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Pete Rose.
OK, now that we've got your attention, you may have noticed something:
It's more than five weeks since the news broke that Bud Selig was considering reinstating the Hit King. And since then, on the surface, absolutely nothing has happened.
|  | | Pete Rose is baseball's all-time Hit King. |
Unless, that is, you count that four-alarm firestorm that has been raging outside the commish's window from the moment this story went from top secret to the top of SportsCenter.
That firestorm follows Rose wherever he goes, of course. So it should be no surprise that once this news wriggled out, it turned what once was a smooth, calm process into a loud, public roller-coaster ride.
And for Bud Selig, that's a bigggg problem.
If he has living Hall of Famers, other members of the baseball community and columnists across America demanding that he not reinstate Rose, it complicates a decision that was supposed to be a slam-dunk jolt of good old positive p.r. for the commish and his sport. For a change.
"Let's just say this," said one source close to the situation. "The resistance to letting Pete back in is greater than what Bud had imagined."
We should acknowledge that other sources involved in this process deny that Selig has been surprised by any of this, or that the Rose furor of the last month has changed anything. But here, sources say, is the current state of the Rose garden:
A meeting between Selig and a contingent of Hall of Fame players is still unscheduled, but is expected to go down sometime next month. The optimistic target date is before spring training, but there's no certainty of that, either.
Though a source described that meeting as "a courtesy" to the Hall of Famers, it's expected that a surprising number will express serious reservations about Rose's reinstatement.
Multiple sources said that before this story took on a life of its own, they expected an agreement on Rose's reinstatement would have been concluded by mid-to-late January. Now it could drag on for weeks or months -- or maybe not happen at all. But a source close to Selig insists there is "no timetable" for anything and never has been.
Because the opposition to Rose's reinstatement has been so vocal in the last month, one source says there is now "a much greater awareness of the conditions and circumstances under which (Rose) will be taken back."
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Let's just say this. The resistance to letting Pete (Rose) back in (baseball) is greater than what Bud (Selig) had imagined. ” |
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— A source close to the situation |
Those conditions, according to sources, now are expected to require Rose A) to admit in unspecified detail than he bet on baseball, B) to apologize for doing so and for denying it for the last 13 years and C) to "behave the right way" during a probationary period in which he will be obligated to demonstrate true contrition.
One source said that while a formal agreement still would have to be worked out that would permit Rose's reinstatement, there will be "no negotiation" whatsoever about what will be required of Rose if he wants to be reinstated.
Finally, although Rose clearly is lobbying for his reinstatement to come with no restrictions once the probationary period is over, there appears to be increasing focus on drawing a distinction between allowing him to appear on the Hall of Fame ballot and permitting him to work in baseball.
So where is all this leading? We would still bet on Selig granting Rose some sort of parole somewhere down the road. But that road is suddenly a lot bumpier than it was a month and a half ago. And because of that, one source said the chances of Rose making a triumphant return to Cooperstown, Cincinnati and a ballpark near you are now "too close to call."
Miscellaneous Rumblings
If you don't think there has been a conscious effort by all 30 clubs to take a tougher negotiating stance this offseason, guess again. And we're not just talking about dollars. Peruse this brief comparison of this free-agent market versus last winter's, just by length of contract alone (foreign free agents not included):
2002-03
Contracts longer than four years: 1 (Jim Thome).
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The all unemployed team
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No truth to the rumor the baseball unemployment rolls are now larger than the national unemployment rolls, but it seems like it. So here's my first jam-packed edition of the All-Unemployed team, with less than a month left till spring training. (We normally limit this to one player per position, but we could field our own all-unemployed division this year.)
1B: Travis Lee, Andres Galarraga, Tony Clark
2B: Keith Lockhart, Ron Belliard, Luis Alicea
SS: Jose Hernandez, Felix Martinez, Mike Benjamin
3B: John Valentin, Ron Coomer, Olmedo Saenz
LF: B.J. Surhoff, Rickey Henderson, Ron Gant
CF: Jose Cruz Jr., Kenny Lofton, Darren Lewis
RF: Reggie Sanders, Alex Ochoa, Orlando Palmeiro
C: Pudge Rodriguez, Tom Lampkin, Jorge Fabregas
DH: David Justice, David Ortiz, Ruben Sierra
Rotation: Kenny Rogers, Chuck Finley, Rick Helling, Julian Tavarez, Robert Person
Bullpen: Roberto Hernandez, Rick White, Juan Acevedo, Mike Jackson, Dennis Reyes, Mike Fetters
Utility players: John Vander Wal, Delino DeShields, Terry Shumpert, Randy Velarde, Carlos Baerga, Charles Gipson, Shawon Dunston
Comeback player of the year candidates: Al Martin, Dave Nilsson, Dante Bichette
-- Jayson Stark
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Four-year contracts: 5 (Cliff Floyd, Edgardo Alfonzo, David Bell, Frank Thomas and Ray Durham, if you count his fourth-year player option).
