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The Derby, horse by horse By Ed McNamara Special to ESPN.com ATSWHATIMTALKINBOUT Until recently the West Coast's favorite son, his stock has fallen sharply after losses in the San Felipe and Santa Anita Derby. I like his distance pedigree but not much else, especially Ellis' waffling about whether to put on blinkers for the first time or not. Derby winners don't make equipment changes this late. Might be an overrated plodder, and without any 2-year-old experience, six races in four months is asking a lot. At best, could plunk up for a non-threatening third or fourth.
BRANCUSI Took five races to break his maiden and is still eligible for non-winners-of-1 allowances. Ends up at Churchill off unimpressive in-the-money finishes in the San Felipe and Blue Grass, where he lost ground through a sluggish 13 1/5-second final furlong. Biancone has won top-class races all over the world, but this is his first Derby, and European transplant Farina has little main-track experience. For stabbers.
BUDDY GIL Keeps getting ignored at the windows and keeps taking stakes, at 26-1, 9-1 and 6-1, though against questionable competition. If you've been on board during this spree, there's nothing wrong with investing some of the profits on the Derby. If you haven't, it doesn't make much sense to bet that a horse will run a fourth consecutive career top in his most grueling test yet. Mullins has been devilishly hot for months in California and Stevens has won three Derbys and is high on this gelding. Cinderella story? More likely it's time for the coach to turn into a pumpkin.
DOMESTIC DISPUTE Last-minute purchase leaves Bob Baffert's barn and puts another outsider into the mix. Has only two wins in 10 lifetime starts and has lost five of his last six. Looked like a comer when he won the Grade II Santa Catalina at Santa Anita in mid-January, but has regressed badly since. A third-place effort in the slow Lexington followed out-of-the-money runs in the San Felipe and Santa Anita Derby. Seems better suited to shorter distances and his declining form makes him look like a vanity entry.
EMPIRE MAKER Some have already coronated this magnificently bred specimen as the Derby winner while speculating about a Triple Crown. Before you get carried away, recall Arazi and Point Given, other sure things that got nothing on Derby Day. Will be around even money, the shortest Derby odds since Arazi ran eighth at 4-5 in 1992. Distance should be no trouble, and if he behaves in the paddock and going into the gate, the sport could have a new hero. Question: Will Bailey, a two-time Derby winner, be able to work out another bubble trip, as he did in the Florida Derby and the Wood? If so, I don't see Empire Maker losing. If he gets banged around or dislikes eating dirt, who knows? Hard to beat and very tough to bet on.
EYE OF THE TIGER His name suggests courage; his past performances say he will be a prey animal in the Derby. Running a well-beaten second in the slow Lexington, his first try at two turns, is no reason to try 1 1/4 miles two weeks later. Bred to be a sprinter/miler, and is winless past 6 furlongs. Stay home.
FUNNY CIDE Gritty New York-bred gelding put up a fight against Empire Maker in the Wood and against Peace Rules in the Louisiana Derby. Battled back twice in the stretch, so maybe 1 1/4 miles won't be too far. Has tactical speed and doesn't have to lead, so maybe he can keep out of trouble. Might be poised to bounce after two big races, but odds will be high enough to be worth the risk if you're so inclined. Likely overlay will appeal to longshot players, and he's run well against Bobby Frankel's two favorites without ever looking like he could beat them. The value will be there.
INDIAN EXPRESS Utah-bred by way of Panama ran his eyeballs out to be second at 35-1 in a substandard Santa Anita Derby. Son of 1998 Derby favorite Indian Charlie (he was third) worked well at Churchill. Was his last race, his first around two turns, a fluke, or is he an emerging star? Baffert will have him primed, but expecting another lights-out performance in only his fifth career start is unrealistic. A likely pace casualty.
LONE STAR SKY Was far back in the Risen Star, Louisiana Derby and Illinois Derby and doesn't belong in the Derby. Has lost six in a row by a total of 66 lengths, and his career highlight was winning the Cradle Stakes at River Downs. An automatic throwout.
