So what happens now? Once Roger Clemens finishes his 300th-win party, is the 300-game winner really going to be as extinct as the Stegosaurus?
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| Maddux |
"I'm not so sure of that," said Lyle Spatz, chairman of SABR's Records Committee. "I think these things are cyclical. Greg Maddux is almost certainly going to win 300. And I'm not even convinced Maddux will be the last of the 300-game winners. I think Tom Glavine has a real good shot. Randy Johnson has a shot if he doesn't get hurt. And I think Mike Mussina has a shot."
But how good a shot? We'll concede Maddux the 24 wins he needs. But we would give only five other active pitchers a realistic, though outside, chance of winning 300 -- if everything goes right. Here's a look at those five:
|
| WHO |
NUMBERS |
WHAT IT WOULD TAKE |
|
|
Age: 37.
Wins: 247.
|
Glavine is only five wins behind Clemens at the same age. And if you project him with 15 wins a year through age 40, that gets him to 302 wins. Those 15 a year will come harder in Flushing than they did in Atlanta. But Glavine still has an easy delivery. He's never been on the DL. And he isn't likely to quit if he's close. "He will stick it out," said Braves broadcaster, and 300-game winner, Don Sutton. "Tom is a guy who is mindful of his niche in baseball history. His goals are strong, and he wants to make the Hall of Fame." |
|
|
| WHO |
NUMBERS |
WHAT IT WOULD TAKE |
|
|
Age: 39.
Wins: 225.
|
It won't be easy. The Unit is almost 60 wins behind where Clemens was at the same age. And now he's in the midst of losing half a season to knee surgery. But we're talking about a guy who has averaged 20 wins a season the last five years (from age 34 through 38). So if he has a couple of more seasons like that in him, who knows? "I wouldn't put it past him," Phillies pitching coach Joe Kerrigan said. "I think he can pitch till he's 45. Which gives him a legitimate shot." |
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|
| WHO |
NUMBERS |
WHAT IT WOULD TAKE |
|
|
Age: 34.
Wins: 189.
|
Mussina is right on Clemens' pace. He has cranked out 14 to 19 wins a year in nine of the last 11 seasons. And now he is quietly within range of 300, while pitching as well as ever, for the perfect win machine (the Yankees). "No question, he has a shot," A's pitching coach Rick Peterson said. "He's so different from Roger, too. Roger is like Tiger (Woods). He's going to go out and hit it 320. Mussina is more Maddux-like. He's going to stay in the fairway. He'll be in the right place on the green. He's course management at the highest level. If anybody could do it and stay healthy, it's Mussina." |
|
|
| WHO |
NUMBERS |
WHAT IT WOULD TAKE |
|
|
Age: 31.
Wins: 156.
|
Pedro, too, is just off Clemens' pace. And he remains as dominating as ever. But he needs to average 15 wins for another 10 years. And who knows whether he'll be healthy or driven enough to pitch that long. "It's all up to Pedro's desire to stay in the game," said Kerrigan, his old pitching coach. "A guy like him, with his body, he can probably pitch till he's 38-40, with three great pitches. And knowing him, he'll probably invent a pitch in five years that he doesn't throw now." |
|
|
| WHO |
NUMBERS |
WHAT IT WOULD TAKE |
|
|
Age: 30.
Wins: 132.
|
It's hard to imagine Pettitte putting in another 11 or 12 seasons -- or keeping his elbow healthy enough to pitch that long. But remember, we're talking about the only pitcher in the expansion era to win 12 games or more in the first eight seasons of his career. Plus, he's a Yankee. Plus, he owns the fourth-best career winning percentage of any active pitcher with at least 150 decisions. Plus, he has averaged 16 wins a season over his career. If he keeps averaging 16 a year through age 40, he'd be at 288 wins. But don't bet on it. "From what I hear," one AL scout said, "he's already thinking about retiring." |
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The young studs
If Mark Mulder wins 15 games a year through age 40, he'd be at 289 wins. If Barry Zito wins 15 a year through age 40, he'd be at 287 wins. Do the same math with Tim Hudson, and you get 274 wins. They're the names people always mention when the talk turns to the best young starters around. But none of them is even up to 70 career wins. So not even Miss Cleo can look that far into the future.
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| Zito |
"Our three kids have everything it takes," Peterson said. "But it's so premature. I mean, is Zito going to pitch 23 years like Carlton did? That's hard to imagine. It's hard to imagine anybody doing it."
Oh, there are other great young pitchers in our midst, of course. Kerry Wood. Roy Oswalt. Mark Prior. Brett Myers. Mark Buehrle. Joel Pineiro. They're all 25 or younger, so who knows where their trails are leading in the next 15 years.
But it would be wise to heed the lesson of Dwight Gooden. He'd won 120 games by age 25 -- 42 more than Clemens, 63 more than Carlton, 45 more than Tom Seaver. He'd won more games, in fact, than Zito and Mulder combined.
So who had a brighter future than Dwight Gooden? But there were so many detours on his highway, Gooden never even reached 200 wins, let alone 300.
Which is why, if any of today's young studs do get to 300 some day, we shouldn't be shocked. Just don't bet your autographed copy of "The Life And Times of Mark Fidrych" on it.
Looking ahead
To determine which active pitchers have the best shot at 300 wins, we took the liberty of giving them 15 wins a year through age 40 to see where that would carry them. We used July 1 as the age cutoff. Here's how they ranked (current age in parenthesis):
|
PROJECTED WINS TOTALS
|
200 or more
wins right now
|
150 or more
wins right now
|
100 or more
wins right now
|
|
Greg Maddux (37) 333
|
Kevin Brown (38) 228
|
Andy Pettitte (31) 278
|
|
Tom Glavine (37) 302
|
Mike Mussina (34) 287
|
Mike Hampton (30) 271
|
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Randy Johnson (39) 264
|
Curt Schilling (36) 230
|
Brad Radke (30) 267
|
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Pedro Martinez (30) 302
|
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|
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Kevin Appier (35) 251
|
|
|
|
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75 or more
wins right now
|
60 or more
wins right now
|
50 or more
wins right now
|
|
Bartolo Colon (30) 250
|
Livan Hernandez (28) 264
|
Eric Milton (27) 266
|
|
Kevin Millwood (28) 270
|
Tim Hudson (27) 274
|
Javier Vazquez (26) 276
|
|
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Matt Morris (28) 256
|
Mark Mulder (25) 289
|
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Freddy Garcia (26) 285
|
Barry Zito (25) 287
|
|
|
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Kerry Wood (26) 270
|
Jayson Stark is a senior writer for ESPN.com.