Three-year contracts: 4 (Tom Glavine, Mike Stanton, Jamie Moyer, Mike Remlinger).
2001-02
Contracts longer than four years: 2 (Jason Giambi, Chan Ho Park).
Four-year contracts: 6 (Roger Cedeno, Jason Isringhausen, Jason Schmidt, Steve Karsay, Johnny Damon and Barry Bonds -- after accepting arbitration).
Three-year contracts: 12 (John Smoltz, David Weathers, Tino Martinez, Moises Alou, Danny Bautista, Jason Christiansen, Marty Cordova, Aaron Sele, Todd Van Poppel, Jay Powell, Bob Wickman and Bret Boone -- after accepting arbitration).
So that's 20 contracts of three years or longer to last winter's free agents -- versus half that many this winter. With more players on the market this winter than last. And if you think that's a coincidence, we've got some terrific Enron stock we'd like to offer you.
Hideki Matsui seemed cool and personable in his monstrous press conference in New York this week. But players who went on the American All-Stars' tour of Japan aren't sure he can handle everything that's about to descend on him as a Yankee.
One player on the tour praised Matsui's ability, but said: "I worry about him in New York. He seemed a little nervous in every at-bat, and if he gets off to a bad start there, he may struggle."
One of the many fascinating subplots to the Bartolo Colon trade is that the Expos met with 14 teams at the winter meetings -- and the White Sox weren't one of them. At the meetings, the White Sox were actually more focused on trading for Russ Ortiz than they were on an Expos deal.
No one will say it publicly, but Major League Baseball put the Expos in an unworkable situation in just about every way in this mess.
First off, it should never have come to this, because the Expos should have been out of town by now. But since it did, GM Omar Minaya was forced to announce to the world that he had to cut more than $10 million in payroll.
Second, several teams dealing with the Expos have complained about their lack of decent scouting reports on the young players being discussed. But remember, this team has had to operate with a scouting operation smaller than David Eckstein -- and it lost all its old scouting information when the current Marlins management took it south with them.
Third, it clearly has been MLB strategy to flood the market with free agents this winter. Then baseball dropped Jose Contreras into the mix in late December, which gave too many potential suitors too many other options. So given all that, it's amazing the Expos got as much as they did.
But how well did the Expos do? Some assessments from scouts on the guys they got:
El Duque: "He can pitch when he wants to, but I see a lot of DL time in his future up there. Joe (Torre) had had enough of him, but he couldn't get rid of him because he won in October. And if Joe didn't like him, I'm worried that Frank Robinson may kill him."
Jeff Liefer: "I don't know whether he can play first base, but he's a very good hitter. He's got power. I know that."
Rocky Biddle: "A sixth-inning kind of guy. Good arm. Looks good on the radar-gun readings. But very inconsistent."
With Colon now in the land of the deep dish, it will be fashionable to pick the White Sox to win the AL Central. But one AL GM says anyone who thinks the Twins were a one-and-done fluke wasn't paying attention.
"They could actually be better," the GM said. "Just based on experience. I think you'll see them play at a more relaxed level, without so much pressure. My sense, from watching those guys, is that they think they just made the first step. I like the way they go about their business. Barring injury, they'll be real good."
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Quips of the week
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It's always a sign of a good story when the big headlines of the day evolve into a slice of late-night monologue life. Like Pete Rose, for instance.
From Jay Leno: "Pete Rose was on his way to being reinstated in baseball until he asked the Commissioner, 'What are the
odds?' "
From Conan O'Brien: "Some Texas businessmen want to turn the Astrodome into a giant casino. It's all part of the campaign to get Pete Rose back into baseball."
And one of David Letterman's Top 10 Ways Pete Rose Can Improve His Image: "Write and star in the delightful comedy, 'My Big Fat Pete Rose Wedding.' "
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The White Sox, though, should be real good themselves. The Twins' second through fifth starters last year (assuming Brad Radke was their No. 1) were a combined 10 games over .500. The White Sox's second through fifth starters were nine games under .500.
