Alan Schwarz

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Tuesday, April 23
 
Scouts give advantage to Big Three

By Alan Schwarz
Special to ESPN.com

Jason Giambi looked forward to wearing Yankee pinstripes.

He looked forward to the $120 million.

But he didn't look forward to this.

Jason Giambi
First Base
New York Yankees
Profile
2001 SEASON STATISTICS
GM HR RBI BB OPS AVG
20 4 10 10 .831 .263

Starting Tuesday in Oakland, Giambi's reunion with his old A's buddies will be interrupted by the small task of having to step in the batter's box against three of them -- Tim Hudson, Barry Zito and Mark Mulder -- for the first time. Yes, Mulder is on the disabled list with a sore left forearm. But if he returns in time for next week's return series at Yankee Stadium, as expected, the teams' six games in 10 days will allow each of Oakland's Big Three to get at least one start against their former MVP teammate.

He has been the most devastating offensive weapon in the American League, hitting .338 with 81 home runs and 257 RBI with the A's the past two years. They are baseball's best collection of young pitchers, posting an otherworldly 56-25 record last year. Who cares if they haven't started particularly well this season? (Giambi's hitting .263-4-10 and the Big Three is 4-3, 3.74.) This could be the most intriguing matchup of the young season, one that other big leaguers are anticipating as much as fans.

"I'll watch that," said Edgar Martinez, his eyebrows vaulting. "I think (Giambi) stays on the ball so well, has such tough at-bats. He doesn't basically have any holes. He'll take good swings. He might have a tough game, but he'll also get his hits."

Scouts are more skeptical. Prevailing wisdom is that when two players face each other for the first time the advantage swings to the pitcher. "The best way to beat a big-league team," one veteran scout says, "is to call up a guy from the minor leagues." But prevailing wisdom goes out the window when players of this caliber collide with no track record between them. Imagine if Chipper Jones faced lifelong teammates Greg Maddux or Tom Glavine -- it's barely fathomable. So even Giambi, Hudson, Zito and Mulder and will be in the dark until the bell rings.

Tim Hudson
Starting Pitcher
Oakland Athletics
Profile
2001 SEASON STATISTICS
GM W-L IP H K ERA
4 2-1 26.1 26 21 2.39

"It's not a very nice thought," Giambi says. "I know what they throw but I've never really stood in against them. It'll be exciting." Adds Mulder: "All of us pitch completely different. We all have different stuff." Zito simply chuckles fatalistically. "I'll have to look at the scouting report," he says. "I never analyzed him when we were playing together. I probably should have."

Giambi will face Hudson on Tuesday, followed by Eric Hiljus Wednesday and Zito on Thursday. Mulder is eligible to return from the disabled list over the weekend and could start against the Yankees in New York next week.

One scout sees Giambi having his most success against Hudson (2-1, 2.39), who relies on changing speeds, getting ahead and then letting hitters chase his diving splitter. Giambi is disciplined enough to neutralize that strategy and force a pitch or two to get a good whack at.

"He'll hit a fastball or changeup or split, so speed-wise he'll be OK," one scout says of the Hudson matchup. Adds another: "Hudson won't challenge him. If Giambi's impatient, advantage Hudson. But he'll keep the ball away. I'll bet he'll walk more than usual."

The most tantalizing thought is Giambi's reaction when Zito (0-1, 4.37) first breaks off one of his noneuclidean curveballs, which will start somewhere behind Giambi's right ear before divebombing through the strike zone. There's little platoon advantage with Giambi -- his 2001 OPS dropped from 1.137 overall to still more-than-hurtful 1.028 against lefties -- and Zito actually has more success against right-handers. Zito's approach will probably be to start with fastballs away and save his best curve as the dagger.

"Left-handers really don't bother him," one AL scout says of Giambi. "Anything out away he handles well, even a big breaking ball from a left-hander."

The one pitcher who can exploit Giambi's one weakness -- "hard stuff on the inner third of the plate, especially up," one scout says -- is Mulder (2-1, 4.91). Assuming he brings back his best fastball it could jam Giambi early and set up his splitter outside as the out pitch. "That combination of pitches is where it'll get interesting," adds another scout. "People who can bust him have the advantage -- but he handles pretty much anything."

Most agree that Giambi will choose to take more pitches than he already tends to so that he can gauge his new opponents, so for the pitchers getting ahead becomes even more paramount. "I don't care if he goes 4-for-4 as long as we win," Oakland manager Art Howe says.

One of the scouts doesn't see the 4-for-4 part happening: "I think he'll experience some of the misery the rest of the league has the past few years. He's gonna realize how lucky he was staring in from first base when those guys were pitching."

And now, the rest of us get to stare at baseball's version of a solar eclipse -- Giambi up against Hudson, Zito and Mulder, a rare sight in the game's sky of stars. Most involved agree that the three pitchers are so skilled that regardless of Giambi's talent they will set the tone. Agrees Giambi, "You gotta hope to hit a mistake."

He can't expect many.

Alan Schwarz is the Senior Writer of Baseball America magazine and a regular contributor to ESPN.com.







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