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| Thursday, July 18 Having prospects the key to deadline deals By Sean McAdam Special to ESPN.com |
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Like never before, prospects are the coin of the realm in baseball. As the trading deadline draws closer -- and the labor mess percolates -- teams are looking to move veterans (and salary). And what they want in return, almost without exception, are young players. "Ideally,'' said one general manager, "you want to find a player with a lot of upside with little or no major league service time.'' Even good young players with a year or two of experience can be off-putting, since it won't be long before they're eligible for salary arbitration, and then, free agency.
Coloring all the activity -- or lack thereof -- is the labor uncertainty. Teams are naturally reluctant to part with a top prospect or two, particularly if the player they get in return is eligible for free agency. "The last thing you want to do,'' said an official with one team, "is give up some of your young talent, and because of a strike, only get a few weeks out of a player.'' Still, watch for activity to pick up, at least somewhat, in the next two weeks. In anticipation, we canvased a half-dozen general manager, player personnel experts and scouts to assess who's best prepared to make deadline deals. Excluded from the list are organizations like Philadelphia and San Diego, who, though well-stocked, are unlikely to be dealing prospects given their place in the standings. Instead, the focus here is on the contenders.
The best They have at least two outfielders teams drool over -- Mike Restovich and Mike Cudduyer, and arguably the best prospect in the entire game in catcher Joe Mauer, though it's impossible to believe the Twins would move him at any cost. Others who are coveted include first baseman Justin Morneau and right-hander Juan Rincon. "They're pretty deep all over,'' said one scout admiringly. The Twins may have experienced eight losing seasons in a row from 1993-2000, but they at least capitalized on their draft positions. The real question is: will it do them any good? The Twins' payroll is at $40 million, and after granting contract extensions to Brad Radke, Eric Milton and others and taking on Rick Reed's salary last summer in a deal with the Mets, owner Carl Pohlad isn't in the mood to spend more on a team which was nearly contracted last winter. "I think Terry (Ryan, Twins GM) would really have to do a great selling job to get the owner to take any more money,'' said one baseball source. But payroll issues aside, the Twins have plenty of talent to offer.
The next level "They've really come a long way,'' said one player development person. "Their two best guys (Ryan Anderson and Gil Meche) are out and they've lost a lot of guys to the Rule V draft (Jeff Farnsworth, Jorge Sosa), but they have great depth.'' "They have athletes and pitching depth,'' added another observer. "They're much better this year than last,'' said a scout. "They've made a lot of progress in the last year or so. They've got some pitching at Double-A and some good middle infielders.'' Some of the best young pitchers, including Rafael Soriano, are already in Seattle.
General manager John Schuerholz told another GM this week that he didn't think the Braves would make a deal before the deadline. But if Schuerholz changes his mind, he'll have plenty to offer. "They've got a ton of pitching,'' said one envious personnel man. "We rate prospects on a scale and 50 is a good grade. Well, they have more pitchers at 50 and above than anyone else.'' That doesn't include young pitchers like Tim Spooneybarger, who's in the big leagues, or infielder Marcus Giles, who's taken a step backward this year. Also, infield wunderkind Wilson Betemit, who must be considered completely untouchable. Righty Adam Wainwright looks to have the biggest upside among pitchers. Another talent evaluator labeled the Braves' talent "as pretty average,'' but that opinion seems to be in the minority.
Anaheim "They've had a good year,'' said one development person. "I'm not crazy about their position players except for (first baseman Casey) Kotchman. But they've got some pitching.'' At the upper levels of the system sit right-handers John Lackey, Chris Bootchek and Francisco Rodriguez. Down further are third baseman Dallas MacPherson and Class A lefty Jake Woods. "Then again,'' cautions another executive, "(Angels GM Bill) Stoneman never trades pitching, so I'm not sure they're going to do much.''
Bottom of the barrel "Brutal -- just nothing there,'' concluded one evaluator. There are a few pitchers in the lower minors, and Double-A starter Seung Song has some upside. But there's almost no prospects at Triple-A beyond lefty Casey Fossum, whom the Sox are understandably reluctant to deal.
St. Louis "They don't have a single prospect ranked in our Top 50,'' said one GM. "Not one.'' That's bad news for a team hoping to find someone to fill the void left by the death of Darryl Kile. Sean McAdam of the Providence Journal covers baseball for ESPN.com. |
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