Colon changes that math singlehandedly, even though reports of his ballooning offseason weight suggest he can eat more than innings.
"My concern about them," said one AL scout, "is that they may turn into the Red Sox. Good offense. Good rotation with the top two guys. Good in the 'pen now with Billy Koch (and the apparent impending signing of Tom Gordon). So they'd have good playoff pitching. But the 3-4-5 starters have to come through, or they won't get there."
And how about what this deal does to baseball's most bizarre division, the AL Central? "Tell you one thing," said the same scout, "it's now a two-tiered division."
How big is the difference between the top tier (Twins and White Sox) and the bottom tier (Royals, Tigers, Indians)?
One possible configuration of the Royals' entire prospective rotation -- Runelvys Hernandez, Jeremy Affeldt, Darrell May, Chris George and Jimmy Osting -- won 11 games combined last year. So not only did Colon win more games than all of them, he won nearly as many games as all of them with two different teams (10 wins apiece for the Indians and Expos).
There has been a lot of speculation about the Giants signing Jose Hernandez, but clubs that have spoken with them say they're still trying to cut their payroll another $5-6 million. One intriguing name who is available in the right deal: Felix Rodriguez.
The Giants are now leaning against moving Ray Durham to center field, at least initially. If they opt for that scenario, Durham would play second, Edgardo Alfonzo would play third, and they would juggle center and right among a group that (for now) includes Marquis Grissom, Marvin Benard and possibly even Pedro Feliz, who has never played the outfield.
But if Durham is amenable to the outfield, the Giants could still go with Durham in center, Alfonzo at second, Feliz at third and Grissom and Benard in right. However it lines up, though, the Giants continue to hunt for another low-budget veteran outfielder.
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| 2002 SEASON STATISTICS |
| GM |
IP |
W-L |
BB |
SO |
ERA |
| 35 |
217.0 |
18-8 |
65 |
178 |
3.24 |
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One of the first things the Phillies did after trading for Kevin Millwood was see if agent Scott Boras was amenable to getting Millwood signed long-term. But Millwood -- who has a year left before free agency -- wants to see how comfortable he is in Philadelphia first. So Millwood's free-agent clock will start ticking. If he bails, the Phillies undoubtedly would make another run at reacquiring Curt Schilling next winter.
The Phillies' biggest worry is still their bullpen. But when people handicap that bullpen around the country, they never seem to mention Turk Wendell. His rehab from May elbow surgery has gone great, and he could be a vital set-up force.
With David Coggin (mid-April ETA after September shoulder surgery) and Bud Smith (May ETA after shoulder surgery) both behind the spring pack, however, the Phillies are still shopping for bullpen help. Among the names on their list: Jose Cabrera and Bob Wells.
Is Damian Moss the first player ever to go immediately from finishing fourth in the Rookie-of-the-Year voting to settling before filing his arbitration numbers? Moss spent a year and a half of his career on the Braves' disabled list before he ever pitched in the big leagues. So after 38 career trips to the mound, he's already a "three-plus" year player. Good work if you can get it.
One team proving that you don't have to use the nontender option as just a bottom-line payroll game is the Blue Jays. They raised eyebrows by making a free agent out of Jose Cruz Jr., arguably the best player ever to get nontendered. But they turned the $5 million they saved into a starting pitcher (Tanyon Sturtze), a No. 2 catcher (Greg Myers) and two of the best role players on the market (Mike Bordick and Frank Catalanotto). Combined salaries of those four: exactly $5 million.
The Marlins turned down opportunities to trade him to five different teams in the good old USA and took the money. So the most interested team, the Red Sox, reacted by violating an almost sacrosanct unwritten rule and claimed him. Then they spent much of Thursday unsuccessfully trying to convince Chunichi to let Millar out of a two-year, $6.2-million contract by offering money and a substitute player.
It still could happen, though, if the folks in Japan become concerned that Millar never really wanted to be a Dragon in the first place -- and decide to accept the Red Sox offer. What a mess.
Nothing we like more than rummaging through the offseason contracts. No private planes or luxury boxes handed out this winter so far. But there's something amusing about the fact that the Brewers gave a World Series MVP incentive clause to Dave Mlicki, Keith Osik, Todd Ritchie, Royce Clayton and (of course) Valerio De Los Santos -- but the Yankees didn't give one to Roger Clemens, Robin Ventura or Todd Zeile.
Jayson Stark is a senior writer for ESPN.com.
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