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Preakness: Horse by Horse
By Ed McNamara
Special to ESPN.com


CHEROKEE'S BOY
Trainer: Gary Capuano
Rider: Ryan Fogelsonger

Maryland-based colt loves Pimlico (3-for-3), has speed and has won over the track at 1 1/8 miles. Will be on or near the pace and could be this year's Magic Weisner, the longshot who was second at 45-1 odds in the 2002 Preakness. Hometown bettors probably will bet him more than they should, so the local hero's price may be lower than it should be. Could hit the board.

FOUFA'S WARRIOR
Trainer: Lawrence Murray
Rider: Ramon Dominguez

Another Maryland runner, but this one looks like far more of a vanity entry than Cherokee's Boy does. This guy ran a solid third to Senor Swinger in his turf debut on Derby eve, but he's finished a total of 19 1/4 lengths behind in his only two stakes on dirt. Can't see him in the picture.

FUNNY CIDE
Trainer: Barclay Tagg
Rider: Jose Santos

The Derby winner was all dappled out Saturday in the Belmont Park paddock, so maybe the Run for the Roses didn't take that much out of him. If you didn't have him at 12-1, think twice about taking 2-1 or 5-2 at Pimlico. Did have a perfect trip and might regress in his third tough race in five weeks. Doesn't have much to beat this time, though, and I think he's the most likely winner. If he comes close to repeating his Derby performance, he could be going for a Triple Crown at his home base.

KISSIN SAINT
Trainer: Lisa Lewis
Rider: Richard Migliore

Was a distant third behind Empire Maker and Funny Cide in the Wood Memorial and would have to move up five lengths to threaten to finish in the money. Distance pedigree will help but I suspect he just isn't that good. For stabbers.

MIDWAY ROAD
Trainer: Neil Howard
Rider: Robby Albarado

Neil Howard is quite conservative, so seeing this colt in a stakes is interesting. Only try in graded company was a seventh in November at Churchill. Coasted by 11 1/2 lengths at speed-biased Keeneland, but that was a non-winners-of-2 allowance. Quick enough to be in the mix early but unlikely to hang around when the real running begins.

NEW YORK HERO
Trainer: Jennifer Pedersen
Rider: Javier Castellano

The real New York hero is Funny Cide, not this guy, who backed up late when fourth in the Wood and fifth in the mile Withers. His moment of glory came in the Lane's End at Turfway, when he lasted to win by a neck after a slow-motion final furlong in 13 3/5 seconds. Appears to be tailing off, and he never was that good in the first place.

PEACE RULES
Trainer: Bobby Frankel
Rider: Edgar Prado

What can you read into Frankel's flip-flopping about whether to run this colt or Empire Maker, or maybe even Midas Eyes, in the Preakness? Perhaps his confidence in Peace Rules isn't high at the moment. In an attempt to find some value, I'm betting that Peace Rules doesn't finish in the first two. He had a very stressful trip in the Derby, battling up front nearly all the way before backing up in the final furlong. Will face pace pressure that could soften him up considerably. Even if he runs big again, which I doubt, he'll be the underlay of the race.

SCRIMSHAW
Trainer: D. Wayne Lukas
Rider: Gary Stevens

After taking the Lexington off a two-month layoff, he showed little in the Derby two weeks later. An optimist (dreamer?) could argue that he was likely to regress and that a bounce-back at big odds would be no shock. Never underestimate Lukas' ability to pull a minor miracle in a classic. Although this guy is quick, he's not much of a finisher. The superfecta isn't out of the question, but I can't envision him in the exacta. Value problem: Being coupled with Senor Swinger will deflate the price.

SENOR SWINGER
Trainer: Bob Baffert
Rider: Pat Day

Baffert (four wins) and Day (five) have owned the Preakness, and by default I'm looking at this colt as a longshot with resources. Easily won his grass debut in a stake on the Kentucky Oaks undercard, which may boost his confidence after lousy runs in the Florida Derby and Wood. Has shown the ability to sit in midpack and come from off the pace, which could be the winner's profile in a field with much early foot. I'm not confident, but I'm hopeful. Unfortunately, he'll be coupled with Scrimshaw as a Robert and Beverly Lewis entry, so the odds won't be what they should be.

TEN CENTS A SHINE
Trainer: D. Wayne Lukas
Rider: Jerry Bailey

Didn't finish as far back as expected in the Derby, coming in eighth, but he was never involved and plodded up from 14th in the final quarter. Showed promise early in his career, which may get him a series of shots at races where he's in over his head. Would have to make a massive leap forward, and I don't see it happening.






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