A foul smell has hung over this entire baseball season, not unlike the aroma clinging to a player who hasn't changed his "lucky'' underwear since starting a 30-game hitting streak.

That odor, of course, has been the threat of a strike. Baseball's past eight labor disputes between ownership and players led to work stoppages and everyone fears a ninth is as automatic this summer as John Smoltz coming in from the bullpen. They also fear that it will be like the 1994 strike that ended the season, ruined everyone's summer, cancelled the World Series, threatened us with replacement players and extended into the 1995 season. And the fans swear that if there is a strike they won't ever come back to the ballpark, no matter how many Ichiro bobbleheads teams give away.

But I'm not worried. There isn't going to be a strike this year.

Why not? For one thing, the animosity between the two sides isn't nearly as extreme as it was in 1994. Donald Fehr hasn't called Bud Selig a lying SOB and Bud hasn't called Fehr a greedy bastard for at least a couple days now.

For another, there isn't the same sense of inevitably as eight years ago. I remember someone in uniform telling me as early as May of that year that the season would end in mid-August. I don't get that same sense of utter hopelessness this summer. The fact that the players haven't set a strike date yet is a positive sign.

Further, both sides understand how damaging a strike would be, and how little patience the country has for such a thing at this time.

Most importantly of all, the two sides just aren't that far apart. They're not arguing over the elimination of salary arbitration or the number of players on a roster or a fundamental change in free agency. They're arguing primarily over how much revenue the owners can share among themselves, as well as a luxury tax. Those simply aren't issues worth going to war over for either side. After all, the players agreed to a luxury tax the last time and salaries still rose faster than Chan Ho Park's ERA.

Even ownership negotiator Rob Manfred expressed optimism after Thursday's meeting with the union. Gene Orza wasn't quite so optimistic, but at least he didn't equate Manfred with an Al-Qaeda terrorist, which is a positive sign.

A fan recently wrote in and asked me to explain why there might be a strike and I began to do so, outlining the union's view and management's side when it suddenly occurred to me that I couldn't think of a rational explanation. The simple fact is there is no logical, sensible or defensible reason for the two sides not to reach an agreement peacefully and without an interruption to the season.

True, we're talking about the owners and the players. But even so, the longer this season goes on, the more convinced I become that there won't be a strike.

Then again, I picked the Cubs to win the National League Central.

Jim Caple is a senior writer for ESPN.com. He can be reached at cuffscaple@hotmail.com