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| Monday, July 1 Baker's Dozen: The week in preview By Jim Baker Special to ESPN.com |
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1: Best Matchup of the Week I woke up this morning with a very bad cough, having suffered a train ride from Boston yesterday in a passenger car that was cooled to about 48 degrees. I was so cold I was forced to take shirts I had already worn out of my bag to put them on over my clothes. I'm sure I didn't look very prosperous with this ad hoc layered look and it led to the following exchange: CONDUCTOR: We don't get many homeless on the Acela high-speed train. ME: And at these prices, it's no wonder. In any event -- as I said -- I woke up coughing like a consumptive on a tour of a Philip Morris plant, but the only thing I could find for my problem was a bottle of cough syrup that had a two year-old expiration date on it. I once heard somewhere (I think it was in an interview with Dee Dee Ramone) that when medicine expires it doesn't become ineffective, it just loses some of its potency. "Great," I figured, "I'll compensate by upping the dosage." This I did unscientifically by tipping up the bottle and guzzling freely. My next move was to read the All Star selections in the morning paper and, when I didn't see Shawn Green's name among those selected by National League manager Bob Brenly, I naturally assumed the cough medicine was having an adverse effect on my sense of reality. I reread the outfielders again and still his name did not appear. How could this be? I wondered. And if it was true, where was the outrage? Then I checked ESPN.com and saw that he was, in fact, named as a reserve. It was not the cough medicine after all -- it was a typographical omission. This leads me to make the following pledge: I will never trust the printed media again. I will only trust what I read on the Internet. (As an aside: there was one truly great moment on my train trip. We passed the little ballpark in Bridgeport, Connecticut just as the National Anthem was played before the start of an Atlantic League game. The players and a color guard were on the field and the fans were all standing at attention. Because everyone was standing stock still, it looked like a panoramic 3-D photograph. Bridgeport beat Long Island 2-1, by the way.) Anyway, I, thinking Green was not an All Star, thought this series might be a good place for him to seek revenge, but, such is no the case. Paul Lo Duca might feel a bit slighted as his numbers are in the same general vicinity as those of Damian Miller, the backup Brenly named from his own team. Junior Spivey was a good choice, though. I'm not so sure about Byung-Hyun Kim. Amazingly, the Diamondbacks players were mad at their manager for not picking Craig Counsell! How much charity do they want, anyway? Counsell is the second-lowest producing regular on the team (ahead of only Tony Womack) and is eighth among National League third baseman in OPS. World Series hero? Yes. All-Star? No.
2: The House Un-American Activities Committee Matchup
of the Week First we lose the Pledge of Allegiance in our schools and, now, this: two red-blooded American baseball teams not playing our nation's game on our nation's birthday. What sort of communistic, socialistic, totalitarian boondoggle is this? I have here in my hand a list of 57 prominent members of the commissioner's office (commissioner? More like commissar I'd say) who are on the payroll of the KGB. What kind of degenerate hippies are running this game, anyway?
3: The Isn't it About Time We Switched Places? Matchup
of the Week Look at the expected won-loss records of these two teams, based on the number of runs they've scored and allowed: Astros 39-40 Reds 38-42 Now here are the actual records: Reds 43-37 Astros 36-43 How much longer can this go on before they both regress to the mean? (I'm sorry. I've always wanted to compose a sentence that contained the phrase "regress to the mean." Thank you for your indulgence.) Here in the real world, however, the Reds lead the Astros by 6.5 games. That's a heck of a division, by the way, where only one of six teams -- the Cardinals -- has outscored its opponents; and they've only done so by 18 runs. The Astros' road game has gone to perdition. They had the best road record in the league last year but now rank among the worst (14-25). Nothing seems so obvious like that which is before you. By that I mean it is hard to look at the standings and imagine them turning out any other way than how they appear on the day of observation. Trying to break out of that mindset I say this: the Astros can still win this thing.
4: The Worst Matchup of the Week
When Pirates host Brewers Warning: you must be 21 years of age or older to follow the advice given forth in this verse.
