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| Monday, September 16 Updated: September 17, 7:22 AM ET Baker's Dozen: The week in preview By Jim Baker ESPN Insider |
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1: Best Matchup of the Week I would like you to imagine how much greater this series would be if one of the teams did not come out of it alive. I understand that the players on both clubs will be going full out and the baseball will be of the highest caliber but, frankly, the edge is missing. Those who support four-teams-per-league in the postseason (and, heaven forbid, even more than that) do not understand the fundamental drama of the winner-take-all scenario of the pre-wild-card days. Baseball has lost something very important with the doubling of its playoff teams: the sensation of something final and foreboding. That simply cannot be manufactured.
2: The National League's Last Shot at Drama Matchup of
the Week Can we start talking about Jeff Kent as a possible Hall of Famer? Well, we can do anything we want, since it's a free country. But can we do it without being sneered at by sophisticated types in trendy clothes? As of this moment, he is not Hallworthy. However, he turns 35 just prior to the start of next season and it is not unreasonable to believe he could put up three more seasons comparable to those of the 1997 to 2002 period. If he hits 25 to 30 home runs, drives in 100 and gets 175 hits per year in the next three seasons, what you will have is a second baseman with 2,000 career hits, 300-plus home runs and over 1300 RBI. These are the kind of numbers that are bound to impress a Hall of Fame voter. He has now put up five consecutive plus-.500 slugging averages. Among second basemen, only Nap Lajoie and Rogers Hornsby have done this. There is this to consider, too: Kent has the kind of offensive skills that will warrant a possible move to first base a few years down the road. That would allow him to pile on more counting stats to impress the voters. He could also -- via his impending free agency -- escape to a more hitter-friendly ballpark and actually improve his numbers in the immediate future. All of this is contingent on him taking care of himself, of course. That would mean no more washing his own truck or trying to jump the Snake River Canyon on his motorcycle. "Mr. Kent and Mr. Bonds"
Mr. Kent and Mr. Bonds:
Mr. Bonds and Mr. Kent.
Mr. Bonds and Mr. Kent
"Mr. Kent," said Mr. Bonds,
3: The Victory Lap Matchup of the Week Congratulations to the Twins upon their clinching the American League Central Division. (Note to self: check with honchos at ESPN.com in Bristol to confirm propriety of congratulating a team on an accomplishment from the standpoint of objectivity, bias and general all-around professionalism.)
4: The National League Victory Lap Matchup of the Week Congratulations as well to the Braves on their 48th consecutive division title. Is it too late for Atlanta to do something about third base before the playoffs start? Vinny Castilla has been operating in Rey Ordonez/Neifi Perez productivity territory throughout the season and it brings up two questions: 1. They moved Chipper Jones off of third base for this? 2. How far can they get with this kind of hole in their lineup? Defensive questions aside, would they be better off with Mark DeRosa playing third base? He's been more productive albeit in a limited role. Having both Keith Lockhart and Castilla in the lineup is going to make for some short innings come playoff time. Of course, if the Braves' pitching shows up in strength, they can afford to write off a third of the batting order, but the caliber of competition is tougher here and, as such, runs will be harder to come by for everyone. It's too bad for them they're going in without their guns fully loaded.
5: The Biggest Mismatchup of the Week How far apart are these teams -- aside from the obvious 45 games? Looking at Runs Created Per 27 outs (in other words, the number of runs a team comprised of an entire lineup of Jason Giambis or Brent Abernathys would score per game), four Yankees show up on in the league standings before coming to the first Devil Ray. Among batting title qualifiers, Giambi, Bernie Williams, Alfonso Soriano and Derek Jeter all rate before Randy Winn. Robin Ventura is about even with him. (Aubrey Huff would rate pretty well, but doesn't have enough plate appearances just yet.) The Devil Rays went 10-4 in the last two weeks of 2001 to avoid the kind of record they seem bent on descending to this year. One of the amazing things about that run is that they beat Roger Clemens twice, spoiling his nifty 20-1 record. By all rights, Clements could have gone 22-1 or 21-1, which would have been the most fantastic won-loss record ever. Fate doesn't like that sort of thing, though and Tanyon Sturtze beat him 4-0 and he also got punched around in an 8-4 loss a week later. Sturtze also won two other games in that Devil Rays' end run. So much for building momentum for the next season, huh? He lost his first eight decisions this year and, save for one five-game run of quality starts in late June/early July (during which he went 1-1 with three no-decisions), he's been spotty at best.
6: The Biggest National League Mismatchup of the Week Speaking of Runs Created Per 27 Outs, Todd Helton and Larry Walker are putting up big numbers in this category (over nine each). One would expect that from excellent hitters playing in a hitter's paradise. Brian Giles is even better, posting a 9.70 figure and generating a huge percentage of his team's offense (the next-highest Pirate among batting title qualifiers is Jason Kendall with less than half of Giles count). The thing of it is this: you would have to take some combination of Giles, Walker or Helton (second, third and fourth in the league respectively) to better what Barry Bonds has done in this category in 2002. His 18.84 is nearly double that of his nearest competitor! Do we really need to debate about the National League MVP Award any further?
7: The Prodigal Son Returns Once More Matchup of the Week Fresh off of physically extricating the Mariners from the race with a four-game sweep at home last week, the Rangers wash up at Safeco Field where they can be thanked for their efforts in person by the fans of Seattle. I still think we're going to have a four-team race in that division one of these years. All four teams are interesting, either as teams or as showcases for great individuals. With a few right moves, the Rangers could be right in the thick of it next year. In one of those weird little coincidences that will sometimes happen, after Saturday night's action, there was a brief moment when Alex Rodriguez and Nomar Garciaparra had the exact same number of at bats (578) and hits (179). Apart from that:
Nomar had twice as many doubles (50 to 25).
