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Kentucky Derby picks
By Bill Finley
Special to ESPN.com


There's no sense mincing words: Tapit's Wood Memorial was an extraordinary race. Nothing had gone right for the gray son of Pulpit since the beginning of the year. He missed the Risen Star Stakes because of a shin problem, was forced into an impossible spot in which to make his 3-year-old debut in the Florida Derby and then came out of the race with a lung infection. Trainer Michael Dickinson was still playing catch up when he entered the Wood Memorial and hoped for nothing more than a decent performance that would get his horse ready for the Kentucky Derby. Instead, Tapit, sitting last early over a speed-favoring track, moved effortlessly toward the leaders near the far turn and then glided to the front before the wire without much urging from jockey Ramon Dominguez. As good a race as that was, he seems certain to run even better in the Kentucky Derby. He's a very gifted horse and, at last, Dickinson has him right where he wants him.

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Read the Footnotes has been forgotten and written off, and that's a mistake. His Fountain of Youth was arguably the best race turned in by any 3-year-old this year. He earned a 113 Beyer figure and showed tremendous courage in running down Second of June. Unfortunately, that race took plenty out of him as he was flat in the Florida Derby. A lot has been made of the fact Read the Footnotes hasn't run since the Florida Derby and that no horse who hasn't raced in April has won the Derby since 1956. That may just be much ado about nothing. Only 18 horses gave gone into the Derby without a race in April since 1956 and most were big longshots. Trainer Rick Violette Jr. understood that his horse needed time to recover and get back on track after the poor performance in the Florida Derby. There was no other course to take. With the rest, there's every reason to believe Read the Footnotes can run right back to his Fountain of Youth.

How do you knock Smarty Jones? So what if he's from little Philly Park. So what if he's ridden by a journeyman few have heard of outside of Philly or New England?. This horse wins and he runs fast numbers. There's not an overabundance of speed in the race, so he should get a perfect stalking trip, likely sitting behind Lion Heart in the early going.

Like Tapit, Master David should be sitting on top of a peak performance. After beating a solid field in the Sham, he missed the Florida Derby due to an illness. Trainer Bobby Frankel had to regroup and wait two months for the Wood Memorial. The horse responded with a solid second-place performance and should move up off that effort.

It wouldn't come as any great surprise if The Cliff's Edge, the morning line favorite, were to win. But I can't forget that this is the same horse who couldn't win the Sam F. Davis Stakes at Tampa Bay Downs when beaten by the immortal Kaufy Mate. His performance in the Florida Derby was better, but it was far from a great race. Aside from the Blue Grass, this horse has done nothing this year. Does he really deserve to be the favorite off just that one race?

Pollard's Vision, the one-eyed horse, didn't beat much in the Illinois Derby, but he's a pretty solid horse who is on the improve. It would be no surprise should he hit the board. Lion Heart is a fast horse with a lot of talent, but there's nothing about him that suggests he can win a major race at a mile and a quarter. Change the Derby distance to a mile and a sixteenth and he'd be a cinch. Friends Lake's win in the Florida Derby has been maligned because it produced a slow Beyer figure. But the race looked a lot better when The Cliff's Edge and Tapit came out of it to win the Blue Grass and Wood Memorial. Still, Friends Lake has the look of a one-race wonder. The same can be said for Castledale, whose credentials were unimpressive before his surprising win in the Santa Anita Derby.

Borrego has been consistent all year, but must improve considerably after three straight second-place finishes. For a while, Imperialism looked like he might be the best horse in California, but he had no excuses when a flat third in the Santa Anita Derby.

It's hard to make any kind of case for Minister Eric,St. Averil, Action This Day, Birdstone, Prop Prado, Song of the Sword, Limehouse or Quinton's Gold Rush.

Picks Summary: 1. Tapit 2. Read the Footnotes 3. Smarty Jones





Related
Cronley: Smarty Jones not such a smart play?

McNamara: Derby picks

McNamara: Kentucky Derby analysis



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