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Thursday, July 18
Updated: July 19, 11:14 AM ET
 
Dodgers' rotation must handle workload

By Dave Campbell
Special to ESPN.com

Consider yourself a baseball genius if ...

You know Paul Byrd would have 12 wins by mid-July and be a Cy Young candidate. ... That Derek Lowe would be leading the American League in wins and ERA. ... That Eddie Guardado and Eric Gagne would be leading or tied for their league lead in saves. ... That Minnesota would have a 10-game lead with the perceived strength of their team -- their starting rotation -- suffering through injuries and not pitching well. ... That David Eckstein would be leading the majors in grand slams. ... That Junior Spivey would be leading the Diamondbacks in batting average, slugging percentage, on-base percentage and extra-base hits. ... That Craig Counsell would be Arizona's first-half MVP, as everyone on the teams says. ... That Vicente Padilla would be the Phillies' most effective starter. ... That the pitching-rich St. Louis Cardinals would be relying on a guy named Jason Simontacchi as their staff saver.

With all the negativity in the sport today, from steroids to the labor issue to the All-Star Game, let's remember the feel-good stories of the year. There have been plenty of them.

The week that was
Not Dodging out of the gate
The Dodgers have stumbled to a 1-6 start after the All-Stark break after losing 7-0 to the Padres on Wednesday night. The big concern with the Dodgers is a starting rotation that was terrific in the first half, but has plenty of question marks:

  • Hideo Nomo. He was 8-4, 3.83 in the first half with the Red Sox last year, but 5-6, 5.34 in the second half.

  • Andy Ashby has always been better in April through July than August and September. Over the last five years, he has a 3.63 ERA in the first half, 4.47 in the second.

  • Odalis Perez, who has allowed five runs or more in three of his past four starts, is way beyond any number of innings he's ever thrown in the majors.

  • Kazuhisa Ishii is used to a 140-game season in Japan, where he threw more than 183 innings just once.

    Jim Tracy should also be concerned about the bullpen. He thought Guillermo Mota, who throws 97-98 mph, would be his new setup guy and he moved him ahead of Paul Quantrill and Giovanni Carrera. But Mota allowed four runs in 2/3 of inning on Tuesday. And Jesse Orosco, at 45, isn't quite the reliever he used to be.

    The Dodgers still have 13 games left against the Giants and six against the Diamondbacks. They've talked about finding a third baseman since Adrian Beltre hasn't played well, but I think they need to worry about their pitching.

    Mariano Rivera's struggles
    Can you believe Joe Torre brought him back in?

    Seriously, despite blowing leads on Friday and Sunday (when Cleveland's Bill Selby capped a six-run inning with a grand slam), Yankee fans shouldn't be worried about Rivera. The only thing I've noticed is that he hasn't located his cutter quite as consistently. With the way he approaches his job, nothing shakes his confidence and his attitude is, "You got me Sunday, but you're not getting me tonight." If it's the ninth inning of Game 7 of the World Series, he'd still be my pick to be out there, despite how great John Smoltz or Eric Gagne or Eddie Guardado are pitching.

    Looking
    Bullpen issues
    It will be real interesting watching how some closers and relievers do in the second half and how they'll impact the pennant races. Gagne still has to prove he can be dominant over a full season and even Smoltz, though he's two years off the elbow surgery, has to show he can handle the reliever workload for an entire season. Like Smoltz, Gagne had "Tommy John" surgery (when he was in the minors). Billy Koch is another closer who once had the surgery; just a another reminder of today's medical miracles.

    The Twins are interesting. Their starting rotation was supposed to be a strength, and while Eric Milton looks like he has the turned the corner and started to pitch better, Brad Radke and Joe Mays are still on the disabled list. The bullpen was supposed to be a question mark, but has easily been their strength. Mike Jackson (2-2, 2.52), in his second year off shoulder surgery, has been a superb veteran presence. LaTroy Hawkins (4-0, 1.43), last year's closer, moved into a setup role and has excelled alongside J.C. Romero (5-1, 2.08). Who are these guys? What's amazing is they've done this despite having three relievers on the DL (Bob Wells, Jack Cressend, Matt Kinney).

    The Giants also have bullpen issues. They need a left-hander to replace Jason Christiansen. Aaron Fultz and Chad Zerbe are journeyman who are OK for the sixth inning, but do you want them in the eighth? In the past, they could rely on Felix Rodriguez, who was the best setup guy in baseball the past two years. Even though he's right-handed, F-Rod dominated lefties, holding them to a .158 average in 2000-01. But this year, lefties are hitting .292 off him and he's lost his setup role to Tim Worrell. Rodriguez's velocity is still there, so his ineffectiveness is one of those mysteries.

    Washburn keeps rolling
    Jarrod Washburn has certainly been a key for the Angels with his 11-game winning streak. Some of their other starters are beginning to falter and they're another team with obvious bullpen issues with Troy Percival and Dennis Cook going to the disabled list and Al Levine suffering from shoulder tendinitis. Of their top four relievers, only Ben Weber is healthy. As for Washburn, he's kind of funny in that he loves to throw his fastball even though it's not overpowering. But it has late movement and he locates it well. The Angels have a tough schedule the rest of way, as they still have 13 games left against the Yankees and Red Sox, whereas Seattle and Oakland only have six games left against those two teams.

    If I were the skipper
    The situation
    Seattle third baseman Jeff Cirillo continues to struggle, hitting .234 with a .292 on-base percentage. He's particularly struggled against right-handed pitchers, hitting .205. Should Lou Piniella consider giving Mark McLemore or Desi Relaford the full-time job at third base, leaving left field to Ruben Sierra?

    Campbell's call
    Right now, you have to go with the track record. Cirillo is a .300 career hitter and a good defensive player. It took Mo Vaughn half a year to get going, so I don't think you hit the panic button just yet. If Cirillo continues to struggle, then you can play one of those guys; that's the value in a McLemore or Relaford -- they can play several positions and not hurt you defensively. But, aside from Cirillo, the key for Seattle is getting Bret Boone and Mike Cameron going offensively

    Ballpark focus: Qualcomm Stadium, San Diego
    A lot of the players who have played for San Diego complain about the lights there. Last year, all of the Padres' home/road splits, such as home runs and batting average, tilted in favor of the road. This year, the Padres are hitting slightly better on the road (.243 average, .381 slugging) than at home (.240, .338). However, San Diego's pitching has been much better at home, so the Padres are 24-24 there but 14-32 on the road.

    With Arizona visting San Diego this weekend, keep an eye on how Randy Johnson does. He's still a great pitcher, but he hasn't been putting up those phenomenal strikeout totals. I think he's been fighting back issues since the beginning of May, which is one reason he didn't go to the All-Star Game. He's a warrior and goes to the post every time out, but he's not lighting it up like early in the season (just one double-digit strikeout game in his last five starts). Considering the Padres are second-to-last in the NL in runs scored and the difficult hitting conditions at Qualcomm, it will be interesting to see if Randy can put up one of those 13-, 14- or 15-strikeout gems. This could be a good test to see how healthy his back is.

    Dave Campbell, who was an infielder for eight seasons in the major leagues (1967-74), is an analyst for Baseball Tonight and ESPN Radio. All statistics are through Wednesday's games.






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