Kiper: Top senior prospects for '03 (Oct. 10)

Kiper: Road warriors excel

Mel Kiper Archive

Tuesday, March 8

For 'Noles to score upset, no TOs key

NEWS & NOTES: Oct. 10

Editor's Note: We hear there are some decent college football games Saturday -- let's see, Oklahoma-Texas and Florida State-Miami might qualify, huh? Come along for the ride as Mel Kiper Jr. previews the weekend's key games.

FLORIDA STATE-MIAMI
The defending national champion Hurricanes are riding a 27-game unbeaten streak into their game on Saturday at high noon against Florida State. They are currently 5-0, went 12-0 last season and closed out the 2000 campaign with 10 straight victories.

Willis McGahee
Willis McGahee averaged 6.4 yards per carry and scored 27 TDs in 2002.
Offensively, the skill-position talent, despite the loss of RB Clinton Portis and TE Jeremy Shockey, is second to none -- led by QB Ken Dorsey, RB Willis McGahee, TE Kellen Winslow Jr. and WR Andre Johnson.

Dorsey and McGahee are both in the Heisman race, while Winslow Jr. leads the Hurricanes with 16 catches. Johnson is reported to be at about 90 percent as he gradually works his way back to full strength following shoulder surgery in early September that forced him to miss one game.

The restructured offensive line has been solid overall so far, opening plenty of running room for McGahee in the early going. Dorsey has been sacked just three times.

Defensively, MLB Jonathan Vilma leads the Hurricanes with 34 tackles, while the talented and deep front four has generated steady pressure on opposing signal callers. William Joseph and Jerome McDougle, the senior DT/DE tandem, have combined for six sacks and 21 QB pressures.

The new-look Hurricane secondary has held its own through the first five games, limiting opposing QBs to a completion percentage of just 47.7 percent.

As for Florida State, the key to springing an upset will be avoiding turnovers, maintaining a strong overland attack with Greg Jones and Nick Maddox, and finding away to slow down Miami's multi-dimensional attack. Last year, in the Seminoles' 49-27 loss at Tallahassee, they actually outgained the Hurricanes (rushing for 214 yards), but were plagued by seven turnovers, which resulted in 28 points for Miami.

Jones, a junior, has been running like Earl Campbell, averaging 5.9 yards per carry with seven TDs, while Maddox provides a nice change of pace, averaging an impressive 6.7 yards per rush.

Sophomore QB Chris Rix should have some opportunities in the passing game. The Seminoles are led by a talented offensive line that features senior LT Brett Williams, senior OG Montrae Holland and blue-chip sophomore RT Ray Willis. By the way, the heir apparent to Williams at LT is highly regarded sophomore Alex Barron (6-6, 300).

If Rix has time to throw and provides the consistency that has been lacking at times this season, gifted junior wideout Anquan Boldin should be able to do some damage. Boldin has hauled in 27 receptions for a 16-yard average and four TDs.

The Seminoles have had their problems defensively.
Defensively, the Seminoles have had their problems, doing anything but resembling a first-rate unit. DEs Alonzo Jackson, Kevin Emanuel and pass-rush specialist Eric Moore must generate pressure against Dorsey, with standout DT Darnell Dockett getting the necessary inside push when working against the likely constant double teaming.

With 6-2, 270-pound MLB Jerel Hudson regarded as questionable with sprains to both ankles, it looks like the Seminoles will have to rely on junior Allen Augustin (6-1, 215) to slow down McGahee's running exploits.

Thus far, the FSU secondary has struggled, allowing opposing QBs a completion rate of nearly 60 percent. That's why it's incumbent on Jackson, Emanuel and Moore to throw off Dorsey's rhythm and timing with the wideouts.

OKLAHOMA-TEXAS
The Longhorns (5-0) welcomed back WR Roy Williams and CB Nathan Vasher from the injury list against Oklahoma State last week. Williams missed two games with a strained hamstring, while Vasher also was sidelined for two games with a sprained ankle.

Cedric Benson
Cedric Benson has been a workhorse for Texas, averaging 26 carries a game.
While not spectacular, QB Chris Simms has done a solid, consistent job thus far directing the Texas attack, throwing 10 TD passes with 3 interceptions, while completing 56.1 percent of his aerials.

WR Sloan Thomas leads the Longhorns with 19 catches, with Williams (16) and B.J. Johnson (13) right behind.