OFFLEE WILD Got a lot of people excited when he upset the Holy Bull at Gulfstream in mid-January, and that's been about it. Didn't impress in the Fountain of Youth or the Blue Grass and should sit out this one. No chance.
OUTTA HERE His name describes what his Derby status should be. Winning the $500,000 Deltajackpot Dec. 21 at tiny Delta Downs in Louisiana apparently gave his connections delusions of grandeur, because he next appeared in Dubai, where he ran fourth in the UAE Derby. Ran a good third to Peace Rules on the grass, so if the Derby is switched to turf, he might be a superfecta candidate. Keep this guy in the barn.
PEACE RULES If not for stablemate Empire Maker, he'd be a solid favorite off wins in the Louisiana Derby and Blue Grass. Even Frankel questions how he'll handle 1 1/4 miles, and my gut feeling is he'll be packing it in approaching the eighth pole. Has fine tactical speed, and if the pace is moderate or slow, he may last longer than I expect him to. Needed 13 4/5 seconds to do the final eighth in the Blue Grass, and that's a damning statistic. He'll be an underlay at 9/2 or so, and I won't be using him on top or in exotics.
SCRIMSHAW This $550,000 yearling was touted during the winter and re-emerged by winning a slow Lexington, which at least guaranteed that Lukas would run in America's Race. That was his first win around two turns, and only his second 1 1/16-mile race. Unlike Charismatic, who turned the Lexington-Derby double in 1999, Scrimshaw has never run 1 1/8 miles, a necessity for a serious Derby runner. Has speed and may get a few calls early, but I can't see him making any impact when it matters.
SENOR SWINGER Last year, an April purchase by the late Prince Ahmed bin Salman sent eventual Derby/Preakness winner War Emblem into Baffert's barn. Bob Lewis bought Baffert this colt this spring, but his first effort for him, a distant fifth behind Empire Maker in the slop in the Wood Memorial, was uninspiring. Maybe he just hated the track, because a lot of others wanted to buy him after he won his first two races before finishing far back in the Florida Derby. Has the potential to be a good one, on dirt or grass. Down the road, maybe. Not now.
SIR CHEROKEE Went from last to first to pull a 55-1 shocker in the Arkansas Derby. Where did that come from? Closed strongly into the slightly downhill stretch at Oaklawn, getting the final eighth in 11 4/5 seconds. He'd never done anything remotely as good, so my gut feeling is it was a fluke. His odds will be huge, so if you think relative unknowns Tomlinson and Thompson can win this country's biggest race, empty your pockets and dream on. I don't see that happening.
SUPAH BLITZ Any attention paid to this 2-for-15 mediocrity will stem from the gender of his jockey. Homeister will be the first woman to ride in the Derby (and only the fifth ever) since Julie Krone finished 11th on Suave Prospect in 1995. Good for Homeister, but she should just be in "happy to be there" mode, because this Florida-bred has no shot to win. Has shown decent staying power and might plod into the superfecta if the pace is suicidal and there's a major meltdown up front.
TEN CENTS A SHINE Finishing sixth in the Fountain of Youth, eighth in the San Felipe and eighth in the Blue Grass doesn't get my blood racing, and I sheepishly admit that I have a $10 win ticket on this disappointment in the first Derby Future Wager. Lukas said the colt's teeth were bothering him in the Blue Grass, and they've been fixed. A 58 4/5-second workout April 19 got Lukas' hopes up, and he's sent many other apparent no-hopers into Triple Crown races and got the last laugh. Remember Charismatic in the '99 Derby and Commendable in the 2000 Belmont? Well, don't expect this critter to imitate them.
TEN MOST WANTED Overcame trouble to draw away by four lengths in the Illinois Derby, running the best adjusted late-pace figure this spring by anyone in the Kentucky Derby field. Beat nothing at Hawthorne but did it impressively, so does he class up with Empire Maker and Peace Rules? Has the pedigree to get 1 1/4 miles (Deputy Commander out of a Criminal Type mare), and Dollase is a highly respected West Coast horseman. He's working well and might be the one to pull the surprise if Empire Maker encounters problems. A contender if he runs back to his last race, and the odds should be fair. |
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