Was Tuesday night's All-Star Game an omen?
Nobody knows if the 2002 season will be played to competition. But serious business was on the mind of Curt Schilling and other players when they headed home from Milwaukee.
"If we are going to be world champions again we have to play like it out of the gate," Schilling said after starting for the National League. "We have the Dodgers and Giants the rest of this month. We're chasing somebody, so we are going to find out what we are made of."
Barring a season-ending shutdown sometime after mid-August, we'll learn a lot between now and October. Here's a quick trip through the National League as the second half begins:
East division
1. Braves
Thanks to a 37-11 record since May 15, Bobby Cox's team has the best record in the majors and the third-best record at the break in club history. With a quick start, it could put the division title away before August. It not only has a lead of 9 1/2 games but has lots of games against Montreal and Florida out of the gate. If Cox could have one wish, it would probably be a healthy Greg Maddux. He has been limited by a variety of injuries all season, with a calf strain and bruised shin following the back problems that bothered him early in the year. GM John Schuerholz always finds a way to tweak his roster but don't expect anything major.
2. Expos
Bartolo Colon delivered a loud message and there might be more help coming as Omar Minaya works 24/7 to improve Frank Robinson's chances to put the orphaned Expos into a playoff race. That Cliff Floyd-Ryan Dempster swaporama has not come to pass, making you wonder if MLB will sign off on an increased payroll, but who knows what is going on with this franchise? Even if he can't take on much salary, Minaya ought to be able to find a way to improve at first base, currently manned by Andres Galarraga and Wil Cordero. He could also add some experience in the bullpen. He's still got lots of prospects to deal. The Expos are a longshot, but their starting rotation gives them a chance.
3. Marlins
Boy, that Jeffrey Loria knows how to throw a party, doesn't he? Jeff Torborg and his coaches are doing a wonderful job with a thin roster but Loria can't be bothered to discuss a contract extension with Cliff Floyd. Makes no sense, whatsoever, but the Marlins should at least be able to get a good return on Floyd as lots of teams are interested, including the Giants and Expos. With Josh Beckett expected back soon and Cuban lefty Michael Tejera (5-1, 2.87 ERA) throwing zeroes, Florida's rotation could be as strong as it has been all season. But Torborg has pushed his starters harder than any other manager, with A.J. Burnett (six) and his partners combining for nine 120-pitch starts. That wear and tear could become an issue. The biggest question is how many Marlins will be left standing when the sun comes up on Aug. 1?
4. Mets
Remember when we thought this was a team that would challenge Atlanta? The second half has ugly written all over it, with Mo Vaughn creating a stench that has turned Shea Stadium back into the gloomy place it was before 2000. The two hottest storylines are battles for control -- Fred Wilpon vs. Nelson Doubleday at the ownership level and Steve Phillips vs. Bobby Valentine at the management level. The Mets have sputtered all season, leaving only a question of blame. Phillips is sure to deal some veterans, with Pedro Astacio attracting scouts in recent days. There were rumors about possible Robbie Alomar trades making the rounds in Milwaukee.
5. Phillies
Thank goodness for Pat Burrell. He gives fans one player to watch as he's got a chance to become Philadelphia's first 40-homer, 120-RBI player since Mike Schmidt. But otherwise about all fans can look forward to is the arrival of center fielder Marlon Byrd and pitcher Brett Myers. Third baseman Scott Rolen is the name always mentioned in trade talk but there's probably a better chance of GM Ed Wade moving Travis Lee, Robert Person, Terry Adams, Doug Glanville or Dan Plesac.
Central division
1. Cardinals
Grief is probably their biggest obstacle to a division title. With everything that has gone wrong, Tony La Russa has the Redbirds on a pace to win 90 games. That's at least 10 less than seemed feasible in spring training but could be enough given the slide of supposed contenders Houston and Chicago. Woody Williams' sore back added to the sense of urgency that GM Walt Jocketty is feeling in his search for starting pitching. Chuck Finley, Al Leiter and Scott Erickson are among the veterans that St. Louis scouts have been watching. The health, and hitting, of J.D. Drew is a key.
2. Reds
While Cincinnati has spent more time in first than any other Central team, an 8-12 finish to the first half undermined the belief that this is a team that can hold up. Jimmy Haynes and Elmer Dessens have been workhorses for an overachieving rotation, but how long can they keep it up? On the other hand, the Reds have been winning without production from Ken Griffey. If the real Junior shows up in August, he could help keep the race interesting. Ownership isn't likely to sign off on any significant salaries but GM Jim Bowden is as creative as they come. If it's a buyer's market -- and it will be -- he'll find a way to stay busy.
3. Astros
If Craig Biggio ever gets going, look out. Despite a patchwork starting rotation, Jimy Williams' club won eight of its last 10 in the first half to close within 6 1/2 games of St. Louis. Lance Berkman and Jeff Bagwell are capable of putting the offensive heat on the Cardinals. The versatile Geoff Blum has been a real find. But the question is whether the Astros can win with the likes of Nelson Cruz, Tim Redding and Peter Munro in the rotation. Dave Mlicki and Carlos Hernandez could return from the DL to contribute but the best thing that can happen is a jump out of the gate that convinces Drayton McLane to add a veteran starter.
