Chasing the Pennant

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Tuesday, June 25
 
AL West race shaping up to be a dandy

By Phil Rogers
Special to ESPN.com

Thirty-five years after Boston, Detroit, Minnesota and the White Sox fought wildly for the American League pennant, we're teased with the promise of another fantastically frantic multi-team playoff race.

Check the standings in the American League West. Then consider the deep, balanced pitching staffs and dynamic lineups of the Mariners, Angels and Athletics. Are we getting ready for a dramatic second half on a scale that can stand alongside 1967?

The timing is certainly right.

Barry Zito
Barry Zito is 6-0 with a 1.88 ERA over his last six starts.

Just when baseball is about to succumb to the its self-destructive tendency of its owners and players, something comes along to save it. It happens every time, doesn't it?

With questions about steroids damaging the legitimacy of the home run records set in recent years, and labor strife never more than one headline away, this would be a great time for pure competition to grab the spotlight. Nowhere is that more likely than out west.

A year ago, there was a 41-game gap between 116-win Seattle and third-place Anaheim in the West. But only 2½ games separated the division's top three teams after Monday -- and that gap has steadily been getting narrower for the last month.

As long as Lou Piniella is in charge and Ichiro Suzuki has a valid visa, the Mariners will remain the favorites. But both Anaheim and Oakland have the firepower to take charge if Seattle slips. The potential is very much there for the best race in the era of expanded playoffs.

In the seven seasons that eight teams have advanced into October, the average gap from first to third has been 15 games. Only twice have the top three teams been separated by fewer than five games -- and one of those times was the AL East race in 2000, when the Yankees lost 15 of their last 18 games to delay their inevitable clinching.

While few remember it, the best multi-team division race came in the AL West in 1995. There wasn't a great team in that bunch, either, as Seattle and Anaheim wound up tied with a .542 winning percentage. Texas was four games back.

(We'll give bonus points here to anyone who knows the best playoff race under the eight-team playoff format. That answer appears at the bottom of the column).

In this year's West, the top three teams all have records that rank among the best eight in the majors. Any of the three would be leading the Central in either league. In other words, there's about to be a whole lot of shaking going on.

Here's what you need to know to keep up with the AL West:

1. Who's got the edge?
The standings don't lie. Seattle is a tick better than the other teams chasing it, and Anaheim probably has a better chance to overtake the Mariners than do the Athletics.

Seattle, which won with rarely seen balance in 2001, is again the complete package. The Mariners have the second-lowest ERA in the AL. They're third in runs scored and have allowed 17 unearned runs. Anaheim is fourth in ERA, second in runs scored and has allowed 23 unearned runs.

While Oakland is a threat to sweep any three-game series in which two games are started by Mark Mulder, Barry Zito and Tim Hudson, it hasn't shown much consistency. The A's are sixth in ERA, seventh in runs scored and have allowed 33 unearned runs, which is more than any other AL team except the White Sox (51), Tigers (40) and Blue Jays (37).

2. Is it the money, stupid?
The early signs suggest it is not the money. Unless Seattle makes like Bill Gates and spends what it takes to make the competition go away, this is a race that won't help Bud Selig's pitch to address the disparity in revenues and payroll.

With strong young arms and creative management, Oakland is once again finding ways to keep up with a Seattle team that spends two dollars for every one spent by the A's. The Mariners' Opening Day payroll of $80.3 million was the sixth largest in the majors; Oakland's $40 million payroll was the third smallest. Anaheim was in the middle at $61.7 million.

3. Who are the leading men?
While the great Ichiro isn't having quite as sensational of a season as in his MVP performance from 2001, you have to look to the Far East to see where the West really starts. Suzuki had at least one hit in 62 of Seattle's first 74 games; the Mariners' winning percentage when he has a hit is .629. John Olerud is quietly having another great season for Piniella.

Anaheim is being led by outfielders Garret "The Invisible'' Anderson and Darin Erstad, the latter of whom would have been traded to the White Sox last winter if not for intervention from the highest levels of Disney management. The only mystery is why Anderson doesn't get more attention for his quiet run-production.

