Five years ago, the biggest horseplayer in North America was heavily involved in the Kentucky Derby, and not just as a bettor. Ernie Dahlman co-owned the filly Three Ring with his boyhood friend Eugene Hauman and New York Racing Association head honcho Barry Schwartz. Dahlman and Hauman grew up together on Long Island, where I live and work, so I did a feature on them. The Derby had no happy ending for them, because Three Ring had a bad trip and finished last after not having run since mid-March.

Dahlman moved from New York to Las Vegas in the late '90s because the takeout rate on exotic bets in New York rose, which cut into his profits too much. When I spoke to him in 1999, he estimated he was sending at least $15 million a year through the windows at the race books. He's been making a good living as a player for 40 years, so I asked him about his favorite handicapping angles.

I was surprised to hear him say, "I've never been much of a workout guy." I always prefer a horse that's been working steadily, with a fast drill or two mixed in, to one that shows little on his tab. But some horses do much better in the afternoon than in the morning, and vice versa, and sometimes it takes a while to figure that out. Some horses work quickly, and others don't, and times often don't correlate with performance.

Knowledge is power, but too much information can turn you into a dummy. Which brings me to TVG's "The Works," a show I never miss during the run-up to the Derby and Breeders' Cup. I have learned not to let my opinion be swayed by comments about the horses as they go through morning exercise.

The Derby is an obsessively over-analyzed event, with every movement of every contender painstakingly detailed and weighed. Repeat after me: It's just another race, even if it doesn't feel like one. It's not that complicated, and don't confuse yourself by going over the past performances endlessly. Study long and you study wrong. Don't become infatuated with a slow horse because a commentator marveled about the loveliness of its coat. Remember that every trainer says, "It was perfect, exactly what I wanted," whether the horse breezed 5 furlongs in 59 seconds or 1:04.

Try to treat the Derby as you would approach any race. Look for horses improving or likely to improve and back away from the ones unlikely to get the distance or who seem ready to regress. Go through the field and throw out horses that don't fit the typical Derby winner's profile, and then make your best guess after analyzing the contenders.

You may not land on the winner, but at least you won't drive yourself nuts. Remember, this is a leisure activity, not cramming for a calculus final. It's supposed to be fun.

It's the trip, not the post
Ever since live television coverage turned the Derby draw into a media event, post positions have drawn far more attention than they deserve. The past two years, Funny Cide won from post 6 and War Emblem from post 5, but the previous three winners -- Monarchos (post 16), Fusaichi Pegasus (post 15) and Charismatic (post 16) -- kept proving that the auxiliary gate is not a death seat.

Where a horse starts doesn't determine where it will finish. Besides having peak form and being able to get 1¼ miles, the key to winning the Derby is a trouble-free trip. No matter what the post, a horse can be lucky or unlucky, and there's no way to predict what will happen when the gates open.

Breaking the rules
This year's field includes many horses that don't fit the typical Derby winner's profile, which is: an in-the-money finish or close-up fourth in a Grade I or Grade II race at 1 1/8 miles in the past month and preferably in its last start; a layoff of no longer than four weeks; at least five previous career starts; at least three previous races as a 3-year-old and at least one race as a 2-year-old.

Rules are made to be broken, but when they work year after year, defying them is mighty risky. Here are the horses in Derby 130 that don't fit at least one of those time-tested criteria:

Action This Day; Birdstone; Friends Lake; Lion Heart; Minister Eric; Read The Footnotes; Rock Hard Ten; St Averil; Tapit; Wimbledon.