in left is solid.

Center Field: Torii Hunter; Bats: R
Assuming that the Twins can retain his services (they are having trouble working on a contract), Hunter should continue to offer Gold Glove defense and occasional power. He'll be 29 in 2005, still in his prime.

Right Field: Mike Cuddyer; Bats: R
Will be 26 in 2006, like Restovich. His 2001 MLE shows him as a .284 hitter with 25 homers, 35 doubles, and 56 walks. Given normal development, he should be putting up similar or better numbers in the majors by this time. He has a right-field arm and has decent range.

DH: Justin Morneau; Bats: L
A lefty slugger with excellent bat speed, Morneau will be just 24 in 2005, but most scouts expect he'll be bashing major-league pitching by this time. Projects 25-30 homer power and should be able to hit for a good average.

Now, of course we can't predict things like injuries. Trades will be made; some players may be lost to free agency; other players will be brought up through the farm system or perhaps signed as free agents should a new stadium provide the team with extra revenues.

But the bottom line is this: even with just what they have now, the Twins will have an average or better player at every position through the next few years. Every player listed above is a good, or even excellent, defensive player. All of them should provide good, or better, hitting through the next few years. There is power, there is speed, there is balance between left- and right-handed hitters. There are guys who draw walks. Rivas and Guzman could be the best middle infield combination in baseball three years from now. Mauer, Cuddyer, Restovich, and Morneau all project as 20+ homer players, and all have shown some ability to hit for average and get on base.

On the other hand, predicting the pitching is a fool's errand, given the nature of the craft and things like injuries. The Twins have a good pitching staff right now, and their minor-league system offers numerous live arms. It may or may not stay that way, of course.

The point of this exercise is this: the Twins have a great collection of young talent. They have power, speed, defense. The pitching is pretty good right now. They could very well be one of the best teams in baseball over the next several years. This is not an organization that deserves to be euthanized.

Donald Watkins, Carl Pohlad, Jesse Ventura, Citizens of Minnesota: find a way to save this team.

John Sickels is the author of the 2002 STATS Minor League Scouting Notebook. He is currently writing a biography of Bob Feller. He lives in Lawrence, Kansas, with his wife, son, and two cats. You can send John questions or comments at JASickels@aol.com, or you can visit his homepage at hometown.aol.com/jasickels/page1.html.