With Jason Giambi in New York, the Athletics' MVP is often the man on the mound. Oakland's Big Three of Hudson, Zito and Mulder hasn't been charged with a loss since May 23, going a combined 14-0 in its last 18 starts. During that time, the A's improved from six games under .500 (20-26) and 10 games behind Seattle to 13 games over .500 (44-31) and only three out.

4. Who are the best players that only Rotisserie Leaguers know?
Anaheim's rise has as much to do with guys like Bengie Molina and David Eckstein as the play of marquee names like Tim Salmon and Erstad.

Molina, who is hitting .288, is catching so well that he's a consideration for both the All-Star team and possibly even the first Gold Glove by a catcher other than Pudge Rodriguez since 1991. He's thrown out 23 of 46 runners attempting to steal while compiling a catcher's ERA almost one run lower than backup Jorge Fabregas.

"Pudge is still at the top of the class as far as release, arm strength, accuracy and glove-to-glove times," said Angels manager Mike Scioscia, a former catcher. "Bengie is not far behind that. He might be a tick behind Pudge, but he's throwing at such a high level and so consistently he can be almost as effective as Pudge, and the stats are bearing that out."

Eckstein has similarly been solid at the plate and in the field at shortstop. He's been an igniter at the top of the order, compiling a .365 on-base percentage and stealing 13 bases, and has commited only five errors in 60 games. "He's by far more fundamentally sound than anybody I've ever played with," Erstad said.

Retread Ruben Sierra has improved on his Comeback Player of the Year performance from last season in Texas. With much of his bulk gone and his flexibility back, he's hitting .310 with nine homers and 48 RBI for Seattle. If he could maintain this pace, it would be his first 100-RBI season since 1993. He's also holding his own in left field, which isn't easy to do at Safeco Field.

Rookie right-hander Aaron Harang has strengthened the end of Oakland's rotation. He's 3-2 in five starts, compiling a 2.45 ERA. While Art Howe only recently met Harang, his performance is no fluke. He's 8-4 with a 1.76 ERA in 15 starts overall this season, including seven at Double-A and three at Triple-A.

5. Who can be difference-makers in the second half?
Remember Carlos Pena? The rookie first baseman hit four homers in the Athletics' first seven games and finished with seven in April. He was shipped to Triple-A Sacramento on May 22, mostly because his batting average had dropped to .218. He's shown the poise to handle tough situations and could come up large in August and September, with his flashy fielding as well as his sweet stroke.

Edgar Martinez, the best designated hitter ever, has been a non-factor for Seattle. He missed almost two months after having surgery to repair a torn hamstring, but is back in the lineup. He spent last week as a pinch hitter in National League parks and should soon be back doing damage with regular playing time. With Bret Boone, Mike Cameron and Mark McLemore failing to reprise their 2001 performances, Piniella can't wait to get Edgar back.

6. What are the teams' biggest concerns?
Joel Pineiro, who has won his last three starts, could be invaluable for the Mariners. But Piniella still must wonder about the back end of his rotation. Paul Abbott, an underrated contributor in recent seasons, is out for the year. James Baldwin has been inconsistent. Rookie Rafael Soriano has pitched well, but is winless in six starts.

History isn't on the side of the Angels, who have a history of late-season folds. Oakland's fielding is always a problem in the close games that are played in September and October.

7. Any trades coming?
Absolutely. Mariners GM Pat Gillick always seems to know the right way to tweak a contender. It's too early to know if he will go for pitching or another bat or two -- the bet here is he'll add a veteran starter -- but you know he'll play a role.

Oakland GM Billy Beane paved Oakland's road into the playoffs with the Jermaine Dye deal a year ago, and recently he's been talking to Pittsburgh about Brian Giles and Florida about Cliff Floyd. The A's won't take on a lot of salary, but Beane spends wisely.

Anaheim has been searching for ways to add arms to a bullpen that has performed far above expectations. GM Bill Stoneman is on the prowl for a closer type -- such as the Cubs' Tom Gordon or Antonio Alfonseca -- who he can add as another leg in the bridge leading to Troy Percival.

