Kiper: Fresno State keeps making waves

Kiper: Badgers may not need to rebuild

Kiper: 2001 archive


Thursday, December 6

An early look at some conference races

NEWS & NOTES: Sept. 19

Editor's Note: Mel takes an early look at conference races in C-USA, MWC, WAC, MAC and the Sun Belt (plus the performance of key independents).

More conference breakdowns (Big 12, SEC, Pac-10, Big Ten, Big East, ACC)

CONFERENCE USA
Heading into the season, I expected East Carolina and Louisville to vie for the conference championship, with Southern Mississippi needing to overcome the loss of so many quality veteran performers on the defensive line.

After East Carolina was upset at home by Wake Forest and Louisville struggled some in a 45-24 win over New Mexico State in its season opener, indications are that the race could be wide open. But the difference in the long run for both East Carolina and Louisville figures to be the performance of their blue-chip quarterbacks, David Garrard and Dave Ragone, respectively. By the way, Louisville and East Carolina meet Nov. 15 (on ESPN) in Greenville at Dowdy-Ficklen Stadium.

Southern Mississippi benefited from turnovers by Oklahoma State to come away with a 17-9 victory. Jeff Bower's squad is always resourceful and spirited, but they'll have to deal with both East Carolina and Louisville on the road.

Alabama-Birmingham has a number of talented performers led by QB Jeff Aaron, RB Jegil Dugger, WR Willie Quinnie, OG Preston Fray, DLs Eddie Freeman and Bryan Thomas, and safeties Adrian Singleton and Torrey Hale. Against Florida State, they made the Seminoles work hard to come away with a 29-7 victory at Doak-Campbell Stadium.

With LaDainian Tomlinson, DE Aaron Schobel and several other key performers no longer part of the equation, it looked like new head coach Gary Patterson had his work cut out for him at TCU. The Horned Frogs surprised me with their ability to hang with Nebraska at Lincoln in the season opener and now are benefiting from a favorable schedule. In fact, later in the season, both East Carolina and Louisville will have to go on the road to battle the Horned Frogs.

During fall practice at Cincinnati, there was a three-way battle for starting QB. In the mix were freshman Gino Guidugli, Arizona State transfer John Leonard and senior Adam Hoover. Against Purdue in the opener, coach Rick Minter opted to go with Hoover, who was solid in a competitive 19-14 loss. But since Hoover is now out for the year with a knee injury, Guidugli has been forced to take the reins.

If Guidugli's eye-catching performance against Army is any indication, it appears that Minter and company have struck gold. A heralded prep signal caller out of Kentucky, Guidugli has the size (6-3½, 205), pure passing skills and smarts (3.85 GPA in high school) to make his mark as a top-echelon QB in Conference USA. After taking over for the injured Hoover against Army, Guidugli threw for more than 300 yards while tossing three TDs (two to Tye Keith, one to Jon Olinger).

MOUNTAIN WEST CONFERENCE
Anticipating a slight dropoff in the performance level at Colorado State with the key graduation loss of Matt Newton at QB, I went with BYU to win the Mountain West. Thus far, that prediction looks solid, especially with the early-season struggles of UNLV and San Diego State.

Coach Gary Crowton has brought a high-powered offense to Provo, but the key down the road this season will be a talented Cougar defense that has top-level personnel led by DE Ryan Denney, LBs Justin Ena and Paul Walkenhorst, and CB Jernaro Gilford. Through the first three games, Denney recorded seven tackles for loss and four sacks. Ena leads the Cougar defense with 23 tackles.

WESTERN ATHLETIC CONFERENCE
Fresno State has stolen the show, keyed by the stellar performance of QB David Carr, a Heisman Trophy candidate, and the exceptional play of WRs Bernard Berrian and Rodney Wright. Defensively, Alan Harper has few peers at DT.

The WAC teams I view as most improved are Tulsa, Hawaii and Rice.

MID-AMERICAN CONFERENCE
In the East, Marshall remains the favorite with gifted junior QB Byron Leftwich leading the way, but you have to be impressed with the performance of Akron. Lee Owens' squad pulled out a dramatic last-second victory over Ohio, then came through with a commendable effort at Ohio State.

With sophomore QB Nick Sparks sidelined with turf toe, redshirt freshman Charlie Frye stepped in and was outstanding against Ohio (13-of-16) before delivering a gritty effort in the loss at Ohio State. Frye's toughness and leadership ability make him an intriguing young prospect to keep a close eye on in the MAC.

As for the MAC West, Toledo appears to be a team on a mission. Last year, despite going 10-1, the Rockets were shut out of postseason action. In the opener, they rolled over Minnesota, outrushing the Golden Gophers by 260 yards in an eye-catching 38-7 victory. Then, on the road at Temple, Toledo shut down the Owls 33-7.

INDEPENDENTS
Anytime one team is playing its third game and its opponent is suiting up for the first time, this is far from a level playing field. That was obviously the case when Notre Dame traveled to Lincoln to face Nebraska. In its first two games, Nebraska failed to deliver the type of dominating efforts expected against TCU and Troy State.

But after a pair of tuneups, you expected things to fall into place better for the Cornhuskers in Game 3. As for Notre Dame, dealing with the 'Huskers at Lincoln right out of the blocks proved to be overwhelming.

South Florida could easily be 2-0 after its shocking upset victory over Pittsburgh. In the season opener at Northern Illinois, South Florida allowed the Huskies to pull out a come-from-behind 20-17 victory. There is no question that the tandem of QB Marquel Blackwell and WR DeAndrew Rubin is one of the best in the country.

SUN BELT CONFERENCE
All the talk in the Sun Belt centers around the Blue Raiders of Middle Tennessee State. Andy McCollum's squad features a multi-talented and super-explosive attack force that can definitely make life miserable for the opposition.

In their season-opening upset victory on the road at Vanderbilt, the Blue Raiders totaled 37 first downs while striking the necessary balance with 300 rushing yards and 308 passing yards. In their 54-17 route of Troy State, they amassed 641 yards of total offense (313 rushing, 328 passing, 29 first downs).

The stars have been QB Wes Counts (completing 73.2 percent of his passes), RB Dwone Hicks (leads nation in scoring with six TDs) and WRs Kendall Newson (12 receptions, 12.3-yard average) and Tyrone Calico (eight catches, 15.1-yard average).

Down the road, mark down the dates of Oct. 20 and Nov. 10. That's when the Blue Raiders play challenging non-conference road contests against SEC opponents Ole Miss and LSU. As for league play, their chief competitors, Idaho and New Mexico State, both must travel to Murfeesboro to face the Blue Raiders.

In terms of postseason action, the winner of the Sun Belt Conference is heading to the New Orleans Bowl on Dec. 18 to face the No. 3 team from the Mountain West.

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