Guessing who will and won't make the All-Star team is hardly an exact science. Different people have different criteria, and even those who agree on how to choose an All-Star often disagree as to who the most worthy players are.

The rule that every team needs a representative throws a twist into the process, especially when it comes to the last four or five roster spots. We often hear about the qualified players on good teams who are left at home so that a bad team can have its sole All-Star. Less a story, but no less a factor, is that often the best player on a bad team is left behind because the All-Star manager needs to build a roster capable of playing the game.

The American League is very top-heavy right now, with a number of teams from whom one All-Star is a stretch, so playing the end-of-roster game is even more complicated than usual. With the Midsummer Classic just a little over two weeks away, let's take a look around the AL and try and figure out who the winners and losers might be in the race to Milwaukee. Remember, I'm predicting who will, not judging who should.

Anaheim Angels
Candidates: Garret Anderson, Tim Salmon, Troy Percival, Ramon Ortiz, Jarrod Washburn

As well as they've played, the Angels really only have five All-Star candidates, and Percival isn't going to make the team. While Salmon's selection would remove from his resume the line, "Best Player to Never Make an All-Star Team," he's in danger of getting squeezed out by the need to invite a Devil Ray. Ortiz and Washburn have both pitched well, but lose out in a numbers game. The Angels get a raw deal this year.

Prediction: Anderson

Baltimore Orioles
Candidates: Tony Batista, Rodrigo Lopez

In a surprise, the Orioles' lone All-Star will be a converted shortstop now playing third base. Some things never change. Well, it's not that set in stone, actually. The AL is deep in third basemen, and while Batista has been the best Oriole to date, Rodrigo Lopez is also deserving of a spot.

Consider Batista and Lopez one-half of an All-Star combination, with Eric Hinske and Roy Halladay of the Blue Jays the other. It's probable that only two of these four players will be All-Stars, and unlikely that either the Jays or the O's will have more than one representative.

Prediction: Batista

Boston Red Sox
Candidates: Manny Ramirez, Johnny Damon, Shea Hillenbrand, Nomar Garciaparra, Derek Lowe, Ugueth Urbina, Pedro Martinez

Ramirez and Hillenbrand look like they'll be voted on to the team, although Ramirez may skip the game due to injury. Lowe is a safe bet, and Martinez now looks like one as well, at 8-2 with an ERA below 3.00. Damon is hitting .331 and appears on a variety of leaderboards. With his glovework such an important part of the Red Sox's season, he belongs. Urbina leads the league in saves, although there are at least two closers more deserving, so he's no lock.

The stage is set for another huge All-Star controversy at shortstop, where Yankees manager Joe Torre has to choose from among three completely qualified backups to Alex Rodriguez:

Player	AB	AVG	OBP	SLG	EqA	RARP
Garciaparra	265	.321	.363	.528	.310	26.3
Jeter	292	.301	.375	.432	.300	25.7
Vizquel	263	.308	.386	.498	.307	26.5

(EqA -- Equivalent Average; RARP -- Runs Above Replacement Position)

If Torre doesn't take Garciaparra, but does take Derek Jeter, it is possible that the entire state of Massachusetts will march to the Bronx and kill him. Honestly, though, there's virtually no way to discern among these three guys. They're all great players, all worthy of making the team.

Might Torre take four shortstops? Given the state of the AL's talent at second base and catcher, he might have room.

Prediction: Ramirez, Damon, Hillenbrand, Garciaparra, Lowe, and Martinez

Chicago White Sox
Candidates: Paul Konerko, Magglio Ordonez, Ray Durham, Mark Buehrle

Konerko is leading the league in RBI, which is usually good for an All-Star spot, even at the AL's deep first-base slot. Buehrle is a lock. Durham really isn't having an All-Star season, but the AL second basemen are an awful bunch outside of Alfonso Soriano. If Torre takes a backup, it would have to be Durham or the alien-free body of Bret Boone.

