If you bet the Kentucky Derby this year, don't wager on favorites Harlan's Holiday, Came Home, Medaglia d'Oro or Buddha.

There will be a full gate of 20 thoroughbreds and handicapping this race is like no other all year long.

Top trainers have a new plan to win America's favorite race. With so much riding on the Kentucky Derby, the plan is to have a runner peak not in a prep, but on May 4, 2002.

But the bettors looks at what these horses have done lately, and the last race is the one that instills the most confidence as they march to the windows. Not the best way to invest your money.

That is why betting on any of the top four favorites to win is the equivalent of parimutuel bungee jumping. These short-priced horses have, quite likely, already peaked, and yet they are about to meet faster rivals who could run the race of their lives.

Here are my knocks against the top four:

Harlan's Holiday has run too fast, too often and too soon in the campaign.

Buddha got the perfect trip, and should bounce off a tough Wood Memorial.

Came Home could surprise on heart and courage, but size and pedigree suggest a short price that is like buying stock in Enron: no value.

Medaglia d'Oro was gut-wrenching second in the Wood, but it seems to me that Bobby Frankel-trained horses need more time between the big ones.

With that in mind, here are a few suggestions for long shots to use by themselves or to fill out gimmick tickets that may turn out to be I.R.S. "signers":

Sunday Break: Did you see how Gary Stevens chose not to rough up this guy in the stretch drive of the Wood? When he cruised up to the leaders at the head of the lane, he looked like a sure winner. But Gary only smacked him seven times in the early stretch, and only hand rode him the last seventy yards. He finished third, beaten only half a length. No wonder trainer Neil Drysdale was happy after the race. The only question now is whether he'll get into the Run for the Roses. His low graded stakes earnings may keep him out.

Saarland: Don't give up on him. If I could pick a horse to win the Belmont Stakes, it would be this beautifully-bred son of Unbridled out of the great race mare, Versailles Treaty. But he could surprise in Kentucky. Trainer Shug McGaughey has not tightened all the screws down yet. Watch for a huge form reversal under the twin spires.

Castle Gandolfo: With Jerry Bailey on board, he will be a much shorter price than the 32-1 he closed at in the final Derby Future Pool, but he will still be double digits. Key here is that he trained all winter in Ireland with Johannesburg. Personally, I think the stable regards him as a better Derby prospect than last year's Juvenile champ after his win in that 1-mile prep at Lingfield in England.

Perfect Drift: Out of sight, out of mind. It will be six weeks between his victory in the Spiral Stakes at Turfway Park and the Run for the Roses. Jockey Eddie Delahoussye fits this late runner -- a style that fits the Derby, especially this year.

War Emblem: Word is Sheik Ahmed paid a cool million for the front-runner after his tally in the Illinois Derby. The key is that he moves to the barn of Bob Baffert, who knows how to prepare a horse to win this race. Real Quiet paid $18.80 in 1998. Silver Charm paid $10 in 1997.

Essence of Dubai: Part of a three-horse Derby entourage from Godolphin. Stablemates Imperial Gesture and Tempera go in the Kentucky Oaks. "Essence" has already won at a mile and a quarter. That fact should not be overlooked when the others start to gasp at the final furlong marker.

Easy Grades: He's the biggest question mark for me. If indeed he did have an equipment problem in the Santa Anita Derby (as Gary Stevens claimed), then he has a valid excuse for not beating Came Home and shouldn't be ignored.

Private Emblem: He was as a pro every step of the way in Arkansas, overcoming the outside post and making it look easy. Trainer Asmussen will not bring a short horse to Louisville.

Well, that's how I see it until they draw the post positions on the first of May.

The job then will be to sort the many into the few, and box them!