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Thursday, July 11
 
These eight questions could shape the AL race

By Sean McAdam
Special to ESPN.com

There's a ring of familiarty to the American League at the halfway point: The Yankees are in first place, ahead of the Red Sox; the Mariners are tied for the league lead in victories; and the Oakland A's have rebounded from a poor start.

Is this the 2002 season or baseball's version of Same Time, Next Year?

And yet, there are some subtle differences to this season: The Minnesota Twins have shown signs that they won't fade in July and August, as they did a year ago; for the first time since 1993, it seems the Cleveland Indians won't be a factor in the playoff race; the Anaheim Angels, for a change, might.

There's plenty of baseball ahead, and plenty of uncertainty, too. To begin with, labor pains threaten to short-circuit the races. Even if there's no work stoppage, the threat of is likely to have an impact on the number of deadline deals.

Eight questions, then, as the AL begins it second half.

1) Do the Yankees have anything else up their sleeves?

Mondesi
Mondesi

Weaver
Weaver

That will likely depend on what everyone else does -- or tries to do.

When it comes to the Yankees and midseason moves, there are some common themes: a) They're usually pro-active and set the tone by dealing first; b) they're capable of anticipating moves by rival clubs.

The Yanks have already struck first by landing Raul Mondesi and Jeff Weaver. Each was obtained with almost a month to go before the July 31 trade deadline. In the past, the Yankees have landed players like Denny Neagle and David Justice before others were through examining what was available.

One of GM Brian Cashman's master strokes was his defensive play to keep Randy Johnson away from the Cleveland Indians in 1998. If Cashman senses that the Mariners or Red Sox are about to make a move which could impact October, he'll be ready to respond accordingly.

The Yankees aren't shy, and they're indifferent to the animosity that greets their every (expensive) acquisition. Plus, as the owner is no doubt reminding them on an almost daily basis, they haven't won a championship in 21 months.

2) Can Pedro Martinez hold up?

Pedro Martinez
Starting Pitcher
Boston Red Sox
Profile
2002 SEASON STATISTICS
GM W L Sv K ERA
18 11 2 0 141 2.72

One of the little-noticed aspects to the Red Sox's largely successful first half was that their fragile ace didn't miss a single start. He may have been only their second-best starter behind Derek Lowe, but the Sox fully realize that Martinez remains their most valuable part.

The emergence of Lowe gives the Red Sox a 1-2 punch they've lacked since Martinez came to Boston in 1998. But the discovery of a partial tear in his rotator cuff last summer put the pitcher and his club on notice that at any given time, his next pitch could be his last -- at least for a long time.

Twice in his last three starts before the break, Martinez tossed shutout ball over eight innings. That's significant, if for no other reason than the timing of the performances. Historically, Martinez has begun to wear down around the All-Star break. But his winter workout program appears to have succeeded in building up his shoulder, and the team's careful use and deployment is also paying dividends.

3) Will the Twins add payroll again?

The not-ready-for-contraction players are threatening to run away from the pack in what is admittedly baseball's poorest division. As the second-half begins, the Twins' nearest competitors are 7½ games back and four games under the break-even mark.

At the start of the season, it was thought the the Twins could benefit from adding another hitter. But that was before Torii Hunter emerged from the first half in third place in total bases among all AL hitters, and before the Twins' pitching sagged.

They could use another starter, particularly another lefty. But will owner Carl Pohlad, still dreaming of a potential buyout windfall, spring for Chuck Finley or Kenny Rogers?

Barring an unforseen collapse, the Twins seem destined for the postseason for the first time since 1991, their last championship season. But as presently constituted, they're not capable of knocking off the Mariners or Yankees in a first-round matchup. Question is, does that matter to Pohlad?

4) Do the Mariners need another starter?

The A's have their Big Three (Tim Hudson, Barry Zito, Mark Mulder). The Yankees have theirs (Roger Clemens, Mike Mussina, Andy Pettitte). But the Mariners seem one frontline pitcher shy after Freddy Garcia and Jamie Moyer.

Aaron Sele averaged 16 wins in his two seasons with the Mariners but proved ineffective in the postseason. The Mariners can probably hold on without adding anyone to their rotation, but could they beat either Oakland or New York in a head-to-head series matchup?

This club would have been fascinating had it added either Bartolo Colon or Weaver. Instead, the M's may have to hope that Joel Pineiro, who came into the season with all of 12 major league starts to his credit, can continue to mature and show that experience can be overrated.

5) Can manager Mike Scioscia make the Angels winners?

The Disney-owned Angels never seem to have a happy ending. In 40 years, they've never won a pennant, much less a World Series, and their tough division -- and a September schedule full of games with Seattle, Oakland -- won't make it easy to change history this time.

But Scioscia gets high marks for his job in the dugout. The Angels love playing for him, he's expert in handling his pitching staff (with plenty of help from Bud Black) and there's a feeling that maybe, just maybe, September could be meaningful for the Angels this fall.

They could use another experienced starter, they need better second-halves from veterans like Tim Salmon and Darin Erstad, and first base could use an upgrade. But in a close race, Scioscia might make a difference.

6) What can the A's do to avoid another dead-end first-round playoff meeting with the Yankees?

At this point, after another stumble out of the starting blocks, the A's would no doubt be ecstatic to get another invite to the postseason, regardless of the opponent.

Newly acquired Ted Lilly gives them a third tough lefty, no small factor in a division full of John Olerud, Erstad, Ichiro, Rafael Palmeiro, et al.

The starting depth is improved, Scott Hatteberg has been a find at first base and the outfield is finally healthy. But unlike last year, when the A's didn't have anyone else in the division to worry about as they made their second-half charge, the presence of the Angels complicates matters.

7) Which non-contender can make the most progress in the second-half?

The Royals have some young pitching which could benefit from the innings as they rebuild, and the Orioles continue to show strides led by their young arms.

But the Toronto Blue Jays are the pick here. Already, the all-rookie left side of the infield combo of Felipe Lopez and Eric Hinske is formidable, and the departure of Mondesi opens up additional playing time in the outfield.

Now, if GM J.P. Ricciardi can move Shannon Stewart or Carlos Delgado, the Blue Jays could get a real head start on 2003.

8) Who will be the best AL player dealt before July 31?

Rodriguez
Rodriguez

Thome
Thome

Weaver and Colon have already changed uniforms, so there's not likely to be another starting pitcher of that caliber moved.

Among position players, the Indians' Jim Thome is a possibility. Thome continues to maintain that he doesn't want to leave Cleveland, but he's let it be known to some that he would OK a deal to a team with a chance to win it all, like Boston or Atlanta.

If not Thome, then how about Pudge Rodriguez? He, too, can be a free agent and owner Tom Hicks' newly found fiscal discipline may make it impossible for the best player in Rangers history to remain beyond this fall. A deal which lands the Rangers a couple of prime pitching prospects could put Texas back on the road to respectability ahead of schedule.

Sean McAdam of the Providence Journal covers baseball for ESPN.com.





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