8. When are the key series?
This week's four-game Oakland-Seattle series at Safeco is an appetizer for a second half that will feature 30 head-to-head games between teams in the West triangle. The Mariners play their final nine games of the season against Anaheim and Oakland, which is just the way you'd set it up.

It's going to be a great September in all three cities if this race stays tight. Each of the three teams visits the others' park for a series in the last three weeks of the season.

Spotlight: Dodgers right fielder Shawn Green
Should you hear in the future that someone is "going Green,'' you should know it means that they are doing the unthinkable. Green has made himself the namesake for putting the pedal to the metal.

Shawn Green
Right fielder
Los Angeles Dodgers
Profile
2002 SEASON STATISTICS
GM AB HR RBI OBP Avg.
73 269 23 59 .390 .290

Through May 22, he had hit five home runs in 43 games. He's had 18 in his last 29 games.

"I love getting into a home-run groove, just like anybody else," Green said. "The difference is that I've gotten into a lot more intense home-run streaks and they're coming in larger bunches.''

Green has had 40-homer seasons in both leagues, but often is forgotten among listings of the top sluggers. Cubs manager Don Baylor says no one will ever accuse the 200-pound Green of taking steroids. He gets his power from proper mechanics and a perfectly timed weight transfer.

"That's one of the prettiest swings in the game," Dodgers manager Jim Tracy said. "It's the type of swing where, if he gets extended and his bat gets centered, the ballpark is not going to hold the ball. That's all there is to it."

New face: Padres left-hander Oliver Perez
Like Baltimore's Rodrigo Lopez, Perez has used a great winter in Mexico as a springboard to success. Both earned victories for Mexico in the Caribbean World Series and are now winning in the big leagues.

Perez, 20, has the Padres excited because of both his poise and his 94-mph fastball. He also could turn into a box-office draw, which never hurts.

All Perez has done in his first two outings is beat Seattle and the Yankees, holding the likes of Ichiro Suzuki and Derek Jeter to three runs in 11 2/3 innings. "It's always tough to face a pitcher you haven't seen, but he kept that fastball down," said the Mariners' Bret Boone. "And he's got a good arm. If you can keep that fastball down, you are going to be successful."

Perez, who doesn't turn 21 until Aug. 15, is the youngest active big-leaguer. He'd made only four outings after being promoted from Class A to Double-A when the Padres decided to see what he's got. So far he's showing a toughness that belies his baby face.

"Don't let his looks fool you," said reliever J.J. Trujillo, who pitched alongside Perez in the minors. "Oliver has nasty stuff. I think he could be a superstar."

Team to watch: St. Louis Cardinals
Following a day off Monday, Tony La Russa's team must begin the difficult -- and needless to say, painful -- assignment of carrying on without Darryl Kile. That's not going to be an easy assignment.

Kile was considered "the guts'' of a pitching staff that has already had to try 11 different starters. There are nothing but questions behind Matt Morris and Woody Williams.

"We might be able to find someone who pitches like Darryl, but we won't be able to find someone to take his place as a leader,'' reliever Luther Hackman said. "We know that already.''

La Russa is currently using rookie Jason Simontacchi as his No. 4 starter and the 0-5 Bud Smith as his No. 5 starter. Its farm system has been depleted by injuries, with top prospect Jimmy Journell among a group of starters who have undergone Tommy John surgery.

But as Hackman suggests, putting someone else in Kile's shoes could be the easy part. No team since the 1979 Yankees has had to deal with the trauma of a player dying in midseason. The Cardinals' immediate challenge is to get to the All-Star break in decent shape.

It will help that they play the next 13 games at Busch Stadium -- against Milwaukee, Cincinnati, San Diego and Los Angeles. After the break, they play only five of the first 23 at home.

(Answer to the bonus question: The best race in the wild-card era was fought beneath the surface in the NL in 1998. The Cubs, Giants and Mets spent the last two months within five games of each other in the wild-card race; the Cubs and Mets weren't more than one game apart after Aug. 7. The Cubs wound up winning a one-game playoff with the Giants after Colorado's Neifi Perez homered off Robb Nen on the final day of the season.)

Phil Rogers is the national baseball writer for the Chicago Tribune, which has a web site at www.chicagosports.com.







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