When the managerial carousel finally came wheezing to a halt Friday, when the ninth and 10th managerial change since the end of the season had been completed, the dugout landscape had changed considerably in both leagues.

In three months, when spring training gets underway, one third of teams will start seasons under new managers. For evidence of the amazing upheaval that has taken place, consider: Anaheim's Mike Scioscia will be the manager with the most seniority in his division; the other three teams in the AL West will sport new managers -- to them, at least.

	The Cubs hope Dusty Baker's managerial experience will help turn around their franchise.

Every one of the six divisions, in fact, will have at least one new manager. Some (the AL West, the AL Central, NL Central) will have more than one. This isn't some overnight development, either. Going back to the end of the 2001 season, only 11 managers remain on the job. Some clubs have changed more than once.

Owners -- and by extension, general managers -- want to win and think changing the manager is the quickest -- and generally speaking, the most inexpensive -- route.

But how successful is this path? Sure, Bob Brenly won a World Series in his first season with the Diamondbacks in 2001 and Scioscia in his third with the Angels this past season. But it helps to have a Randy Johnson-Curt Schilling one-two punch, as was the case for Brenly, or a talented veteran roster with a deep, emerging bullpen, as was the case for Scioscia.

We polled baseball experts -- scouts, general managers, personnel people -- to see how the new managers will fare.

"The more I'm in the game,'' said one general manager, "the more I realize managers are not as important as some people think they are and not as unimportant as some others think. The truth lies somewhere in the middle.''

Biggest short-term impact
Ken Macha (Oakland), Dusty Baker (Chicago Cubs)

Macha was the surprising choice of several.

"They don't really have much to improve on,'' said one executive of the A's, who've been to the playoffs three straight years, "but (Macha) will demand some accountability and clean up some things by instilling some discipline. That might be what they need to get them over the top.''

"I think he'll be more prepared,'' said another. "He's familiar with everyone there. It should be a pretty easy transition. They can use something different -- maybe Macha is it.''

	“	I think he'll be more prepared. He's familiar with everyone there. It should be a pretty easy transition. They can use something different -- maybe Macha is it. ”
		— A baseball executive on new A's manager Ken Macha

Baker, though, was the more conventional pick.

"Dusty brings instant credibility,'' said one NL executive. "He's won the last five or six years, and he's done it with different kinds of teams. They'll have to listen to him.''

Said another: "There's a lot of upside there. They've got some good young pitching. They've got holes, like everyone else. But I think he can create some excitement there. It may be the right guy for the right time.''

Few thought Baker would have any problems in dealing with Sammy Sosa.

"He's dealt with (Barry) Bonds and he's dealt with stars,'' said one GM, "so he knows what he's getting into with Sammy.''

Still another thought Baker might not be the cure-all some forecast.

"He's going to realize that he doesn't have Barry Bonds anymore,'' warned one personnel man, "and that's huge because Bonds is the best player in the game -- twice the player Sosa is. And when you get right down to it -- they're the Cubs. When you go there, you better be ready for anything. I think Dusty's going to think he can re-create the same atmosphere he had in San Francisco, and he's going to find that it's not that easy to take it from place to another.''

Biggest long-term impact
Eric Wedge (Cleveland)

"He came up through the system and he knows the players,'' said one GM. "It's a young club, there's not a lot of pressure to win right away and he may be the perfect guy. I think he can teach and have them ready to win pretty soon -- as long as the young pitching comes along.''

"He comes across as confident, border-line cocky,'' said another executive. "That might be good, if it's handled the right way. A young team needs confidence. And if you're going to be a first-time manager, it's best that you come from within the organization and already be familiar (with the personnel).''

Might not have the impact some anticipate
Lou Piniella (Tampa Bay)

"I know everyone is saying Lou means instead credibility,'' says one executive, "but they have a long way to go. He'll bring passion for the game, but I'm not sure how much that will mean.''

"Lou will be unbelievably impatient,'' predicted one scout, "not just with the young players, but also the front office when he realizes they're not going to spend for players. He'll bring some respectabilty, but in the end, they just don't have the players.''

Least enviable situation
Ned Yost (Milwaukee), Alan Trammell (Detroit)

"I'll say this for Trammell -- he's got the right attitude,'' says one GM. "He wants to be a teacher and make it fun. In a position like that, you look for small victories. He'll have to get used to that, because he doesn't have a lot of talent to work with.''

	“	He's got a huge task in front of him because he has no players in the majors and none in the (farm) system, either. I wouldn't want that job. ”
		— A baseball personnel man on new Brewers manager Ned Yost

"If he can transfer some of his enthusiasm to the players, that will be a big first step,'' agrees another. "But long-term, there's a lot of work to be done. A lot of work.''

Said another personnel man of Yost: "He's got a huge task in front of him because he has no players in the majors and none in the (farm) system, either. I wouldn't want that job.''

Who knows?
Art Howe (New York Mets)

Opinion was pretty evenly split here.

"Art's a good guy,'' says one executive. "I don't know anyone who doesn't like him. He won't get in their way, and if some of those players start to play hard because they're in their contract years, he could be stepping into a good situation.''

"I think a guy with no ego like Art will be good for that team,'' said another executive, "especially after the last guy (Bobby Valentine) they had. Sometimes, it's good to bring in a totally different personality and you couldn't find two guys more unalike.''

"He's in for a shock,'' predicts one front-office man of Howe. "He's never dealt with anything like the New York media and that can eat you up.''

"If they start going the wrong way,'' says one executive, "I don't know if Art is capable of bringing the reins in. And the talent there doesn't mesh -- it's more of a rotisserie team.''

Sean McAdam of the Providence Journal covers baseball for ESPN.com.