RB Cedric Benson is Texas' primary running threat, but it will be interesting to see if highly skilled freshman Selvin Young is worked into the mix against the Sooners. An explosive 6-foot, 195-pounder, Young has picked up 152 yards on 29 carries thus far and scored three TDs. He also has excelled in the return game, running back a punt for a TD. Young had a kickoff return for a TD called back because of a holding penalty.

On the offensive line, blue-chip senior Derrick Dockery has worked at both RT and RG due to the sprained ankle that has hampered RT Jonathan Scott since fall practice. Look for Scott and Dockery to split snaps against OU, with Dockery shifting inside to RG when Scott is in the lineup.

On the defensive side, while senior Cory Redding has yet to record a sack, he has 17 QB pressures and is always the focus of the opposition's blocking schemes. Thus far, Texas coach Mack Brown has to be more than satisfied with the defensive line, given the impressive performances turned in by freshmen Rodrique Wright and Bryan Pickryl.

Gifted sophomore Derrick Johnson ranks as one of the elite young linebackers in college football, and in the deep patrol senior Roderick Babers has been the team's standout performer. Last week, Babers limited sensational Oklahoma State junior wideout Rashaun Woods to six catches for just 63 yards. And, as mentioned, outstanding junior cover man Nathan Vasher was back on the field against Oklahoma State after missing two games with a sprained ankle.

Texas' kicking game should be in decent shape, although PK Dusty Mangum was successful on just 1-of-4 field-goal attempts last week against Oklahoma State. A real positive has been the improved performance of senior punter Brian Bradford. After averaging just 36.3 yards per punt last season, he's currently averaging 42.1 yards, providing the consistency coaches have been looking for.

Oklahoma (5-0) is also in good shape physically. Super blue-chip senior CB Andre Woolfolk is close to full strength for this week's showdown with Texas. Woolfolk sat out the last two games (vs. South Florida and Missouri) due to a sore tendon in his right knee. He's been practicing this week and appears to be ready to go.

Woolfolk's status is critical, since the Sooners must deal with Texas' physically talented and deep receiving corps. Remember, Roy Williams checks in at 6-4, Sloan Thomas at 6-2 and B.J. Johnson at 6-1.

Opposite Woolfolk is yet another big-time performer, rugged junior Derrick Strait, a super-tough run-support CB with a strong-safety mentality. The wideout-cornerback battle between Texas and OU figures to be the most intriguing matchup of the day.

By the way, the leading tackler for the Sooners through the first five games (with 62 stops) is LB Lance Mitchell (6-2, 244), the heralded juco transfer.

The major positive for the Sooners has been the improved play of senior QB Nate Hybl.
Offensively, the major positive for the Sooners has been the improved play of senior QB Nate Hybl. Since taking over for the injured Jason White, he's made significant progress each week. Hybl's decision-making has been superior, evidenced by the fact that he's tossed six TD passes and has yet to be intercepted. In fact, Hybl has thrown 148 passes without an interception going back to last year, the longest current streak in the country. He's also completing nearly 60 percent of his aerials.

Even though senior TE Trent Smith's receiving numbers are down some from last season (16 catches through five games compared to 61 all of last season), he still leads the Sooners with 16 grabs. OU also has five receivers with 14 or more catches, so Hybl has a number of options.

Up front, keep an eye on sophomore RT Jammal Brown (6-5, 310). He's making his mark as one of the top young offensive linemen in college football. In the backfield, Quentin Griffin has posted three 100-yard rushing performances, although two came against WAC opponents.

The big concern for coach Bob Stoops going into this marquee Saturday matchup has to be the kicking game. Last year, only 33 kickoffs were returned against the Sooners. This year, though just five games, 30 kickoffs have been returned against them already. Plus, freshman PK Trey DiCarlo is 5-of-8 on FGs, with misfires coming from 22, 34 and 43 yards. The punting game also presents some serious concerns. Sophomore Blake Ferguson had two punts blocked against Alabama and is currently averaging just 37.6 yards per punt.

CINCINNATI-TULANE
When the Cincinnati Bearcats, fresh off a home loss to Miami (Ohio), go on the road to face Tulane on Saturday, all eyes will again be on super-talented senior DE Antwan Peek. Through the first five games, the 6-2, 245-pounder has recorded five sacks and nine QB hurries while proving to be a consistent every-down defender.

Last year, Peek recorded 60 tackles. Thus far, he's already posted 41 stops in just five games, ranking third on the team in this category. Tulane, now at 3-3 after its 52-9 victory last week over Louisiana-Monroe, must account for Peek on every play. The pressure is on sophomore RT Jimmy Kosienski to keep Peek at bay and give junior QB J.P. Losman the necessary time.

