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Tuesday, September 25
 
AL candidates line up for MVP Award

By Jayson Stark
ESPN.com

It's one of those questions that can't be answered -- kind of like, "Who's the funniest comedian in the world?" or, "Who's got the reddest swimsuit on Baywatch?"

So here it comes -- our unanswerable question of the day:

Who's the American League MVP?

Ichiro Suzuki
Ichiro's unique style of hitting has helped Seattle to baseball's best record.

We've polled scouts and general managers. We've crunched numbers till they turned into hieroglyphics. This is just about impossible.

The candidates, please:

  • Jason Giambi. Leads the league in on-base percentage and OPS, second in slugging percentage, doubles and extra-base hits.

  • Ichiro. On a pace for the first 244-hit season since 1930. Highest average with men in scoring position (.469) in the 20 years it's been computed. Leads the league in hitting, multi-hit games and Tokyo Nielsen ratings. Second in runs scored and stolen bases.

  • Bret Boone. Most home runs and RBI by a second baseman in AL history. Has a shot at the third 40-homer, 200-hit, 140-RBI season by any AL player since Joe DiMaggio in 1937.

  • Roberto Alomar. Top five in AL in batting, hits, runs, on-base percentage, triples, average with men in scoring position (.437) and Web Gem appearances. Might be the first infielder ever to hit .330, with 20 homers, 20 steals, 100 RBI, 30 doubles and 10 triples.

  • Juan Gonzalez. Needs 10 RBI to become the first American Leaguer with two 150-RBI seasons since DiMaggio. Also in the top seven in batting average, homers, multi-hit games, total bases, slugging percentage and average with men in scoring position.

    So how do you pick a winner from that group? Ouija board? Dart board? Eenie-meenie? Might as well -- because there's no wrong answer. And maybe no right answer. But being the perfectionist goofballs we are, we set out to take a slightly more scientific approach.

    "It all depends on your philosophy," said Indians assistant GM Mark Shapiro. "If you look at one player whose team can't live without him, that takes a lot of guys off the charts.

    "If that's your criterion, then a lot of people would feel it can't be Alomar, [Jim] Thome or Gonzalez, because all three guys play on the same team. And it would impact Boone and Ichiro, and Edgar [Martinez], for that matter. So if that's your criterion, the leading guy would have to be Giambi. But that isn't everybody's criterion."

    Exactly. What makes these MVP debates worth holding is that there's nothing in the voting instructions that says that has to be the criterion. Almost anything can be the criterion: Numbers. Facial hair. Guest shots on Letterman.

    But we've held this ballot in our hands ourselves several times, and these were the questions we asked:

    1. Which players had great years for good teams? (All six of those names qualify.)
    2. Were these players' numbers compiled in the context of meaningful games, as opposed to simply for teams that made the playoffs? (All six qualify again.)
    3. Were certain players' contributions more important to their teams' finish than others? (We'll look at that.) 4. If you have more than one candidate from a team, who was that team's true MVP? (We'll look at that, too.)
    5. Did any of these players make significant contributions to their team off the field? (And that, too.)

    If this were simply about which player in the American League had the best season, you could mail this trophy to A-Rod right now. But since his team has been out of the race since he filed his income-tax return, he's going to finish down the ballot, through no fault of his own.

    So let's examine those six prime candidates and, as our first step, figure out which ones were the MVPs on their own team.

    Giambi is a no-brainer. Cleveland and Seattle are a mess. But the consensus of the people we surveyed is that the Indians' MVP is Alomar, and the Mariners' MVP is Ichiro.

    In Cleveland, said one GM, "It's got to be Alomar, because he has an impact on the game offensively, defensively and on the basepaths. And he's been out there every day, all season."

    Gonzalez will lead the league in RBI. Thome could lead the league in homers. But Alomar is a factor in the top and bottom of every inning. The other two aren't.

    In Seattle, meanwhile, it's Ichiro who has not only influenced the game with his bat, legs, glove and arm, but made many of those Bret Boone RBI possible. As great a year as Boone has had -- and his team needed every one of those RBI -- he and teammate John Olerud are the only two players in the league with over 200 plate appearances with runners in scoring position. It's no coincidence their leadoff man has 227 hits.

