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Thursday, August 8
Updated: August 9, 10:15 PM ET
 
Byrd, Winn staying put; others could still be traded

By Jayson Stark
ESPN.com

It's official now. Paul Byrd is going to finish the season as a Royal. Randy Winn is going to finish the season as a Devil Ray. Sidney Ponson is going to finish the season as an Oriole.

For a few weeks there before the trading deadline, they were all human trade rumors. But they don't have to give any thought to getting traded this month -- because none of them cleared waivers this week.

We've pieced together information from a variety of sources on the first week of the August waiver period. And here's a list of 20 pitchers who can be traded between now and the end of the month, because they've apparently gone unclaimed by all 30 teams:

Starters
Livan Hernandez, Scott Erickson, Kenny Rogers, Ismael Valdes, Julian Tavarez, Jeff Suppan, Esteban Loaiza, Steve Parris and Rob Bell.

Relievers
Roberto Hernandez, Keith Foulke, Jeff Fassero, Tom Gordon, Mike Timlin, Juan Acevedo, Vic Darensbourg, Jay Powell, Todd Van Poppel, Felix Heredia, Rheal Cormier and Joe Beimel.

Among position players who got through
Neifi Perez, Pudge Rodriguez, Frank Catalanotto, Shane Halter, Matt Lawton, Michael Tucker, Doug Glanville and Royce Clayton.

On the other hand, you would probably be amazed by some players who did get claimed, even in a period in which claiming, from all accounts, has been lighter than in previous years. A partial list:

Starting pitchers: Paul Byrd, Paul Wilson, Sidney Ponson and Matt Clement.

Left-handed relievers: Dan Plesac, Kelly Wunsch, Ray King and Joey Eischen.

Right-handed relievers: Esteban Yan, Mike DeJean, Joe Borowski and Cliff Politte.

Position players: Jim Thome, Brian Giles, Scott Sauerbeck, Randy Winn, Shane Spencer, Kevin Mench.

Of course, not all players have been placed on waivers yet, either. That gets spread out throughout the month. So many more names will emerge.

What's clear, though, is that -- as predicted -- "enough guys are getting through," said one club executive, "that we all at least have names to have conversations about between now and the 31st."

And that, friends, is all Rumor Central asks.

The other Mr. Doubleday

  • Just a week ago, the annual Hall of Fame Game was played at romantic Doubleday Field in Cooperstown. A week later, the name, Doubleday, isn't evoking such warm and fuzzy feelings around baseball.

    We have no idea what the outcome will be of Mets co-owner Nelson Doubleday's lawsuit against partner Fred Wilpon. But it's a case well worth paying attention to.

    It's one thing to have Congressmen, columnists or players suggesting that Major League Baseball's financial figures don't add up.

    It's quite another to have one of MLB's own longtime owners charging that the losses claimed by Bud Selig and his cohorts are a "sham."

    It's not just a New York story anymore when an owner is accusing MLB of being "determined to manufacture phantom operating losses and depress franchise values ... (as) the cornerstone of MLB's labor strategy and an incredible public relations campaign."

    MLB, not surprisingly, is denying everything. MLB's president and chief operating officer, Bob DuPuy, called Doubleday's charges "nonsense and a complete fabrication." Nevertheless, regardless of whether this suit ever reaches a court room, the questions asked of Selig and his closest advisors could get very uncomfortable.

    "Before it ever gets to court," said one attorney who has done some work representing MLB in the past, "you would need to get to discovery (which allows attorneys to subpoena a vast amount of information). In a case like this, I can't see a judge not allowing discovery. And discovery would be very bad (for MLB)."

  • Doubleday also raises some intriguing questions in his complaint about Robert Starkey, the former Arthur Andersen accountant brought in by Selig to craft many, if not all, of the owners' recent financial strategies.

    Why, for instance, did Starkey allegedly tell Doubleday's representatives that he was "instructed by Major League Baseball" to issue his appraisal of the Mets' franchise value without even speaking with Doubleday?

    Why was Starkey allegedly recommended by MLB as an "independent" appraiser in this case when he'd also been the architect of baseball's controversial "60/40 rule," which uses a formula that appears to vastly understate the value of most, if not all, franchises -- including the Mets?

    Why was Starkey allegedly allowed to consult with a former colleague at Arthur Andersen -- his partner's accounting firm? And why did Starkey allegedly neglect to mention to Doubleday that information from the buyer's accountants would be used to help draw up an "independent" appraisal?

  • The suit also raises legitimate questions about the whole 60/40 formula, which ostensibly is used to estimate each franchise's value so MLB can determine whether it is accumulating too much debt.

    According to the suit, Starkey's formula estimates a franchise's value as two times its annual revenues (including revenue sharing). But if that's accurate, the Expos' value, according to the formula, would be $68 million. So why did MLB purchase the club from Jeffrey Loria for more than double that amount (about $150 million)?

