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John Sickels

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Friday, February 21
Updated: March 13, 1:35 PM ET
 
Don't expect to see Mauer reach majors in 2003

By John Sickels
Special to ESPN.com

Hello, everyone. The Hot Stove Heaters are done, so it's time to dip into the Down on the Farm mailbag once again. It's been a busy winter here at the Sickels Residence, as I prepare the 2003 Baseball Prospect Book for publication. I'm sorry it's taking so long. Doing it by myself is rather overwhelming, despite the valuable assistance of my wife. It should go to the printer in a few days. For those who've ordered it, I promise it will be worth the wait.

Today we will answer some questions that people have asked over the last few weeks in relation to the minor league reports that accompanied the Hot Stove Heaters. I want to answer as many questions as possible, so we'll be brief and to the point due to space limitations. Today we'll answer American League questions.

John D. asks: In 2001 the Minnesota Twins chose Joe Mauer as their first-round draft pick. A couple years ago, I was playing against Joe in high school baseball and football. So, to get to my question, do you think Joe will see any playing time at all with the Twins this season?

No. Mauer is probably the best long-term catching prospect in the game, with Jeff Mathis of the Angels on his heels. But he's two years away from being ready to help, and with A.J. Pierzynski around, the Twins don't need to rush him.

In the short run, the best catching prospect is Victor Martinez of Cleveland, who is ready for the majors now with the bat but may not earn a job this spring if his defense disappoints. Even if he doesn't open '03 with the Indians, he'll be in the majors before Mauer or Mathis.

Greg L. asks: I just read your rundown on the '03 White Sox and I come away really disappointed. Why so pessimistic?

Of all the things I wrote this winter, my Chicago White Sox Hot Stove Heater (the major league section) was the most controversial. I apparently touched a raw nerve among White Sox fans, as I received numerous e-mails taking me to task for being too harsh on the Sox.

To be honest, I didn't really understand why everyone was so upset. My main point was that the Sox didn't necessarily buy themselves a pennant with Bartolo Colon. He's a definite upgrade over Todd Ritchie, no question, but there are no guarantees about his performance for '03, and a few warning signs.

I also thought the article was clear that the Sox could very well win the division, but they'll need a few things to break their way. The same could be said about most teams. Perhaps I wasn't clear enough about that, but I wasn't trying to unfairly criticize the Sox. I was attempting a balanced assessment of their strengths and weaknesses.

One thing that a lot of people mentioned was the whole Billy Koch vs. Keith Foulke comparison. I thought it was well-reasoned, but everyone (literally everyone) who sent me an e-mail about it disagreed. I promise to review Koch vs. Foulke at the end of the season, whichever way it goes.

Dennis J: writes: There was a player drafted by the White Sox out of Fort Mill high school in South Carolina. His name is Charlie Lisk and he was in rookie ball last year. Any word on him?

Lisk was drafted in the 24th round in 2001. Scouts are very intrigued with his potential power, and he is a fine defensive catcher. But I didn't mention him in my report because he hit just .202 in rookie ball, with three walks and 32 strikeouts in 104 at-bats. He has time to turn things around, but there's a lot of work to do refining his swing.

A Tigers Fan writes: I am surprised that you left out Kenny Baugh even though he was hurt last year. I project him to be starting in Detroit by the end of this year.

I should have mentioned him, but he missed all of '02 following shoulder surgery, likely a direct result of the abuse he took while pitching for Rice. It is dangerous to make predictions about shoulder injuries. They take longer to heal and rehab from than elbow injuries, and the success rate in recent years is lower. Baugh is a great prospect, if he comes back from surgery successfully, and that is far from a sure thing at this point. We'll monitor his progress closely this spring and summer, but I wouldn't get too excited just yet.

Craig M. asks: Could you tell me a little about Jason Pridie of the Devil Rays? In rookie ball, he seems to have hit for both power and average. Do you expect him to make the transition fairly easy to the major league club?

Pridie was a second-round pick in '02 out of high school in Arizona. Compared to Johnny Damon by many scouts, he hit .368 with seven homers and 13 steals in rookie ball. His strike zone judgment is shaky, but so far it hasn't hurt him. It's way too early to project when he'll reach Tampa Bay; he hasn't proven himself in full-season ball yet. As rookie-level players go, I like him a lot. Frankly I think he's going to rip up A-ball this year, and won't face a serious challenge to his skills until he faces Double-A pitching, probably in 2004.

Despite his lack of plate discipline, he's one of my favorite lower level players.

John writes: I just got done reading your analysis of the Baltimore minor league system, but saw no mention of Matt Riley. Just a couple of years ago, I remember seeing him referred to as the AL's Rick Ankiel (back when Ankiel was thought to have a bright future), but he seems to have fallen off the map.

Riley earned his way off the prospect charts, thanks to injury problems as well as "less than professional" behavior at times. His arm was OK last year and he made 22 starts for Double-A Bowie, but was dreadful, posting a 6.34 ERA and allowing 136 hits in 109 innings. He did strike out 105, but his command is shot and he doesn't throw quite as hard as he used to. He could rebound, but it is much less than an even bet.

Todd S. asks: I was perusing your overview of the Angels farm system and something struck me. There was no mention of Joe Torres. I considered him one of their best prospects and possibly thought he was ahead of Chris Bootcheck. Why the oversight? Or is he injured or something else of significance that passed by my radar?

Joe Torres was listed in the "other names" section of the Angels report. I didn't do a full write-up on him for space reasons. He made 25 starts for Class A Cedar Rapids, going 11-8 with a 3.52 ERA. But he struck out just 87 in 133 innings, a poor ratio, and his velocity is down. He threw 92-94 mph in high school, but was down in the 87-89 range last year. He also had problems commanding his curveball. He held his own despite these difficulties, so there is no reason to give up on him at this point, but I felt it moved him down the Angels prospect list several notches. 2003 is a critical season for him.

John Sickels is the author of the 2002 Minor League Scouting Notebook, and is now working on the 2003 Baseball Prospect Book. His biography of Bob Feller will be published next spring. He lives in Lawrence, Kansas, with his wife, son, and two cats. You can send John questions or comments at JASickels@aol.com, or you can visit his homepage at JohnSickels.com.





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