Ordonez is going to be part of the last-spot scramble, with a second Angels outfielder and an assortment of team-representative guys. It might be hard for the White Sox to get more than two All-Stars, which will hurt him.

Prediction: Konerko and Buehrle

Cleveland Indians
Candidates: Omar Vizquel, Jim Thome, Bartolo Colon

Walks don't mean a lot in getting to the All-Star Game, so Thome faces a tough road, battling Konerko, John Olerud, Mike Sweeney, and Carlos Delgado for a roster spot. Vizquel should go, because his defensive reputation will carry him past the AL East guys. Colon is a stealth Cy Young candidate if and when Derek Lowe hits a wall in the second half; he's really improved his command this season.

Prediction: Vizquel and Colon

Detroit Tigers
Candidates: Robert Fick, Randall Simon, Jeff Weaver, Juan Acevedo

There's really just one candidate here, and that's Weaver, who is 5-8 with a 3.36 ERA. With better bullpen and run support, he'd be 8-5 and this would be a really short section.

None of these other guys is a legitimate All-Star, just guys who might get picked if Torre wants to put Mike Thurman on the team or something. Rob Fick is the best candidate of the bunch, but a thousand miles behind a guy like Ordonez or Salmon or Jacque Jones. Randall Simon is the worst player in this article.

Prediction: Weaver

Kansas City Royals
Candidates: Mike Sweeney, Joe Randa, Paul Byrd

Sweeney has been the standard pick, and he's having another Mike Sweeney season: not as good as the best first basemen in the league, but close enough to make the team because he has lousy teammates and the better first basemen don't.

A couple of years ago, Randa's performance might have made him the backup, but this is the Age of Third Basemen, so his best hope is for Sweeney to pull a hamstring next week. Paul Byrd had a shot; now he has a 4.40 ERA.

Prediction: Sweeney.

Minnesota Twins
Candidates: A.J. Pierzynski, Jacque Jones, Torii Hunter, J.C. Romero, Eddie Guardado

Hunter has come down after his ridiculous start, so now he's just a legitimate All-Star-likely to be voted onto the team -- and not the best player in the league. Jones has comparable numbers, and could benefit from being on a better team than the other corner outfielders in the mix. Guardado will make the team, and if Torre can take Mike Stanton in 2001, he should take J.C. Romero, who has a 0.65 ERA in 41 2/3 innings this season. The numbers don't look good for him, though.

Pierzynski is an interesting case. A .332-hitting catcher is a pretty good All-Star candidate in any year. If Jorge Posada wins the voting, it's going to be difficult for Torre to take Ivan Rodriguez, who hasn't hit a home run yet and won't have played 40 games by the All-Star-Game.

Prediction: Pierzynski, Hunter, and Guardado.

New York Yankees
Candidates: Bernie Williams, Jason Giambi, Alfonso Soriano, Derek Jeter, Jorge Posada, Robin Ventura, Mariano Rivera, Steve Karsay, Roger Clemens, Mike Mussina, Marcus Thames, Dooley Womack, Bennie Bengough, and the pitcher from the "Bad News Bears" Yankees who got slapped by his dad

Giambi and Soriano will win the fan vote. Posada, Ventura, and Williams might make the team that way, but probably not (Williams' shot may hinge on Manny Ramirez's health). All would make good selections, although only Posada is safely in. Both Williams and Ventura play positions at which the AL is deep, and could find themselves caught in a roster crunch. The same goes for Jeter.

Torre has some history of favoring his own pitchers, which is why so many of them are listed here. Karsay's here because of The Stanton Precedent, although he's not as good a set-up man candidate as J.C. Romero. Rivera belongs, although it's unlikely that he would pitch in the game due to his groin injury. Clemens has been the Yankees' best starter; Mike Mussina has a 4.62 ERA, but could be 12-2 in two weeks. As guys like Barry Zito, Tim Hudson, and Freddy Garcia start pitching really well, Torre is going to be hard-pressed to make his guys happy.

