LOUISVILLE -- Do I have to? Must I pick one vulnerable animal out of 20 to win the most confusing edition of the year's trickiest race since I started playing the horses in 1981? Never before have I landed in Louisville so confused, but this is the foolish business I've chosen, and duty calls.

I'll go with Tapit, reluctantly, in Saturday's 130th Kentucky Derby, even though he'd be the first horse in 86 years to win America's Race in only his fifth career start. If anybody should get the benefit of the doubt to break the rules, it's Michael "The Mad Genius" Dickinson. His colt has the best distance pedigree in the field and could move forward off his nice move that won the Wood Memorial. The pace should be quick, and he'll be running on late, which is more than you can say for at least half of the field. Post 18 is no bargain, but if Ramon Dominguez can take back and save ground going into the first turn, he should have plenty of horse for the business end of the race.

If he hadn't drawn Post 20, I was flirting with putting Quintons Gold Rush on top. I wonder if he'll be able to get to a stalking position behind Lion Heart without being used too hard into the first turn, where he could get hung four- or five-wide. He'll be an outrageous price, far more than his morning line of 20-1, and I'll make small win and place bets on him just so I won't feel like hurling myself off the Twin Spires if he does run big. If the track comes up wet, as it very well might, upgrade his chances because of his wet-track pedigree.

The other two in my four-horse exacta box are Master David and Lion Heart. It wouldn't be that shocking to see Lion Heart get away with comfortable fractions and gasp home first, as Winning Colors did 16 years ago. He's not a true mile-and-a-quarter horse, but neither was she. If you're into playing across the board, I think Master David is your best bet of anyone to finish in the money. He had a great rail trip in the Wood and probably should have won it, but he lacks the quick turn of foot that often wins the Derby. He'll be coming on at the finish, when 90 percent of his opponents will be spent.

1. Tapit. 2. Quintons Gold Rush. 3.Lion Heart

DERBY OAKS DOUBLE
In what is always one of the year's most intriguing wagers, the Derby-Oaks double, I'll play a $2 part-wheel that will cost a measly $32. I'll use Last Song, House of Fortune, A.P. Adventure and Silent Sighs with Tapit, Quintons Gold Rush, Lion Heart and Master David, and hope that I will be able to put a live ticket under my pillow Friday night.