4. Pirates
Aramis Ramirez might not have been the most injured player in baseball but he sure looked it at times, hobbling around like an over-the-hill softball player. If he ever returns to health, he should contribute to a lineup that needs help. Of course, if GM Dave Littlefield does something crazy like trading Brian Giles, it won't matter. You hear Littlefield will listen to talks about Giles but will only trade him for a big package. If nothing else, Pirates fans will monitor Josh Fogg's attempt to be Pittsburgh's first-ever Rookie of the Year.
5. Cubs
Let the Bruce Kimm era begin. There's little doubt this team, on track for a 66-96 finish, will play better for Kimm than it did for Don Baylor, only because it would be hard to play worse. If it doesn't improve, it would be the fourth year of 94-plus losses in the last six. But that isn't going to happen -- not with Kerry Wood, Jon Lieber, Mark Prior and Matt Clement in the starting rotation. But neither is a winning season, which would have given the Cubs back-to-back winning seasons for the first time 1971-72.
6. Brewers
For GM Dean Taylor, the mission is two-fold. The first is to hold onto his job, which is hanging by a thread, and the other is avoid the first 100-loss season in franchise history. If Wendy Selig-Prieb doesn't decide to make a change, Taylor will spend the next few weeks trying to find a market for a collection of underwhelming veterans headed by Jamey Wright, All-Star Jose Hernandez, Alex Ochoa, Matt Stairs and Mark Loretta. Hey, it's Milwaukee; what can go wrong?
West division
1. Dodgers
Nobody had as great a first half as Jim Tracy's guys. They opened without a leadoff man and closer and finished as pretty much the complete package, despite an injury to Kevin Brown. Oh, they could upgrade at second base -- and there has been talk of an Alomar deal. The question is the durability of closer Eric Gagne and a starting rotation that had three All-Star candidates. Odalis Perez, Hideo Nomo, Andy Ashby and Omar Daal were 8-17 in the second half last season and are 99-113 career after the break. Kaz Ishii, who was used to working every sixth or seventh day in Japan, may tire. They could get a major lift from Darren Dreifort, who is just about ready to begin a rehab assignment. Brown, who would hate to miss a chance to work in the playoffs, is working hard in hopes of returning in September.
2. Diamondbacks
The word on the street is that the Diamondbacks are very worried about Randy Johnson's health, and they should be. Given Jerry Colangelo's house-of-cards financing, this franchise is going to go as far as the Unit and Schilling can carry it for as long as they can carry it, and then it will get ugly, with Colangelo stripping the roster of veterans and trying to live off the goodwill created in the current era. That's why it's so important to give the two-headed monster another chance in October. The immediate priority for Arizona is revitalizing a lineup that produced two runs or less in five of the last seven games before the break. Matt Williams' return might make it a little tougher for pitchers to work around Luis Gonzalez, who is in a 2-for-29 slump. The Diamondbacks open the second half with an 11-game trip that takes them to every other city in the NL West.
3. Giants
Believe it or not, this may be Dusty Baker's last chance to get the Giants beyond the first round of the playoffs. His deal is up at the end of the season and the universally respected manager might decide the time is right to move on. He's looking to GM Brian Sabean to provide some second-half reinforcements. Sabean is looking for one more bat to put in the middle of the order. He might not wind up with Cliff Floyd but history says he won't come home empty-handed. The most intriguing question, though, is whether Sabean will decide he's had enough of the soap opera and send 2000 MVP Jeff Kent, a prospective free agent, somewhere to see what that would do for the air on the bench and in the clubhouse, not to mention the defense up the middle. A year after breaking Babe Ruth's record for slugging percentage, Barry Bonds is on track to break Ted Williams' record for on-base percentage. He might pass Willie McCovey's record for intentional walks (45) before July is over and will almost certainly once again break the overall walk record if he stays healthy.
4. Rockies
Since the 6-16 start that got Buddy Bell fired, the Rockies have gone 36-30. If they can build on that in the second half, Clint Hurdle would have to join Robinson, Tracy, Cox and Bob Boone in the manager of the year picture. The Rockies will take a look at left fielder Jack Cust, right-hander Aaron Cook and a handful of other prospects in the second half. GM Dan O'Dowd is busy trying to undo the moves he made two winters ago. There's a chance he might get Pittsburgh to take Denny Neagle, who has fallen out of the rotation, for catcher Jason Kendall in an exchange of bad contracts. If Mike Hampton shows any consistency at all, he might be able to move him to Texas for Rusty Greer and other contracts the Rangers would like to unload, possibly including Juan Gonzalez. Todd Zeile and Todd Jones should have trade value. O'Dowd is also looking to move Benny Agbayani, Todd Hollandsworth, Rick White, Terry Shumpert and Greg Norton.
5. Padres
There was no more electrifying pitching performance in the first half of the season than 20-year-old Oliver Perez's 13-strikeout performance at Colorado last Sunday. Perez's development gives San Diego fans reason to watch in a second half that will be devoted to the education of young players. It's important to get Sean Burroughs back on track. The Padres will also look at a group of pitchers that includes Jake Peavy, Dennis Tankersley and Eric Cyr. GM Kevin Towers is shopping a group of veterans, including the Opening Day battery of Kevin Jarvis and Wiki Gonzalez. He'd give away Ray Lankford and the disappointing Bubba Trammell.
Phil Rogers is the national baseball writer for the Chicago Tribune, which has a web site at www.chicagosports.com.
