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| Thursday, April 11 Updated: April 12, 6:00 PM ET Success or failure begins at the top By Joe Sheehan Special to ESPN.com |
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Paul Wilson has taken a long and arduous path since being selected with the No. 1 pick in baseball's amateur draft in 1994. He's been part of the Mets' "Young Guns," been injured, been injured some more, undergone multiple surgeries to repair arm damage, and finally, at 29, is beginning to emerge as one of the game's better pitchers. He closed last season with a 2.39 ERA after the All-Star break, and has opened 2002 with two excellent starts, pitching 15 innings and posting a 1.20 ERA. Wilson was the 30th No. 1 pick in baseball's annual June draft. The selection of amateur talent was instituted in 1965, when Major League Baseball was looking for a way to stop the upward spiral of bonus money paid to newly-signed amateur players. While the draft is often spun as a tool to address competitive balance, the real reason it came about was the sharp increase in signing bonuses in the 1960s. It was a money-saving tool. The draft was, however, a factor in ending the competitive-balance problems that plagued the game from 1920 through the early 1960s. The current competitive environment, for all the complaining, is light-years better than it was in the mid-20th century, and in fact, is above historical norms; the draft is a big reason for that.
So what have we seen on draft day? Well, very little, because unlike its major-sport counterparts, MLB has never televised its draft, nor does it go out of its way to publicize it. For years, in fact, MLB wouldn't release the order in which players were selected, so as to not allow players to use the information in negotiations. If not for the tremendous coverage by Baseball America, the draft would mostly go unnoticed by baseball fans. Even conducted in semi-secrecy, the draft is a key part of building a winning baseball team, and nothing is bigger than having the first pick in the draft. Making the right choice at No. 1 can set the building block for a world championship -- Darryl Strawberry, 1980, New York Mets -- or make your team a punchline well into the next century -- Steve Chilcott, 1966, New York Mets. Strawberry is one of the great draft successes, a No. 1 pick who had a 17-year career and was part of two world championships. He's the right fielder on the following all-No. 1 pick team:
C: B.J. Surhoff, 1985, Brewers We're cheating a little here. While four catchers have been selected No. 1 (including Danny Goodwin twice), only Surhoff really spent any time behind the plate in the majors. Phil Nevin, drafted as a third baseman, actually ranks second among No. 1 picks in games caught. Dunston at second base is also cheating, but the other choices are shortstops-turned-utility-infielders Bill Almon and Tim Foli. No amateur second baseman has ever been selected No. 1, which makes sense: professional second basemen are just amateur shortstops forced to move for one reason or another. Everybody remembers the No. 1's, but the guys selected immediately after them make for a pretty good squad themselves. Here's the all-No. 2 pick team:
C: John Stearns, 1973, Phillies There's a pretty good power core, there, although it's weak up the middle. OK, it's brutal up the middle. As much as we talk about guys being flops, it's a relative term. Just two No. 1 picks through 1998 have never played in the major leagues: Steve Chilcott (1966, Mets) and Brien Taylor (1991, Yankees). Just three No. 2's have suffered a similar fate, although there are a lot more token careers on that list. There's nothing so painful as the "Heads! I said 'heads'!" moment, when a team takes the wrong player. Here's the biggest gaps between a No. 2 and a No. 1 pick:
Making the right call can feel pretty good, though. Here are the largest gaps in the right direction:
Only two No. 1 picks have not signed in the year they were drafted. Danny Goodwin, taken first in 1971 out of high school in Illinois, declined to sign with the White Sox. Four years later, he was again the top pick, this time by the Angels. He would have a brief career as an outfielder. In 1983, Tim Belcher passed on the Twins and eventually went through the now-defunct January phase of the draft, where he was selected by the Yankees. He would go on to win 146 games in a 14-year career. Of the 30 major-league teams, 20 have had the first pick in the draft. The Indians, Reds, Expos, Dodgers and Giants have drafted as high as second (Cleveland four times). The Cardinals (Braden Looper, 1996) and Red Sox (Mike Garman, 1967) have each drafted third. Not including the Diamondbacks (22nd) and Rockies (7th, twice), that leaves the Royals as having the lowest "high" pick -- fourth (twice, Jeff Austin in 1998 and Mike Stodolka in 2000). On the other hand, the Mets, Padres, and Mariners have drafted first four times each, the most of any franchise. The Padres drafted first three times in five years from 1970 through 1974, getting little -- Mike Ivie, Dave Roberts, and Bill Almon -- for their trouble. You can check out more work from the team of writers of the Baseball Prospectus (tm) at their web site at baseballprospectus.com. Joe Sheehan can be reached at jsheehan@baseballprospectus.com. |
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