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Breeders' Cup picks
Ed McNamara
Special to ESPN.com

GRAND PRAIRIE, Texas -- With eight races worth $14 million plus incalculable prestige, there's still only one question to ask: Who do you like? Here are my educated guesses for Saturday's 21st Breeders' Cup program from Lone Star Park:

DISTAFF:
Ashado loves the distance, gets the rail and can handle fast or wet surfaces. She has enough tactical speed to be placed wherever jockey John Velazquez wants her, and her class should see her through. Her warmup race in the Cotillion at Philly Park was a lucrative public workout in which she showed a nice finishing kick. French shipper Nebraska Tornado has a lot of ability on turf. She must have shown brilliant trainer Andre Fabre enough on the dirt gallops in France to make him put her here instead of the Filly & Mare Turf, where she would have been one of the favorites. She's interesting at a price. Island Fashion ran second to Southern Image in the Santa Anita Handicap, and she may be coming back to that form.

1. Ashado. 2. Nebraska Tornado. 3. Island Fashion.

JUVENILE FILLIES:
Sense of Style showed great talent and unusual maturity in winning her first three starts, and I'll toss out her odds-on loss at Keeneland. She had nowhere to run in the stretch and may not have cared for the track. Before that race, trainer Patrick Biancone admitted she was not fully cranked for that day, and that he was pointing for this race. She can rebound at an overlaid price. Balletto ran big in the Frizette and easily can win if she handles two turns. Sweet Catomine, a very impressive winner of the Oak Leaf, didn't beat much there. She drew outside and probably will be overbet.

1. Sense of Style. 2. Balletto. 3. Sweet Catomine.

MILE:
In the always-challenging ultimate trip race, I'm torn between Artie Schiller and French colt Whipper. If the ground is firm, I'll bet Artie; if it's yielding or soft, which it could be after heavy rain early this week, I'll play Whipper. Maybe I'll bet both to win. Artie Schiller has a great closing kick, a good post and fine tactical speed. Whipper (post 1) is unproven on firm going but in August he beat last year's Mile champion, Six Perfections, who returns to defend her title. Diamond Green is 0-for-6 this year in top company in Europe, with four seconds and a third. Six Perfections overcame post 13 last year, so being hung outside may not bother her. The concern is that she's not as sharp this year as she was last October. I'll box those four in my only four-horse exacta box of the day.

1 Artie Schiller. 2. Whipper. 3, Diamond Green.

SPRINT:
In the trickiest race on the card, you could box seven horses in exactas and triples and not collect. I'll take a stab with Champali, who'll be a big price and is a longshot with resources. He has excellent tactical speed , nice figures, a fine jockey in Rafael Bejarano and a solid closing punch. Speightstown, if he rebounds from his troubled third in the Vosburgh, is the most likely winner but the price will be bad. Clock Stopper comes from out of it but could pass spent horses late to inflate the exotics.

1. Champali. 2. Speightstown. 3. Clock Stopper.

FILLY & MARE TURF:
If you're playing the Pick 4 and/or the Pick 6, single the star English filly Ouija Board She lays over the field on class and if she moves forward off her excellent third against older males in the Arc, she'll cruise. I like Film Maker for second because she is a very strong finisher. My only worry is whether she can handle off going as well as she runs on firm. Yesterday, third in this race last year, will offer better odds than she should, and Aidan O'Brien must not be underestimated.

1. Ouija Board. 2. Film Maker. 3. Yesterday.

JUVENILE:
I was very impressed with Sun King's looks in the paddock before the Champagne, and he ran a very strong third after contesting the pace three wide. He should move forward off that deceptively good performance and will offer excellent value. Proud Accolade beat him that day by less than two lengths after enjoying a much easier trip. Proud Accolade is 3-for-3 and a deserving favorite. Roman Ruler is a very good looker with a ton of talent. He's a bit erratic, though, so he could win by 4 or never get involved. I have the feeling that Afleet Alex's best game is closing around one turn.

1. Sun King. 2. Proud Accolade. 3. Roman Ruler.

TURF:
Single Kitten's Joy, the best American-based turf marathoner since Manila won the Turf in 1986. Kitten's Joy ran his final quarter of a mile in less than 23 seconds in the 1½-mile Joe Hirsch Turf Classic at Belmont Park, and he did it easily. He's the most likely winner on the card, but of course he'll pay next to nothing. Powerscourt, the DQ'd winner of the Arlington Million, looks like his best rival. Mustanfar looked good at Keeneland in his first 12-furlong race and could inflate the trifecta.

1. Kitten's Joy 2. Powerscourt 3. Mustanfar

CLASSIC:
You could go five or six ways in here and not seem illogical. I'm tossing out the mare Azeri, a likely pace casualty, and Ghostzapper, who has never run 1¼ miles and may not get the distance. I'm going with the 3-year-old Birdstone to win off a long layoff just as he did in the Travers. Funny Cide is at the top of his game after his very gutsy Jockey Club Gold Cup win, even if that field wasn't that tough. Dubai World Cup winner Pleasantly Perfect seems vulnerable as he tries to repeat last year's Classic win. No horse that raced in Dubai in the spring has won the Classic.

1. Birdstone. 2. Funny Cide. 3. Pleasantly Perfect.



 


Related

Cronely: Breeders' Cup picks

Finley: Breeders' Cup picks

McNamara: The Breeders' Cup horse-by-horse





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