J.P. Losman has had the unenviable task of taking over for Patrick Ramsey.

Against Louisiana-Monroe, Losman completed 21-of-35 aerials for 300 yards and four TDs. Remember, Losman has had the unenviable task of taking over for Patrick Ramsey (now the Washington Redskins' starting QB). Losman has lacked game-to-game consistency but has shown steady improvement, evidenced by the fact that he's now completing just under 60 percent of his passes.

With defenses keying on standout junior RB Mewelde Moore and the Green Wave breaking in four new starters on the offensive line (including two redshirt freshmen), Moore hasn't had many gaping holes to run through. Earning every inch of real estate, he's averaging 4.1 yards per carry and is leading the team with 23 receptions.

Last year against the Bearcats, Moore delivered a superior performance, accounting for 337 all-purpose yards, which set a new Conference USA single-game record.

Defensively, the Green Wave have made significant strides. After ranking 95th in pass defense last season, they are currently 10th in the nation (12 team interceptions is fourth-best in the country). The outstanding play of junior CB Lynaris Elpheage is worth noting. The 5-9, 173-pound junior already has six interceptions, tying for the lead nationwide.

MICHIGAN STATE-IOWA
Iowa, now 5-1 following a thrilling 31-28 victory last week over Purdue, hosts Michigan State on Saturday at Kinnick Stadium in Iowa City.

Brad Banks is developing into a top-flight QB, and the Hawkeyes' skill-position talent is outstanding. But the key to their success thus far, in my opinion, has been the superior play of the well-coordinated, veteran offensive line that features four seniors and a junior.

Defensively, the key for Iowa will be finding a way to contain phenomenal Michigan State wideout Charles Rogers.
Senior LG Eric Steinbach is gradually moving his way up the draft board, ranking as one of the top players at his position in college football. As for Banks, he's been performing at an All-American level in the early going. He leads the Big Ten is passing efficiency, with a TD (12) to interception (two) ratio that's off the charts.

Defensively, the key for Iowa will be finding a way to contain phenomenal Michigan State junior wideout Charles Rogers. He's already grabbed 32 receptions for a whopping 21.5-yard average and seven TDs, with his ability to come through in clutch situations particularly noteworthy. Of his 32 catches, 28 have produced first downs.

Rogers will be operating against a Hawkeye secondary that has allowed 338.7 yards per game through the airwaves, ranking them last in the Big Ten in this area.

On the positive side, the Iowa defense has been able to shut down the run, basically forcing the opposition to become one-dimensional. Opponents have rushed for just 56.3 yards per game, which is second in the country and leads the Big Ten.

It will be interesting to see if the Spartans can dent the Iowa defense with their overland attack. In their last game two weeks ago against Northwestern, Dawan Moss rushed for a career-high 191 yards, while talented freshman David Richard gained 76 yards.

WASHINGTON STATE-STANFORD
Washington State, now 5-1 after a huge OT victory over USC, travels to Palo Alto to take on Stanford, which fell to 1-3 after a second-half collapse against Notre Dame last week. Remember, before the wheels came off for the Cardinal -- two interception returns for TDs leading to a 31-7 Notre Dame win -- Stanford led the Irish at halftime, 7-3.

The challenge for the Cougars will be avoiding a letdown after back-to-back, hard-fought victories.
The challenge for the Cougars and coach Mike Price will be avoiding a letdown after back-to-back, hard-fought victories over California and USC. In addition, the Cougars are banged up, particularly on the offensive line.

Junior LT Josh Parrish remains sidelined with a broken leg, although I'm told he could be coming off the injury list in time for the Arizona State game on Nov. 2. Parrish's replacement, sophomore Sam Lightbody, is questionable due to a pinched nerve in his neck. Sophomore RT Calvin Armstrong is dealing with a sprained ankle, making his status up in the air also.

With all the injury problems, it's possible that the Cougars could be incorporating two redshirt freshmen, Norvell Holmes and Riley Fitt-Chappell into the mix, along with freshman Nick Mihlhauser.

A matchup to watch when Stanford has the ball will be the Cardinal wideouts, led by Teyo Johnson, working against the Cougars' outstanding senior cover man Marcus Trufant. Thus far, he's intercepted one pass and broken up four others, with limited opportunities due to the opposition's hesitancy to test Trufant in the passing game.

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