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Phillies could be big spenders
By Peter Gammons
Special to ESPN.com
Nov. 2
These are not your traditional Phillies. They have been the most aggressive team going into the free-agent season, pursuing Jim Thome, bringing in Tom Glavine and courting David Bell to play third.
"Those are all high character players around whom they can build in 2003 and take the momentum into their new ballpark in 2004," says one GM. "Those are great names, and with the Braves facing an uncertain future and all the young pitching they have, if they get those three they might win the division next season."
The Indians made a proposal to Thome Thursday, which guarantees that if he stays he will end his career as the most popular Indians player of all. But while the National League might present some non-DH issues for him in a couple of years, Thome certainly is a major offensive force.
There have been rumblings that Seattle and the Orioles will make major plays as well, but those two destinations seem unlikely, especially since the Mariners can re-sign John Olerud after two very productive seasons. Thome is a very good, loyal man, and the Phillies are going to have to overwhelm him with dollars and length.
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Trend lines to follow: Going down
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Year |
Avg.
|
OBP
|
SLG
|
|
Derek Jeter
|
|
1999
|
.349
|
.438
|
.552
|
|
2000
|
.339
|
.416
|
.481
|
|
2001
|
.311
|
.377
|
.480
|
|
2002
|
.297
|
.373
|
.421
|
|
Mike Piazza
|
|
2000
|
.324
|
.398
|
.614
|
|
2001
|
.300
|
.384
|
.573
|
|
2002
|
.280
|
.359
|
.544
|
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Todd Helton
|
|
2000
|
.372
|
.463
|
.698
|
|
2001
|
.336
|
.432
|
.685
|
|
2002
|
.329
|
.429
|
.577
|
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Gary Sheffield
|
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2000
|
.325
|
.438
|
.643
|
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2001
|
.311
|
.417
|
.583
|
|
2002
|
.307
|
.404
|
.512
|
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Richard Hidalgo
|
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2000
|
.314
|
.391
|
.636
|
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2001
|
.275
|
.356
|
.455
|
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2002
|
.235
|
.319
|
.415
|
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Jeff Cirillo
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2000
|
.326
|
.392
|
.477
|
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2001
|
.313
|
.364
|
.473
|
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2002
|
.249
|
.301
|
.328
|
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Craig Biggio's on-base percentage: .388, .382, .330
Jeff Kent's on-base percentage: .424, .369, .368
Pitchers with falling strikeouts per 9 IP and rising opponents' OB%, 2000-2001-2002: Doug Creek, Ryan Dempster, Rich Garces, Mike Hampton, Esteban Loaiza, Robb Nen, Bob Wells.
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Trend lines to follow: Going up
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Year |
Avg.
|
OBP
|
SLG
|
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Jim Thome
|
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2000
|
.269
|
.398
|
.531
|
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2001
|
.291
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.416
|
.624
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2002
|
.304
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.445
|
.677
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(Thome's slugging had declined four consecutive years prior to the 2001 season.)
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Jose Vizcaino
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2000
|
.251
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.308
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.303
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2001
|
.277
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.322
|
.344
|
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2002
|
.303
|
.342
|
.397
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Michael Barrett
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2000
|
.214
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.277
|
.288
|
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2001
|
.250
|
.289
|
.367
|
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2002
|
.263
|
.332
|
.418
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John Olerud
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2000
|
.285
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.392
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.439
|
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2001
|
.302
|
.401
|
.472
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2002
|
.300
|
.403
|
.490
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Jeremy Giambi
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2000
|
.254
|
.338
|
.423
|
|
2001
|
.283
|
.391
|
.450
|
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2002
|
.259
|
.414
|
.505
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Barry Bonds' OBP: .389, .440, 515, .582. "On-base percentage is everything," says Bonds, "because slugging, homers and everything else comes off that."
Pitchers with rising strikeouts per 9 IP and falling opponents' OBP, 2000-2001-2002: Omar Daal, Eric Gagne, Eddie Guardado, Jason Isringhausen, Curt Schilling, Jason Schmidt.
Roger Clemens' strikeouts per 9 IP have risen each of the last two seasons. Greg Maddux's have declined each of the last two seasons.