    So we've narrowed the field to Giambi, Ichiro and Alomar. Now we're further narrowing it -- to Giambi and Ichiro.

    Much as we would pay to watch Alomar any day of any week, there isn't a single category except triples in which he leads both Giambi and Ichiro. His team hasn't had the season the A's and Mariners have had. And his piece of the Indians' puzzle isn't quite as large. So sorry, Robbie. You're No. 3 on this ballot.

    That leaves us with Giambi and Ichiro. And there's no doubt Giambi has had less offensive help than Ichiro has had. Take a look.

    Percent of team's runs scored
    Ichiro: 118 of 848 -- 13.9 percent
    Giambi: 99 of 815 -- 12.1 percent

    Percent of team's RBI
    Giambi: 109 of 768 -- 14.2 percent
    Ichiro: 68 of 805 -- 8.4 percent

    So while Giambi's percentage of his team's runs scored isn't much less than Ichiro's (12.8 percent lower), Giambi's chunk of his team's RBI is far greater than Ichiro's (40.8 percent lower).

    Then again, it could be argued that Ichiro's job isn't to drive in runs. And since his average with runners in scoring position is so high, it obviously isn't his fault his RBI total is so low.

    "To me," said Oakland GM Billy Beane, "the greatest stat Ichiro has is his average with runners in scoring position. To me, that's one of the special attributes he has."

    To us, though, the best argument for Ichiro, apart from numbers, is this: He plays for The Team of the Year. And if there has been one overriding reason there has been such a buzz about the Mariners, that reason is Ichiro. He's been a source of nonstop energy, in every way.

    "He's added an electricity to the game," Shapiro said. "He's represented quite a bit of what's encouraging and positive and uplifting about the game this year -- with a really special team."

    But there are even people in Seattle who concede that as much as Ichiro has lifted his team, Giambi has done just as much heavy lifting, only in other ways.

    "I've said many times that if Giambi doesn't play, they're a different club," said Seattle GM Pat Gillick. "And one thing Giambi probably does that Ichiro doesn't is that he adds something to that clubhouse that Ichiro doesn't add, only because Ichiro doesn't speak the language."

    It obviously isn't fair to use language as a factor. But Ichiro's personality is such that he almost certainly wouldn't be a Giambi-esque leader even if did speak better English.

    "I'm obviously biased," said Beane, "but Jason's one of those rare guys who takes his team to another level. He epitomizes what the term 'MVP' is all about, with what he means to his club and his acceptance of that responsibility. As good a player as Jason is, he's a better person. ...

    "The argument for Ichiro, I think, is that he's a fabulous player," Beane said, "and that's a fabulous team, and people are trying to find out who's the most fabulous part of it. But the fact is, they're a team like the '98 Yankees. They're a fabulous team in all areas. Everyone feels that to justify their season, they should have the MVP, when there are really 25 pieces there that all fit together."

    Oakland, on the other hand, has more obvious weaknesses -- weaknesses that showed up glaringly during that 8-18 start. It is really just since the addition of Jermaine Dye that the Athletics' pieces have fit together the way they were supposed to. But the only reason they were still in position to make a playoff run before then is that Giambi held them together, on and off the field.

    Consider that Bret Boone has 77 more at-bats (183) with runners in scoring position than Giambi (106) -- and 51 more plate appearances (216-165). Juan Gonzalez has 49 more at-bats and 33 more plate appearances. Even Manny Ramirez has 49 more at-bats and 26 more plate appearances.

    "Of all the guys out there, Giambi carries his team on his shoulders," said one AL scout. "And he's done it for the team that's going to wind up with the second-best record in baseball."

    Though Ichiro is a leadoff man, his on-base percentage (.381) is 93 points lower than Giambi's (.474). Ichiro's slugging percentage is 183 points lower. He has walked almost 100 fewer times (122-29).

    So to us, Giambi looks like the guy with better numbers -- and the guy who has had a more disproportionate role in his team's great season. That would make him the MVP in our eyes.

    Then again, what do we know? We once took Joe Piscopo in that world's-funniest-comedian debate.

    Jayson Stark is a senior writer for ESPN.com.








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