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Smarty Jones not such a smart play? By Jay Cronley Special to ESPN.com I know a guy who likes Smarty Jones. A lot.
Now, true, the L1, the first-time Lasix without the horse having bled, is puzzling. Lasix as superstition, go figure. The person who likes, no loves, Smarty Jones, has charts and graphs and subscribes to several power rating services and when he puts it all together, the Ark Derby winner is clearly his number one 2004 Kentucky Derby pick. He also likes the pale racer Tapit and Master David in no particular order. But if you were to buy him a ticket today, he'd probably put them in that order. He's putting Smarty Jones on top of the other two in some Exactas and Trifectas; then he's going to reverse the order for some more bets at half the price. He has charts and graphs on money management as well. The point is, he really likes these three horses, more after the post position draw than before, if such a thing is imaginable. Who is he? He is somebody very important to my way of thinking. He is one of the worst horse handicappers I have ever seen. I sort of wish he didn't love Master David because I didn't mind him at all. But what are you going to do? When somebody can't pick a winner even though he's at the track day in and night out talks, you make notes in the margin. You've heard of a "cooler," somebody unlucky sent in by the house to stop a hot streak at a card or dice table. Everybody probably knows a "freezer" like this, somebody who probably couldn't hit the replay. I know about three or four regulars who are absolutely horrible horse players. I have no idea where they get their cash. They must bet a buck every so often. Or maybe they inherited a bunch. In all the time I have been going to the races at my home track or simulcast joint, I cannot remember the guy who loves Smarty Jones cashing more than a few tickets. Horses he likes go looking for another's backside to crowd, never seen anything like it. What does a so-called expert like me have to offer? I have no more information than what's available for you. When one of my "inside" contacts at ESPN calls me from the backside with a tip said to be scorching, I bet $2 and am down $6 for the year. Basically all a so-called expert can tell you is what you should have seen in the first place. Just look what the experts have done to this race already. The person setting the morning line for the Derby listed Birdstone at 50-1, the longest number in the opening action. I would set the odds of Birdstone running to that number, running last, at, oh, 2,000 to one. Birdstone at 50-1 is comical, ho, ho, ho. Then on the ESPN post position draw show, an expert popped up and said the key race to look at was the Louisiana Derby. Races in Arkansas and Louisiana shaping the Kentucky Derby, what do you know about that. Sometimes maybe the best an expert can do is pass along the benefit of his or her many hours at the races, which to share the pick or picks of somebody who couldn't hit his backside with a flyswatter, best two out of three. People who have a tough time picking winners sometimes just miss, the game can be cruel. So you absolutely must look at Smarty Jones, Tapit and Master David for second on whatever tickets you choose to purchase The winner in most high-quality races can be found in the answer to two simple questions. 1. Can the speed hold off the stalkers? 2. Can the stalkers hold off the dead-closers? Lion Heart will not fall easily from the lead. I will box these: Lion Heart, the humiliated Birdstone, The Cliff's Edge, Imperialism and Castledale. I'll take The Cliff's Edge for the win, as he has won twice at Churchill, same as Limehouse, poor thing, down there almost inside the rail. Besides those two, here is the number of wins the rest of the field has at the track: Zero. The Cliff's Edge will at least be easy to spot during what figures to be another messy start, last, or close to it. Write to Jay at jaycronley@go.com |
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