Mike Remlinger's opponents' on-base percentage:.308, .296, .284.
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The Glavine situation is interesting. He was put off by the Braves' offer of a one-year contract with four club options, and now is testing the market, with the Phils a clear choice. Glavine is a perfect mentor for Vicente Padilla, Randy Wolf, Brett Myers and Brandon Duckworth. Bell is a tremendous defensive third baseman and team leader, and a productive dead fastball hitter.
Meanwhile, now past the Scott Rolen mess, the Phillies have made it clear that they'd like to get Wolf, Pat Burrell and Jimmy Rollins tied up to longterm deals, which would take them into the ballpark assured of being serious contenders for the next three to five years.
Around the majors
As for Atlanta, John Schuerholz has told other GMs that if the Braves lose Glavine or Greg Maddux, one alternative is to put John Smoltz back in the rotation and close with Tim Spooneybarger, who is in Puerto Rico working as a closer for Carlos Baerga's club in Bayamon. John Rocker is also on that staff.
Rumors persist that the Diamondbacks will eventually go after Maddux to team with Curt Schilling and Randy Johnson, but for now, they say the money is not there, that their priority is to re-sign Steve Finley (who is being pursued by the Rangers, among others), and that they may fill their needs by making Erubiel Durazo and Byung-Hyun Kim available for trade.
Speaking of Puerto Rico, former Tigers no. 1 pick Eric Munson, who had such a good second half for Toledo, is going to that league to try to play third base, which would solve some of Detroit's first-base logjam.
When Cal Ripken threw his name into the Orioles' GM fray, he put Peter Angelos on the spot, which most around the club figured is exactly what he intended. Angelos doesn't believe Cal is prepared for or flexible enough to be a general manager, and there are those that feel this is Ripken's way of cornering Angelos and freeing himself of the Orioles so he can take a 20 percent share of any of the potential D.C. ownership groups. Love of the Orioles? Not since his father was unfairly fired, and at the Aberdeen club, no Orioles memorabilia was sold, just Ripken memorabilia. Mike Flanagan has long been considered the front-runner for the baseball operations position, and Flanagan is also scheduled to be interviewed Monday for the Red Sox' GM position. But now Angelos has to go through the phony interview process to make the commisisioner's office look good, which means they won't have a GM for next weekend's GM Meetings. Ripken was in Miami attending Alex Rodriguez's wedding this weekend.
All it took was a few days of watching Mark Teixeira in the Arizona Fall League for Buck Showalter to be convinced that he is not only ready to hit in the big leagues, but that he is a special potential star.
The Padres have been extremely encouraged by their players' performance in Arizona. Jake Gautreau has not only hit, but played well at second base, while Tag Bozied has been right aside Teixeira in homers and Xavier Nady was hitting .328 before he hurt his quadriceps muscle. In addition, left-handed reliever Rusty Tucker, who had a phenomenal season in the Midwest and California leagues, has been throwing 97-98 mph -- quite a progression from when he was drafted out of the University of Maine two years ago throwing 86-87.
The Pads will sign former Pirates RHP Francisco Cordova if he passed Monday's physical. "He's now 13 months off Tommy John surgery," says GM Kevin Towers. "Remember, he was a very good pitcher with the Pirates before he got hurt."
While outfielder Hideki Matsui let it be known that he plans to come to the U.S. next season, SS Kaz Matsui -- who many believe will be a better player in this country -- apparently will wait until the end of next season, when he is a free agent and clear of the posting process. Another refugee from the Japanese League to keep an eye on is 1B Roberto Petagine, who ranked second to Hideki Matsui in almost every category: average (.322), HR (47), RBI (94), slugging (.649), on-base (.438) and walks (85).
The other big international free agent is Cuban RHP Jose Contreras, but two GMs this week said, "(agent) Jaime Torres may have screwed this thing up by establishing residence in the U.S. rather than the Dominican or Costa Rica. By establishing residence here, Contreras cannot be eligible for free agency, but has to go through next June's draft." Stayed tune for a lawsuit near you, because Torres maintains that residence wasn't established and that this case isn't that different from that of Orlando Hernandez.
