The gates open, and for two minutes, chaos reigns. It's so loud you can't hear the race call, and even from a front-row perch on the press box balcony, you can't see much. Too much noise, too many horses, too much insanity.

The Kentucky Derby is a wild experience, an explosion of energy and emotion that overwhelms the senses. Handicapping America's Race shouldn't be so disorienting, and usually it isn't. Rarely do I have trouble isolating the four or five horses that I think can win. This year is an exception, and I have hundreds of thousands of alleged experts and horseplayers with the same problem.

Whenever you're mixed up, go back to the basics. Whenever the conventional wisdom says that almost anybody can win a classic, don't be surprised if logical horses finish 1-2. Usually, there is a pattern followed by the Derby winner, and I hope my research into the past 20 Runs for the Roses will point you toward live horses, or at least away from the ones with little or no chance.

From Gato Del Sol in 1982 to Monarchos last year, the last 20 Derby winners all had these credentials:

1. Worked out at least once at Churchill Downs, with most working in Louisville two or even three times. (This year, Johannesburg, Castle Gandolfo and Perfect Drift are the only horses that will not have a serious training move there.)

2. Made at least five lifetime starts. (Medaglia d'Oro and Mayakovsky have made only four.)

3. Raced within the past month. (Essence of Dubai, Perfect Drift and Request for Parole come in off six-week layoffs.)

4. Ran at least twice as a 3-year-old. (Johannesburg and Castle Gandolfo have run once this year.)

5. Ran at least once as a 2-year-old. (All 2002 entrants qualify.)

All but Ferdinand, Sea Hero and Charismatic had won or finished second in a 1 1/8-mile graded stakes. (Johannesburg, Proud Citizen, Mayakovsky, Blue Burner, Sunday Break, Lusty Latin, It'sallinthechase, Ocean Sound, U S S Tinosa and Straight Gin have not.)

All had pedigrees that appeared to say yes to staying 1 1/4 miles. (Johannesburg, Came Home, Proud Citizen, Mayakovsky, Ocean Sound and It'sallinthechase are doubtful stayers at the classic distances.

Horses that appeared once in the dreaded parentheses are iffy, and those that showed up two or three times look like throwouts. Among the few with all the qualities of the past 20 Derby winners is Harlan's Holiday. I'll play him to win and key him in exacta boxes with Medaglia d'Oro, Saarland, Private Emblem and Essence of Dubai. I'll also play You, Take Charge Lady and Habibti with Harlan's Holiday in the Oaks-Derby double.

If I have to shred all of those tickets, at least I'll know I lost intelligently.