  • One other irony in Doubleday's complaint:

    Here we actually have an owner using the recent Forbes magazine assessment of baseball economics -- described by the commissioner as "pure fiction" -- as a reference. The suit describes Forbes' work in estimating franchise values as "a benchmark in the industry." Which isn't quite how Selig characterized it.

    It also contends that if Forbes' estimates are inaccurate, they are wrong because they "undervalue teams by 20 percent," compared with what those franchises eventually sell for.

    If that were true, it would mean that Starkey's assessment of the Mets' true value would be about $200 million low. Which would explain why this lawsuit was filed in the first place.

    Miscellaneous Rumblings

  • Very quietly, the 2003 schedules were distributed to clubs around baseball this week. And if contraction is still the first item on Selig's To-Do List, you couldn't tell from those schedules.

    Sources say the schedule shows all 30 clubs playing next year and lists the Expos in Montreal. Obviously, it would be tough to list them as playing anywhere else at the moment. But it's interesting to note that their designated interleague rival is still listed as Toronto -- and the schedule shows home-and-home series in both Toronto and Montreal. Well, pending further developments, anyway.

  • Barry Bonds may soon be the fourth member of the 600 Homer Club. But he isn't the most likely current 30-something slugger to pass Hank Aaron.

    Says who? Says Pete Rose.

    Sammy Sosa
    Right fielder
    Chicago Cubs
    Profile
    CAREER STATISTICS
    GM HR RBI BB SB AVG
    1,833 483 1,310 714 233 .278

    "I think Sammy (Sosa) has a better chance at the record than Bonds," Rose said. "One reason is age. One guy (Bonds) is 38. The other (Sosa) is 33. And the second reason, most important, is he's a Cub. That's why Barry Bonds walks 190 times and Sammy Sosa walks 110 times -- because the Cubs lose all the time.

    "If Sammy was on a good team that was in the pennant race, he'd get walked that much, too. So he'd get 70 fewer at-bats a year. If you're trying to win the game, you don't pitch to Sammy Sosa. But the fact that Sammy gets those extra 60 to 70 at-bats every year, if he gets them for 10 years, that's an extra 600 to 700 at-bats.

    "See, now is the hard part of breaking that record. I used to say the first 3,000 hits were easy to get, just like the first 500 home runs are easy to hit. The next 2,000 hits -- and the next 200 home runs -- are hard to get. Barry's not gonna keep doing this (at this rate) another four, five years. He's not gonna do this at 42. That's where you lose contact."

  • Jon Lieber is heading for Tommy John surgery this month and probably won't be seen pitching in the big leagues again until 2004. But not much more than a week ago, the Cubs and Phillies talked briefly about a deal that would have made Lieber the centerpiece of a trade bringing Scott Rolen to the Cubs.

    Fortunately, that one didn't go far. The Cubs -- who didn't know the extent of Lieber's elbow trouble themselves at that point -- quickly withdrew his name from the conversation, according to sources who have talked with both teams.

  • There were rumblings that the Mariners and Blue Jays talked again this week about a trade that would have sent Jose Cruz Jr. to Seattle. That would indicate that Cruz apparently was claimed on waivers by Seattle, after which they made one final attempt to work out a deal.

    But when those clubs talked before the deadline, Toronto was pressing for the inclusion of Rafael Soriano in any deal for Cruz. And there now are concerns about the health of Soriano's shoulder. So with another player Toronto liked, Chris Snelling, out for the year, the clubs didn't match up, and the Blue Jays apparently withdrew the waivers. Meaning Cruz isn't going anywhere this year.

  • The Indians now think they can keep Jim Thome, as long as they can make a reasonably competitive offer when he hits free agency this winter. And with all the payroll they've cleared, they can probably do it without further veteran-lopping. But they're expected to at least listen to offers on Ellis Burks and Matt Lawton nonetheless.

  • For all the talk about Randy Winn's great year, the one young Devil Rays player one GM says he'd most like to have is Aubrey Huff: "He's a talented kid. I'd take him in a minute. I think his position is left field, but he can really do some things."

  • Speaking of the Devil Rays, GM Chuck LaMar denies a recent item of ours, in which we quoted an executive of one team that asked about Esteban Yan as saying that LaMar wanted two top prospects and a fringe minor leaguer back. In fact, before the deadline, Rays people are saying they had nearly no substantive nibbles on Yan.

    LaMar also disputes reports that he wanted two top prospects for Randy Winn, saying he never proposed a single 2-for-1 deal involving Winn.

  • Even before Paul Byrd ever hit the waiver wire (and got claimed, according to our sources), Royals GM Allard Baird knew when the deadline arrived he wouldn't be able to move Byrd in August.

    Orlando Hudson
    Second baseman
    Toronto Blue Jays
    Profile
    2002 SEASON STATISTICS
    GM AB HR RBI SB AVG
    13 44 2 8 0 .341

    Baird worked feverishly right till 4 p.m. ET to try to deal Byrd for a young, big-league-ready second baseman. But the prospect of getting the dazzling Orlando Hudson from Toronto (in a three-way deal involving the Mets) apparently was so appealing, Baird is believed to have waited on that one until the final hour before the deadline, because Hudson was, by far, his first choice.