5: The Best Fenway Park Matchup of the Week Another reason to hate Osama Bin Laden is that, thanks to him, we now have obsessive security screening in all sorts of places. At Fenway Park on Friday night my friends and I were frisked most vigorously as we went into the bleacher gate. I mean, this frisker guy put his heart and soul into it, you know what I'm saying? When it was over I felt compelled to make like Mike Piazza and have a press conference to announce my sexual preference. I mean, that guy was into it. Guy: Hey, got a new job. Other Guy: Yeah? Whaddya doin'? Guy: I frisk guys at Fenway Park. Other Guy: Yeah? How's that workin' out for ya? Guy: Pretty good. It's twenty-five bucks a game. Other Guy: Really? Hey, ain't there a game starting in like half an hour? How come you ain't over there? Guy: I haven't raised the twenty-five bucks yet.
6: The Second-Best Fenway Park Matchup of the Week Fenway Park: where no one-run lead is safe. It used to be that any time a team got a big lead at the Fens, the play-by-play announcer would say: "No lead is safe in this park." Now it has to be modified to my opening sentence there. I miss the bombardment days, don't you? I watched Saturday's game with Don Zminda of STATS, Inc. and was bemoaning the loss of those run-happy days of Fenway's past. Don put his mind to the problem and worked out a solution to bring scoring back up to levels prior to the 600 Club being built. Since the left-field wall is already just 15 feet beyond third base, moving it any closer would be silly. The thing to do is cut the Green Monster down from its 37-foot height to something more like six to eight feet. That ought to help ... For anyone who wonders why I was in Boston (like the people who monitor my electronic ankle bracelet, for instance), I was there to attend the Society of American Baseball Research convention. And, for those who wonder what goes on at these events, members give presentations on various topics having to do with historical research or statistical analysis. One such presentation that I attended was by Tom Tippett. It was a well-documented dismissal of the sacrifice bunt as a useful tool. While most Sabermetricians have decried the sacrifice for years, Tom took it a step further and floated the notion that it is not even a smart percentage play when the pitcher is at bat. Within 24 hours of being presented with this thesis and the statistical evidence to back it up, I had to sit through the following nightmare: In the top of the seventh inning, the Red Sox were batting while down 2-1. Jason Varitek led off with a walk on four pitches off of Mike Remlinger. The next batter, Trot Nixon, was sent up to bunt. He squared on the first pitch but drew back and took a ball. The next pitch was wide as well. Remlinger had now missed on six straight pitches. I think you know what's coming next. The next pitch was very high and would have been ball three but Nixon laid the bat flat, offered at it and fouled it off. On the next pitch, Nixon got the job done (and the inning undone), moving Varitek down to second at the cost of a precious out. This brought up those well-known RBI machines, Lou Merloni and Rickey Henderson, to bring him around to score. Both went out quietly. The interesting thing about Grady Little and the Red Sox is that they have the second-fewest sacrifices in the American League. (Only the A's have fewer and that's because GM Billy Beane has all but banned the play) So then, I'm not going to criticize Little for his overall misuse of the sac bunt when he has clearly been moderate in its deployment. But in this instance it was ill-conceived from the start and only got worse as the at-bat went forward. Why, with Remlinger clearly having a lapse of control, did Little keep the sacrifice in place?
