The American League Most Valuable Player Award will be announced on Tuesday. Listed below are the top handful of candidates (well, Antonio Alfonseca's handful) listed in the order I believe they will finish:

	Miguel Tejada Shortstop Oakland Athletics Profile
	2002 SEASON STATISTICS GM HR RBI R OPS AVG 162 34 131 108 .861 .308

1. Miguel Tejada, SS, A's
Guys hanging around the swimming pool learn early that it pays to do the fancy dive off the high board when the girls are looking. Just about the time the buzz started for Tejada as MVP, he put together walk-off hits that extended Oakland's winning streak to 18 and 19 games in early September. That bit of business really injected fuel into the engine of his candidacy and the buzz turned into a loud droning that he should get the award. For precedent, look no further than the Chipper Jones victory in 1999. He was having an excellent season but then had a September series in which he devastated the Mets and kept first place safe for the Braves. They might as well have handed him the award right then and there.

AL rankings:
OPS (on-base + slugging): 17th
Home runs: 7th
RBI: 3rd
Runs scored: 10th
On-base pct.: 30th
Slugging pct.: 17th

	Alfonso Soriano Second Base New York Yankees Profile
	2002 SEASON STATISTICS GM HR RBI R OPS AVG 156 39 102 128 .880 .300

2. Alfonso Soriano, 2B, Yankees
It is much harder to maintain an earlier buzz than it is a later one. Soriano was the hot MVP candidate for much of the first half of the season, but was usurped by Tejada when the A's went on their historic tear.

Here's the conundrum of modern MVP voting: The current thinking is that, in order for a player to win the MVP, he must play for a contender. However, in order for a team to contend, the player must have two or three teammates who play at a high caliber as well, diversifying the credit for the team's success. Soriano played for a contender in 2002, but two of his teammates, Jason Giambi and Bernie Williams, enjoyed seasons of either nearly equal or greater caliber. How can a player distinguish himself as "most valuable" when he is operating in a theater with other skilled surgeons? Furthermore, can a player be the most valuable player of a league when he is not even the most valuable on his own team?

AL rankings:
OPS (on-base + slugging): 14th
Home runs: 5th
RBI: 17th
Runs scored: 1st
On-base pct.: 48th
Slugging pct.: 9th
Stolen bases: 1st

	Alex Rodriguez Shortstop Texas Rangers Profile
	2002 SEASON STATISTICS GM HR RBI R OPS AVG 162 57 142 125 1.015 .300

3. Alex Rodriguez, SS, Rangers
As you have no doubt heard a thousand times this year: "the award is not for 'best season' but for most valuable to the team." Of course, I would contend that having the best season makes one invaluable to one's team.

A-Rod had the best season in the American League, hands down and he will, once again, be denied the MVP award. We shouldn't feel too sorry for Alex, though. He's got money, a cool job, a new wife and a one-way ticket to Cooperstown. He's just not going to win any MVPs due to circumstances beyond his control.

AL rankings:
OPS (on-base + slugging): 4th
Home runs: 1st
RBI: 1st
Runs scored: 2nd
On-base pct.: 8th
Slugging pct.: 3rd

	Jason Giambi First Base New York Yankees Profile
	2002 SEASON STATISTICS GM HR RBI R OPS AVG 155 41 122 120 1.034 .314

4. Jason Giambi, 1B, Yankees
I think voters like surprises; that's why they fell in love with Ichiro Suzuki last year and gave him the MVP. Jason Giambi surprises nobody with his greatness anymore and will, therefore, have to settle for fourth place in this year's voting. Giambi had the best season of any Yankee but then, that was what he was supposed to do.

Speaking of Ichiro, there is a valuable lesson in his 2001-2002 seasons. Let's see if I can figure out what it is. I think it is this: an exciting, new player looks great on a team that wins 116 games but not quite so great on one that wins 93. Therefore, we cannot hope to find him in the top 10 for voting this year, a drop-off in finish disproportionate to his drop-off in production.

AL rankings:
OPS (on-base + slugging): 3rd
Home runs: 4th
RBI: 5th
Runs scored: 4th
On-base pct.: 3rd
Slugging pct.: 4th

	Jim Thome First Base Cleveland Indians Profile
	2002 SEASON STATISTICS GM HR RBI R OPS AVG 147 52 118 101 1.122 .304

5. Jim Thome, 1B, Indians
In 2002, Jim Thome was not a true solo act like his former teammate Brian Giles was in Pittsburgh, but he was in the neighborhood. (If the MVP were granted solely on the percentage of a team's production a player was responsible for, Giles would have won it this year in the NL.)

Tejada had Eric Chavez (not to mention three of the most valuable pitchers in the league in Barry Zito, Tim Hudson and Billy Koch), Soriano and Giambi had each other and Bernie Williams and Alex Rodriguez had Rafael Palmiero whose Viagra campaign got so much ink that it obscured the fact that he was having a wonderful season. Thome had Ellis Burks, but after that it was on over-achieving Omar Vizquel and precious little else. What would it take for Thome to win an MVP award? I think if he signed with the Phillies and they made it to the postseason, he would be in a pretty good position to get himself one.

AL rankings:
OPS (on-base + slugging): 1st
Home runs: 2nd
RBI: 7th
Runs scored: 15th
On-base pct.: 2nd
Slugging pct.: 1st

	Garret Anderson Left Field Anaheim Angels Profile
	2002 SEASON STATISTICS GM HR RBI R OPS AVG 158 29 123 93 .871 .306

6. Garret Anderson, LF, Angels
As you know, the MVP votes are submitted the day after the regular season ends (or even a few days before). Were this not the case -- if the votes were cast after the World Series -- Garret Anderson would be the MVP because the fact that he was not one of the top 10 best players in the league would be completely forgotten in the wake of his team's success. No matter, he is still going to finish above his station. He is a very good ballplayer, one you would be happy to have on your team, but he is not among the elite owing to the number of outs he generates.

AL rankings:
OPS (on-base + slugging): 16th
Home runs: 14th
RBI: 4th
Runs scored: 23rd
On-base pct.: 50th
Slugging pct.: 11th

Others worth mentioning:

Manny Ramirez took himself out of the running with his headfirst slide into home plate that resulted in his missing 30 games. Had he played the full complement, he would not have been denied a top-five or -six finish. ... Bernie Williams would pretty much have to light Yankee Stadium on fire and then put it out himself to get MVP notice at this point in his career. He's just been too good and too unspectacular for too long to put a spike in the EKG of his career that voters might notice. ... Magglio Ordonez plied his trade in the publicity-free zone known as New Comiskey Park for a team that went nowhere in a city where Sammy Sosa gets all the press. Their seasons were actually quite comparable. ... It used to be that a shortstop who drove in 120 runs could just about order the engraving on the MVP Award himself, but Nomar Garciaparra is operating in the most talent-intensive shortstop environment in history and might be lucky to crack the top 10 this year. Given that the Red Sox are going to be the predictive team of choice for next year, I would put him as the early favorite for 2003.

Jim Baker writes Monday through Friday for ESPN Insider. He can be reached at jimbakerespn@yahoo.com.