Prediction: Giambi, Soriano, Jeter, Posada, Ventura and Mussina. Clemens and Rivera might be named, but won't pitch due to nagging injuries

Oakland Athletics
Candidates: Miguel Tejada, Eric Chavez, Barry Zito, Tim Hudson

Tejada gets caught in the shortstop crunch. If Salmon makes the team, Tejada probably inherits the "BPTNMAAST" title, and could hold it for a while. Chavez seems to have passed Troy Glaus for now, but the logjam at third base in this league will keep him home; thank Tony Batista for that, as well as Torre. Zito is a lock, and Hudson could pitch his way onto the team in the next couple of weeks.

Prediction: Zito.

Seattle Mariners
Candidates: Ichiro Suzuki, John Olerud, Carlos Guillen, Mike Cameron, Bret Boone, Kazuhiro Sasaki, Freddy Garcia, Joel Pineiro

Ichiro will be voted in, and Cameron might be. Garcia and Sasaki, who is making a run at Dennis Eckersley's 1990 performance, are locks. Guillen is in the wrong league, and unless Cameron makes a run in the voting (or is named to replace Ramirez) he will stay home. Olerud is on the bubble, and could lose out depending on how the last few roster spots go. If Magglio Ordonez is on the team, Paul Konerko probably isn't, and that helps Olerud. It's a bit of a mess.

Boone is here because Torre may decide to reward him for last year's performance, given the other choices for backup second baseman.

Joel Pineiro has a 2.96 ERA, and if he can lower that and pick up a couple of wins over the next few weeks, he'll have a great case.

Prediction: Ichiro, Sasaki, and Garcia

Tampa Bay Devil Rays
Candidates: Randy Winn, Joe Kennedy, Paul Wilson

I'm stubbornly calling Wilson a candidate, because he's pitched pretty well, but been killed by the Rays' bullpen. Realistically, this is Randy Winn's slot. He'll continue the tradition of the Devil Rays having the least-qualified All-Star at the game, and be the lightning rod for this year's "Why does every team need to be represented?" hullaballoo, sponsored by The United Friends of John Olerud.

Prediction: Winn

Texas Rangers
Candidates: Alex Rodriguez, Ivan Rodriguez, Rafael Palmiero, Kenny Rogers

Wouldn't it be funny if the Rangers had an All-Star pitcher? Kenny Rogers would make a perfectly fine All-Star, with a 3.48 ERA and a 7-4 record.

Ivan Rodriguez probably has to win the vote -- he slipped behind Jorge Posada in the last tally -- to make the team. It's hard to take a player, no matter how great, solely on reputation. There's very little precedent for doing so; if legacies get voted onto the team, it's one thing, but rarely will a manager take a long-time All-Star who has been injured or ineffective.

Prediction: Alex Rodriguez; Ivan Rodriguez only if elected.

Toronto Blue Jays
Candidates: Eric Hinske, Carlos Delgado, Roy Halladay

Defense doesn't usually matter much, but leading the league in errors is the kind of thing that gets people's attention. With Roy Halladay up to 8-3, 3.11, his spot seems assured, and there's little reason to expect more than one Blue Jay on the team. Carlos Delgado loses out this year.

Prediction: Halladay

In wrapping it all up, here are your American League All-Stars:

C: Posada, Pierzynski (or I. Rodriguez, if elected)
1B: Giambi, Konerko, Sweeney
2B: Soriano
SS: A. Rodriguez, Jeter, Garciaparra, Vizquel
3B: Hillenbrand, Ventura, Batista
OF: Ichiro, Ramirez, Hunter, Anderson, Damon, Winn
SP: Lowe, Martinez, Buehrle, Colon, Weaver, Mussina, Zito, Garcia, Halladay
RP: Guardado, Sasaki

The last cuts? J.C. Romero, Tim Salmon, Eric Chavez, and Bernie Williams.

You can check out more work from the team of writers of the Baseball Prospectus (tm) at their web site at baseballprospectus.com. Joe Sheehan can be reached at jsheehan@baseballprospectus.com.