7: The Pete Gray Memorial Matchup of the Week It would be remiss not to mention the passing of Pete Gray (born Peter Wyshner) the player who appeared in 77 games with the St. Louis Browns in 1945 in spite of (or because of -- if you employ the cynical view) having only one arm. Gray passed away yesterday at the age of 87 in his hometown of Nanticoke, Pennsylvania. I chose this game because his team has long since moved on to Baltimore and they're playing in Texas and Anaheim this week, two places that do not evoke 1945. Detroit beat out the Browns for the pennant that year by seven games. (Washington was between them -- the closest that city will get to a pennant until Vladimir Guerrero, Bartolo Colon, Jose Vidro and the rest of those Expos show up next year.) There were some mutterings on the Browns that having Gray on the team was nothing more than a cheap stunt and that it cost them the pennant. That's silly, of course. Even if Gray, who hit .218 with six doubles, two triples and 13 walks in 234 at-bats, had been replaced by a superstar -- and they're weren't any hanging around on street corners during the war -- overcoming seven games and two teams would not have been possible. Speaking of ballplayers like Gray, the Indianapolis Clowns had a young man in their employ in the early 1970s by the name of Steve Anderson. These Clowns were the direct descendents of the Negro League franchise that gave Hank Aaron an early professional job. By the '70s, they were barnstorming fairs and high schools. Anderson was known as "Nub" and played first base. Ed Hamman, who ran the Clowns, had seen both men play and thought Anderson was the superior ballplayer. I come by this information from a book called "Some Are Called Clowns," by Bill Heward. It was published in 1975. Heward played for the team and wrote of their amusing exploits. Lest we never forget what an impact "Ball Four" had on the world, the cover of Heward's book contains this blurb:
"Could be called the 'Ball Four' of the Bush leagues ... " Here are two others I pulled out of my collection that use blurbs referencing it. I'm sure there are more: "The funniest book to come out of the locker room since Jim Bouton's 'Ball Four!'" -- Washington Post on "The Wrong Stuff" by Bill Lee and Dick Lally "More candid and revealing than Bouton's 'Ball Four.'" -- radio station KFRC on "Behind the Mask" by Bill Freehan
8: The Whoever Thought This Would Matter Back in March? Well, it sort of matters. Leads of 8 1/2 games at the hal-way point usually do not evaporate. If the Braves sweep, it's going to be one nightmare of a second half in that division.
9: The 30th Man Matchup of the Week This is the only head-to-head meeting between 30th man candidates prior to the conclusion of voting tomorrow. I wouldn't want to pick between them -- not to mention Brian Giles, Andruw Jones and Larry Walker. What a logjam of talent! I guess I'd have to go with Giles.
10: The DeMarcus Beasley Matchup of the Week So named because both teams have pissed away so many of their resources over the last few years.
11: The It Can Only Get Better From Here Matchup of the
Week Here's a note from today's Newark Star-Ledger that will warm the hearts of Yankee fans and make the rest of the baseball universe sigh in resignation: "Other than the occasional games against the Red Sox or those pesky Orioles, the Yankees schedule looks pretty soft from here on out. American League bottom feeders they have yet to play include the Indians, Tigers, Royals and Rangers. Just 21 of their remaining 81 games are against teams that have winning records."
12: The C.A.D. (Contraction Anxiety Disorder) Matchup of
the Week As I mentioned, I was at the SABR convention in Boston, and one of the highlights was a panel discussion featuring a member of each of the media that covers baseball. Gordon Edes of the Boston Globe represented newspapers, Red Sox announcer Joe Castiglione represented radio, Braves announcer Pete Van Wieren represented television and our own Rob Neyer represented the Internet. Van Wieren got the biggest hand of the hour when asked what he would recommend to improve baseball. His answer, which I am paraphrasing, went something like this: "Well, for starters, it would help to have a commissioner who wasn't bad-mouthing the game all the time." That brought down the house, a very crowded ballroom in the Park Plaza Hotel. This is such a fundamentally sound point it bears repeating over and over again: no matter what business one is in, one does not publicly advertise that business's shortcomings. Whether it is a manager publicly ripping an umpire or a player unloading on the management of a former team, it is incumbent upon those inside the game to keep from criticizing the product in a public forum. This goes double for the faux fuhrer of baseball, Bud Selig. What Selig is doing with his constant poor-mouth routine is the equivalent to the late Colonel Sanders standing in front of one of his chicken restaurants and telling anyone who will listen that the food is no damn good and, by the way, we never, ever clean the bathrooms.
13: The One Way or Another, Raul Mondesi Will Be Playing
in This Matchup of the Week
Check out ESPN Insider Jim Baker's 'Baker's Dozen' column appears on Mondays during the baseball season. He also writes Monday through Friday for ESPN Insider. |
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for the details on the Raul Mondesi saga of recent days.