News, notes and other stuff
The Yankees will try to re-sign Roger Clemens, but expect that either Rangers owner -- and fellow Longhorn -- Tom Hicks or Astros owner Drayton McLane will make a serious run to keep Rocket home in Texas for his 300th win. As for the Yankees, GM Brian Cashman believes he has a five-man rotation in place -- Mike Mussina, Jeff Weaver, Andy Pettitte, David Wells, El Duque -- before they look around at the marketplace for a Jamie Moyer, Glavine or even Contreras.
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| 2002 SEASON STATISTICS |
| GM |
HR |
RBI |
R |
SB |
AVG |
| 160 |
24 |
92 |
88 |
4 |
.276 |
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Expos GM Omar Minaya still doesn't have a budget from MLB, so he may have to go to the GM meetings next weekend in Tucson not knowing whether or not he's going to have to trade a couple of his higher-priced pitchers, between Javier Vazquez, Bartolo Colon and Tony Armas Jr.
An increasing number of agents are begging the Players Association to come out of hiding and enforce some code of ethics because of the recruiting and alleged payoffs of players. One prominent player was considered to have changed agents by the Association because it received the signed forms -- only to find out that the forms were sent in by his wife, who was recruited by the pursuing agent, and when the player found out, he called the office and informed them that he was not switching agents. The Association has long been afraid to take on any agents, but the ethical questions have gotten out of hand the last two years and cries for some moral stand.
The Cubs continue to wait out the Dusty Baker situation, with Arizona bench coach Bob Melvin also waiting. GM Jim Hendry says that any deal for Florida 3B Mike Lowell is "still a long, long way off," and he, like several other GMs, say the Marlins don't seem inclined to deal Lowell even though he will be a fifth-year arbitration-eligible player after the 2003 season, which means if he has a good year, he will be in the $5-6 million range. Florida is trying to find takers for Preston Wilson ($27M the next three years) and Charles Johnson, but one Marlins official says, "Our money situation is better than we thought, and we're not going to have to deal Brad Penny, Luis Castillo, Derrek Lee or Kevin Millar unless it makes us a better team." ... The Mets said they'd take Wilson, but want the Fish to take the contracts of Jeromy Burnitz and Rey Ordonez. Ain't happening.
The Cubs are happy with Hee Seop Choi's breakout progress in Arizona, and David Kelton may be over the throwing "thing" and is playing third base in Mexico. "He's got power we need down the line (perhaps in LF, when Moises Alou is gone)," says Hendry, who adds Kelton needs another year in the minors because of the throwing problem.
If you don't think Steve Trachsel will do fine in the open market:after his session with psychologist Harvey Dorfman and his return to the Mets (after getting sent to the minor leagues) on June 1, 2001, his ERA is 3.36, fourth-best in the majors.
The Mets were understandably excited about the Instructional League progress of No. 1 pick LHP Scott Kazmir, who lit guns up in the 98-99 mph range. And for a 19-year-old, he already knows how to pitch.
Scott Schoeneweis was stressed at his diminished bullpen role, and will likely ask for a trade. Schoeneweis has a big-time power sinker arm, but Angels coaches are concerned about the left-hander's lack of development of offspeed touch.
The Royals are calling around trying to dump contracts (Jason Grimsley, Joe Randa, Michael Tucker, et al), with major payroll cuts coming despite the revenue sharing money. In addition, clubs interested in Paul Byrd are being told that there's no way that he's returning to Kansas City. Guess that makes Mike Sweeney the first player entered in the June/July deadline trade sweepstakes.
Angels coach Ron Roenicke could be a major sleeper in the remaining managerial sweepstakes. Ask anyone with Anaheim or who worked with the Dodgers before the mindless sweep of the likes of Mike Scioscia and they will argue that Roenicke has great manager written all over. What a staff. Scioscia is one of the finest in the business, and Bud Black and Roenicke will both be managers, and that does not diminish the importance of Joe Maddon, Mickey Hatcher and Bobby Ramos.
To anyone who's known Eric Wedge, there is the strong belief that he is the next Scioscia.
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