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Friday, June 14
 
Who's Got the Whammy on the Rocket?

By Chris Kahrl, with Keith Woolner
Special to ESPN.com

Roger Clemens is supposed to pitch against the Mets on Saturday. America has already used up (or gotten tired of) Mike Tyson, so I guess nobody should be surprised that the campaign to inflate the Rocket into the nation's newest, most frightening bogeyman is in full swing. So with all eyes on the Rocket, it's times like these that make me ask, who's Buster Douglas, and where does Saturday's starter for the Mets, Shawn Estes, fit into all of this?

Roger Clemens
Starting Pitcher
New York Yankees
Profile
2002 SEASON STATISTICS
GM W-L IP H K ERA
14 8-2 93.1 82 107 3.57

To give my curiosity some context, I spent a good chunk of the '80s being entertained by the exploits of a number of pitchers who seemed to have the whammy on Roger Clemens. Dave Stewart's success against Clemens is already well known, and as an A's fan, was a source of some warm box score fuzzies. But living on Chicago's South Side, there were also moments when it seemed that certain White Sox pitchers had the whammy, and could beat the Rocket. When Jose DeLeon beat Clemens twice in consecutive starts in 1986 (the year Clemens went 24-4), it was probably the only thing Sox fans had to be happy about.

Some guys don't have the whammy, but they did seem to rise to the occasion when they were matched up against Clemens. Greg Hibbard never beat the Rocket in four tries, but in his first shot at him in 1989, he did shut out the Red Sox for eight innings, only to see marginal lefty Kenny Patterson (fated to be the throw-in of the ill-fated Sammy Sosa-George Bell exchange) untie a 0-0 game in the ninth. I'm still bitter about it, since those were my starving student days, and ticket stubs from a White Sox shutout that season were good for a free pizza in a promotion by a nationally recognized pizza chain to be named later.

By the sixth, those of us in attendance were all inspired by the significance of the moment, chanting "pizza ... pizzaaaaa!" as Hibbard would come down off of the mound at the end of each inning. Some of the witnesses may have eventually forgiven Kenny Patterson, but I'm the mean-spirited sort that still can't let it go.

So, inspired by thoughts of yesteryear as most of metropolitan New York plans a mass freak-out this Saturday, and thanks to the programming wizardry of Baseball Prospectus colleague Keith Woolner, let's take a look at who's drawn the most matchups with the big bad wolf, Roger Clemens. We should be able to see who's had the most reason to regret getting too much Rocket in their workloads (and denting their career records), as well as who seems to have some happy results.

Let's start off with the top 16 through 2001, the pitchers who have had to see the unhappy news that they drew the Rocket in that day's matchup (regular season only):

Pitcher         GS QS  W-L  IP   H  R ER BB K   ERA   RA
Jimmy Key       10  8  6-2 65.1 61 24 24 19 34  3.31 3.31
Dave Stewart     8  6  7-1 58.0 48 16 16 18 34  2.48 2.48
Mike Mussina     7  3  2-2 45.1 55 27 21 17 40  4.17 5.36
Chuck Finley     7  3  1-5 52.0 45 21 19 27 34  3.29 3.63
Mark Gubicza     7  3  0-5 48.1 46 24 24 27 19  4.47 4.47
Kevin Appier     6  6  3-2 47.0 30  9  9 11 41  1.72 1.72
Al Leiter        6  3  3-2 39.0 33 20 19 22 22  4.38 4.62
Frank Tanana     6  1  2-2 41.2 42 21 21 15 23  4.54 4.54
Scott Erickson   6  6  2-3 48.1 31  9  9 16 37  1.68 1.68
Jack Morris      6  2  2-4 40.0 50 26 26 19 23  5.85 5.85
Tim Leary        6  1  1-3 37.2 43 23 23 17 17  5.50 5.50
Jim Abbott       6  2  1-4 40.0 42 22 22 18 22  4.95 4.95
Frank Viola      6  2  1-5 31.0 35 28 28 16 18  8.13 8.13
Kirk McCaskill   6  2  0-4 31.1 42 18 18 11 21  5.17 5.17
Bret Saberhagen  6  4  0-4 37.2 40 13 13  9 21  3.11 3.11
Mike Moore       6  2  0-5 26.2 38 28 28 18 15  9.45 9.45
Perhaps I'm easily amused, but that's a fun list. Jimmy Key never got anything like Stewart's fame for beating Clemens head to head, but he went 6-2 in 10 starts. The guy you have to feel sorry for on this list is Scott Erickson, who has had six quality starts, six outstanding starts, in going toe-to-toe with the Rocket, and he's got two wins to show for it. A little bit of run support, and he'd be the owner of a live whammy. On the other hand, what you don't see here is that he beat Clemens on Opening Day this year with yet another quality start, evening his career record against Clemens at 3-3.

A lot of famous aces didn't do so hot facing the big guy. Mark Gubicza and Mike Mussina, Jack Morris and Frank Viola -- they all didn't exactly rise to the occasion. Bret Saberhagen obviously did, time and again, but like Erickson, doesn't appear to have gotten much help from his teammates.

The rest of the list of everybody who's every started against Clemens is pretty interesting. Walt Terrell got three wins against Clemens in five starts, not that Terrell pitched particularly well, but that's kind of cool. Scott Sanderson had four quality starts in four starts, but went 2-2. Omar Olivares had five quality starts in five starts against Clemens, not that that's going to drag him back into the big leagues; he beat Clemens twice and lost once. Pedro Martinez has beaten Clemens once in three starts, posting a 1.23 ERA in his gigs, and has never taken a loss against him. Dave Johnson -- not the manager -- went three-for-three in quality starts against Clemens. Nolan Ryan went 1-2 against the Rocket. And DeLeon? Those two wins in two starts were the only times DeLeon ever faced Clemens, not bad for a guy usually remembered for his 19-loss seasons in 1985 and 1990.

So does anybody have a chance to join Key and Stewart? Will there be a third amigo able to shoot down the Rocket? Well, beyond Erickson, there are three other active pitchers with as many as three wins in starts against Clemens. As you can see on the chart, Al Leiter and Kevin Appier are two of those pitchers. While it looks like Leiter will miss Clemens in this Mets-Yankees tangle, Appier might get a chance when the Yankees play the Angels. But the name you don't see is the Twins' Eric Milton, who owns a 3-1 record in games against Clemens. Milton has put up a quality start each of the four times he's faced him, posting a 2.15 ERA. And while it might seem premature, keep in mind that if Milton ever wins a fourth game against Clemens, he'll be the only pitcher besides Key and Stewart to have ever beaten Clemens more than three times.

And Shawn Estes? It's his first shot at Clemens. Come Saturday in the Big Apple, we'll see what sort of history he makes.

You can check out more work from the team of writers of the Baseball Prospectus (tm) at their web site at baseballprospectus.com. Chris Kahrl can be reached at ckahrl@baseballprospectus.com.






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