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It's en vogue around the trading deadline to look at teams five games out of a playoff race and proclaim, "Hey, they're in contention. The GM should go after it." Deals fly fast and furious. But what exactly is "in contention"? How often do teams actually come back from such deficits?
Not very often. In fact, four- and five-game comebacks happen so rarely that trades made to facilitate one are probably throwing good money (prospects) after bad (an expensive veteran who won't help you enough).
It might not seem like much -- five, four, even three games to make up with two months and 60 or so games left to play -- but history proves that the deficit is far greater than it first appears. Consider these facts, derived from a standings database I built with information from the otherworldly retrosheet.org:
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History Doesn't Lie
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So you want to know if your team can make up ground during the stretch drive? History proves it's more difficult than you might think. Since division play began in 1969, here's the rate at which teams from 0-10 games out finished in first place:
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7/31 deficit
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No. of teams
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Finish
in 1st
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Pct.
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0-½
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159
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107
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67
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1-1½
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19
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8
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42
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2-2½
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21
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3
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14
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3-3½
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31
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10
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32
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4-4½
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37
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2
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5
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5-5½
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32
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3
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9
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6-6½
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36
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1
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3
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7-7½
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36
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2
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6
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8-8½
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33
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1
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3
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9-9½
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33
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0
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0
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10
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20
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0
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0
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Since divisional play began in 1969 (not including strike years of 1981 and 1994), of the 139 teams that have finished atop their division, 101 were already in first place or tied for first after games of July 31. And 27 of the 38 who came back from below hit the trading deadline 3½ games or less from the lead (see accompanying chart).
The dropoff after 3½ games is severe: Of the 105 teams that entered August between 4-6½ games back, just six (5.7 percent) came back to finish in first place. It turns out that teams 4-6½ games back at the deadline have been more than three times as likely to finish 10 games out as opposed to 3½ games or less.
If your team's exactly five games out on August 1, say your prayers: Of the 16 such teams since 1969, one (the '84 Royals) finished in first place -- and all 15 of the others finished six games out or more.
These results are pretty striking. I always figured that hopeful executives, fans and media have overestimated teams' chances of contention at the trading deadline, but this much? Basically, what history tells us is that coming back from any deficit of four or more games is at best a pipe dream -- and that trading inexpensive prospects for budget-busting veterans who probably can't put you over the top isn't a particularly good idea.
This suggests that the White Sox's infamous trade of Wilson Alvarez, Roberto Hernandez and Danny Darwin on July 31, 1997, when the team began the day three games back, wasn't necessarily insane (except in the illogical world of public relations). Just 13 of 67 clubs 2-4 games back on August 1 have come back to finish first -- 19 percent - or fewer than one in five. And just because Orioles owner Peter Angelos' confidence was proven correct when he put the kibosh on then-GM Pat Gillick's 1996 efforts to trade Bobby Bonilla and David Wells for prospects -- the team did overcome a 4-5 game deficit during trade-deadline week to leapfrog three other clubs and win the wild card -- the chances of this were probably less than one in 10.
Some important thoughts on this study:
The introduction of the wild card in 1995 shouldn't alter the comeback dynamic too much as we look forward. A deficit is a deficit; trying to catch someone X games ahead of you is the same no matter what the prize is called. This only affects the historical data a bit, since a few teams (such as the 1997 Marlins) knew they had the wild-card sewn up and didn't worry too much about how many games they finished behind the first-place Braves. But this is minor in interpreting the data.
It shouldn't be too surprising that teams have a hard time coming back, because they're swimming upstream: Five games out two-thirds of the way through the season projects to 7½ games at the end.
Coming back in a pennant race should be easier now than it was 20-30 years ago, for at least three reasons: There are no interleague trading restrictions anymore; the unbalanced schedule gives second-place teams more opportunities to play first-place teams; and more clubs are more anxious to deal veterans for financial reasons.
Still, it's awfully difficult. To crystallize this I defined three groups of July 31 teams: those in Contention (0-3½ games back), Still in It (4-6½) and Dreaming (7-10). The results:
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0-3½*
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4-6½*
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7-10*
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10½+*
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July 31
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Contention (230 total)
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165
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27
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22
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16
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Still in It
(105 total)
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14
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19
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21
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51
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Dreaming (121 total)
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13
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7
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24
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77
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* Finish
The results in percentage form:
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0-3½*
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4-6½*
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7-10*
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10½+*
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July 31
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Contention
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72
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12
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10
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7
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Still in It
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13
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18
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20
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49
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Dreaming
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11
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6
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20
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64
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* Finish
Looking closely, it's just amazing. Of the 105 clubs in the Still in It group on July 31, just 14 finished fewer than four games out -- while 51, almost four times as many, disintegrated to the point that they finished more than 10 games out. Yes, teams out of it entering the final week have little incentive to improve, but they're still out of it, by a lot.
All sorts of other tidbits came to light as I sifted through the data. Some of them:
Which teams came back from the largest deficits to finish in first place? The 1995 Mariners went 36-22 to overcome 11 games and catch the falling Angels. The 1973 Mets, in sixth and last place in the NL East on July 31, played 38-22 ball the rest of the way to erase a 10½-game deficit and win.
Which first-place team suffered the worst collapse? The 1977 Cubs led the NL East on July 31, but went 20-40 the rest of the way to finish a whopping 20 games behind the Phillies. The 1973 Yankees led the AL East on July 31 and still managed to finish 17 games out. That was George Steinbrenner's first season owning the team; no wonder he was in such a bad mood for 20 years.
The biggest improvements (in terms of winning percentage) after July 31? The 1997 Phillies vaulted 300 points (a 33-72 record followed by 35-22), the 2001 A's 267 (57-49 followed by their wild, Jermaine Dye-boosted 45-11).
The worst collapses? Only one club was worse than our 1977 Cubs friends, who dropped 265 points. The 1978 A's were 55-51 on July 31 before finishing with a 14-42 flourish, 268 points worse.
Alan Schwarz is the Senior Writer of Baseball America magazine and a regular contributor to ESPN.com.
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