    It wasn't until right before the deadline that the Mets opted to trade for John Thomson instead of Byrd. And that left the Royals with no real attractive options. Baird has taken some heat for this, on the premise that Byrd isn't affordable as a free agent. But returning to Kansas City is his first choice. And if there's a labor deal requiring Royals owner David Glass to spend his revenue-sharing money on players, Byrd will almost certainly re-sign.

  • Pedro Martinez's recent numbers (0.55 ERA, 25 hits, 69 strikeouts in 49 1/3 IP since July 1) look like vintage Pedro. But one scout says that, believe it or not, he thinks Martinez is still holding back.

    "He doesn't want to exert himself unless he has to," the scout said. "Any team he can get out with breaking stuff, he does. He throws a lot of changeups. I know that."

  • The Twins made no deals at the deadline and can't keep their rotation healthy. But another AL scout says they're the most underappreciated team in the whole sport.

    "All they need to do (to win in October) is get their starting pitchers healthy," he said. "They've got a really good club. They're balanced. They've got great depth in the outfield. They're just spotting (Michael) Cuddyer right now, but he could be a starter on 75 percent of the other teams in the league. They play hard. They catch the ball. They've got a great team concept. My only concern is that they don't have a legit 1-2 starter for October, as they shape up right now. But Mays or Milton have the stuff to be that guy."

  • Finally, since the true measure of many of these deadline deals will be how the prospects who got dealt turn out, we surveyed two scouting directors to see how they rated the minor leaguers who were traded last month:

    Frankie Francisco and Byeong Hak An (Red Sox to White Sox for Bobby Howry)
    "Both just marginal guys. Francisco has a chance to be a bullpen guy, but he's had a lot of problems. Just a fringy guy."

    Sun-Woo Kim and Seung Jun Song (Red Sox to Expos for Cliff Floyd)
    "Of the two, I like Song better. I like his stuff, but he has some issues with command and control. What he'll end up being, I'm not sure. I just thought, for a guy like Floyd, they could have gotten more. I thought they gave up more to get him. We weren't that high on (Justin) Wayne, but some people like him. And (Don) Levinsky has some definite upside. Has a chance to be a power starter."

    David Espinosa (Reds to Tigers for Brian Moehler)
    "I always liked his speed. He can hit. And he's an athlete. But I'm not sure what he'll be. He's not a shortstop. I'm not sure he's a second baseman. He might end up in the outfield. ... The trouble is, the contract is brutal. There's a guy who, if you could let him develop at his own pace, has a chance to be something. But because he got a big-league contract out of high school, you'd have to force-feed him and he won't be ready when he runs out of options."

    Claudio Vargas (traded with Floyd from Marlins to Expos)
    "Saw him pitch this year and really liked him. Good arm. Good breaking ball. I think he'll be a No. 2-3 starter in the big leagues. Three solid pitches. Went after the hitters. Around the plate with all three."

    Brandon Phillips, Cliff Lee, Grady Sizemore (Expos to Indians for Bartolo Colon)
    "I think (Phillips will) be a second baseman (not a shortstop), but he's a real good player. He's not quite (Roberto) Alomar. But he's a front-line guy with a chance to be an All-Star. He may turn out to be Lou Whitaker. ... Lee came on this year. He'll pitch in the big leagues. But we're not sure he's an upper-level guy. ... Sizemore is a real good athlete. The jury's still out on him. But he could be one of those all-or-nothing guys. You've either got a star or a guy who never puts it together."

    Doug Nickle (throw-in from Phillies to Cardinals in Scott Rolen deal)
    "We've always liked his arm. He'll be a serviceable major-league reliever, I think, as a sixth- and seventh-inning guy."

    Ben Diggins (Dodgers to Brewers for Tyler Houston)
    "Very disappointing. I thought he'd develop into a big-time guy, but he'll probably end up in the bullpen. Just a one-pitch guy. Never came up with a breaking ball."

    Ricardo Rodriguez (Dodgers to Indians for Paul Shuey)
    "All our people really like him. Real good reports across the board. And the other guy they got (Francisco Cruceta) might have even more upside, even though he's farther away."

    Franklyn German and Jeremy Bonderman (A's to Tigers in Jeff Weaver-Ted Lilly deal)
    "German's got a big arm. I think he'll be an (Armando) Benitez-type guy down the road. ... Bonderman's also got a big arm and great upside. What his role will be has yet to be determined."

    Jason Arnold and John Ford-Griffin (Yankees to A's in Lilly-Weaver three-team deal)
    "Arnold has some arm strength, but he'll probably wind up in the bullpen or the middle of the rotation. ... John Ford-Griffin, to me, is way overrated. Handles the bat a little, but very non-athletic. I actually think the Tigers did pretty well in that one."

    Jayson Stark is a senior writer for ESPN.com.







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