8: The Worst Matchup of the Week Sometimes, when you least expect it, you'll watch a game like this and be totally surprised. For instance, I was watching last week's Worst Matchup of the Week (Kansas City at Detroit) on Friday night, and who should show up in the broadcast booth but Jackie Chan? What kind of ballplayer would Chan have been? Let's say he was from Taiwan instead of Hong Kong and had grown up around the game. Given his penchant for doing his own stunts, the natural tendency is to think of him as being a hell-bent-for-leather kind of player with no regard for personal safety. He's a pretty smart guy, though, so you'd have to think that he would figured out fairly quickly that self-sacrifice is not always the best route in baseball. I think he would have started as a shortstop but would have been turned into a wall-climbing center fielder and would have been a line-drive hitter with 25-home run power and an aggressive yet highly successful basestealer.
9: The Nails in the Coffin Matchup of the Week I have only met one Angels fan in my life in person. I've never lived further west than Texas, but I know people who do live in Southern California who swear that they have never met one either. Well, they used to swear that. Now, finally, after 40 years, there actually appear to be some who make that claim. How recently they came to this conclusion is anyone's guess, although a good one would be "sometime around the 2002 All-Star break." This would be the perfect time to jump on the bandwagon. Playoff tickets go on sale next Saturday, so that gives you a whole week to immerse yourself in all things Angels. You can buy a monkey and name it "Rally." You can find out who Bobby Knoop is and drop his name at cocktail parties -- provided you can figure out if the 'K' is silent or not. You can talk about your pain stemming from the great collapses of 1982 and 1986 -- even if you're only 22 and can barely remember what happened to the Angels in those years. Yes, you've got less than a week to get your halo straight before you camp out on Friday night in an attempt to join that great and growing republic: Angel Nation.
10: The Old School Matchup of the Week I'm currently reading a new book called "Ghost Soldiers." It's about a behind-the-lines raid to rescue the prisoners at a Japanese POW camp in the Philippines in January of 1945. Prior to the discussion of the raid itself, it details the misery of the captives detained in the camp, some of whom had survived the Bataan Death March. The attrition rate was extremely high and many of those who did not die simply lost touch with reality. One such prisoner was described to author Hampton Sides by a survivor named Tommie Thomas: "Sometimes, if he didn't have work duty, Thomas liked to go over to Section 8, the medical ward for the mentally disturbed, and crouch beneath the window. There was a guy in there who would "broadcast" baseball games from time to time. The Cubs would be playing the Giants, and this poor baseball-obsessed lunatic made the play-by-play sound so realistic it was astonishing. There might as well have been a radio blaring. People would get so caught up in it they'd forget it wasn't real. The announcer would go on relaying the game, oblivious to the rapt audience growing beneath his window. Later arrivals would whisper, "What inning is it?" Taken out of context, there is a certain amount of found humor in that anecdote. Knowing what the men involved went through, however, makes it something very far from funny. I know well that if I had ever had the misfortune to end up in their circumstances, I would have craved hearing those broadcasts as a welcome respite from the malignancy of my captors and the deprivations they enforced.
11: The E-Z Sked Matchup of the Week First the Devil Rays, then the Tigers: it literally doesn't get any easier than that. Playing the same game with the Tigers as with the Devil Rays above: six Yankees create more runs per 27 outs than the best Tiger. Add Jorge Posada to those listed above and they're all better than Bobby Higginson's 46th-ranked 5.30 figure. Comerica Park doesn't help, but throw a run to Higginson and he only outpaces Posada and Ventura. Throw a run to the next-best Tiger, Randall Simon, and he still doesn't surpass any of them. I'm waiting for some pitcher to blow into that place and saw through the Tigers for a no-hitter. There hasn't been a no-hitter in Detroit since 1973 when both Nolan Ryan of the Angels and Steve Busby of the Royals threw one in Tiger Stadium. Some of the cast of The Sopranos threw out first pitches at Yankee Stadium on Saturday and Jamie-Lynn Sigler (Meadow) sang the National Anthem. The third season ended so long ago that I'm beginning to get fuzzy on details, but can you think of any baseball references in the run of the series? I recall a flashback scene to Tony's youth where he is out in front of his house with a ball and glove and Uncle Junior pulls up sporting '60s horn-rim glasses. I believe Junior mentions a ballplayer by name. Can you recall who it is? Are there any other baseball moments you can think of?
12: The Wait Until Next Year Matchup of the Week Speaking of illegal pursuits, wouldn't it be fun right now to make a bet on which of these teams will have the better record in 2003? A half game separates them, so they're starting basically from the same position. Without considering personnel matters, my guess would be the Phillies in that they fell off from 2001 and teams usually spring back and forth (but not always). The Reds, on the other hand, are much improved over 2001 in spite of their fade down the stretch. History shows teams like that will often fall back in the ensuing year. But there is no reason they can't keep moving up the ladder, especially using Adam Dunn and Austin Kearns as the bedrock for rebuilding. Is Bob Boone the man to take them to the next level? Is his old teammate, Larry Bowa, the man to take the Phillies back to the postseason for the first time in a decade? Such are the questions that plague out-of-contention teams.
13: The Batting Race Watcher's Matchup of the Week
Check out ESPN Insider Jim Baker's 'Baker's Dozen' column appears on Mondays during the baseball season. He also writes Monday through Friday for ESPN Insider. He can be reached at jimbakerespn@yahoo.com. |
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as Jim breaks down the final days of the AL batting race.
