Tom Candiotti

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Tuesday, June 4
 
Guardado not your typical fireballing closer

By Tom Candiotti
Special to ESPN.com

Editor's Note: ESPN analyst Tom Candiotti writes a weekly scouting report. Here is the former knuckleballer's book on Minnesota Twins closer Eddie Guardado as he prepares to face the AL Central rival Cleveland Indians in a three-game series beginning Tuesday at the Metrodome.

Strengths
Sometimes it takes players a little while to mature into a major-league player. Others seem to fulfill their potential almost immediately.

Eddie Guardado
Eddie Guardado is tied for the American League lead with 17 saves.

Organizational scouts like to forecast prospects to their talent level far before a player ever reaches the major leagues. It can be a difficult job for these talent evaluators to accurately predict where a player's talent will take him. Some players seem to defy all these so-called experts because they can't measure a player's heart, his will to succeed, his drive, or his determination. That is why we love an underdog. That is why someone like Eddie Guardado puts a smile on our face. He has defied the experts.

He has neither the size of a pitcher with a power arm nor the "plus" arm labeled by scouts as "a back of the bullpen arm." What he does have is savvy. He knows how to locate the ball as well as any pitcher. He has a good blend of breaking stuff, but his best quality is that he just pitches. He changes speeds, he can make the ball move both ways, he changes eye levels very well, and he throws all his pitches for strikes. More than anything he has been put into a role where he seems to flourish.

The main reason Guardado has been successful this year is because he's been extremely aggressive in the strike zone. He is in an attack mode, just pounding the strike zone. Rarely is he falling behind hitters, thus keeping himself in pitching counts. His fastball has set the stage for his slider and change. The location has been tremendous. I watched him close out a game in about 12 pitches a few weeks back. He never missed the catcher's target. His slider has been really crisp, and he has located it down consistently. Guardado is not trying to outstuff hitters, but rather he is just making pitches.

Weaknesses
The only time I see Guardado struggle is when he falls behind in the count. As long as Guardado stays in pitcher's counts, he will keep the hitters guessing location and pitch selection. And any time you keep the hitters guessing, you will succeed as a pitcher.

Best approach
I think Guardado will give the Indians a lot of trouble. He should be able to control left-handed hitters Jim Thome, Russell Branyan, and Matt Lawton very well.

His biggest problem spot will be Ellis Burks. Burks is a very disciplined hitter who will try and guess location with Guardado. He could do some damage if he guesses correctly, but for the most part Guardado has the stuff to handle the Indians hitters, who are predominantly free swingers. He will throw many first-pitch strikes and then locate and throw his slider and off-speed pitches.

Overall
Today there are not too many other left-handed closers, mainly because clubs are always searching for situational lefties to match up late in the game. Since lefties are scarcer than righties, it only makes sense that there are more potential righty closers. If a lefty prospect has great stuff, he is made into a starter because a quality lefty starter is a prized possession for a club today. The A's having Mark Mulder and Barry Zito set themselves apart from other clubs' rotations. Either one could close, but they are more valuable as starters.

ESPN baseball analyst Tom Candiotti won 151 games pitching in 16 major-league seasons.







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