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Tough finding right man for job By Peter Gammons Special to ESPN.com Oct. 5 This has been the season that baseball's floors have been lined with managerial blood. It began when the Red Sox were sold and Joe Kerrigan was fired halfway through spring training. Seven more teams fired their managers before Labor Day, and when the season ended three of those replacements -- Luis Pujols in Detroit, Bruce Kimm with the Cubs, Jerry Royster of Milwaukee -- were fired in turn, with Cleveland still deciding whether or not Joel Skinner will be just an interim manager. Oh yes. The Giants now are trying to ensure Dusty Baker remains in San Fransisco, as they should.
A total of 10 clubs have fired 12 managers since Opening Day, and that doesn't even count Kerrigan. The record for changes from one Opening Day to another is 13 in 1991-92, but with the uncertain futures of Skinner, Frank Robinson (Montreal) and Lloyd McClendon (Pittsburgh), the final total is still hanging.
While it is easy to point to who is wrong and finger managers for organizational deficiencies, it's not so easy to figure out who's right to take over. Hence, Buck Showalter is at the top of the list -- or right near the top -- for the Cubs, Mets, Brewers and Rangers, not to mention the Pirates if a change is made (although four different GMs this week privately said they would be shocked if McClendon were fired, since the Pirates played so hard for him). Hence, Oakland bench coach Ken Macha, who has never managed in the majors, has already been granted permission to talk to the Mets, Cubs, Tigers, Brewers and may be on the list of the Devil Rays and Rangers. And Arizona bench coach Bob Melvin and Dodgers bench coach Glenn Hoffman will likely be interviewed by three or four teams, as well.
"A lot of us are looking for managers with some kind of proven track record," says one searching GM. "Well, where are those guys? Showalter has a track record. Jim Fregosi (whose name has been mentioned with the Mets and Rangers) has a clear track record. Who else?"
"Until someone has managed and established that record," says another AL GM, "you don't know how he's going to react to all the different managerial pressures and situations. I can sit here and speculate that Macha is going to be an excellent manager, as I believe he will be, but I can't be certain."
What's difficult for guys such as Macha, Melvin or Willie Randolph who are hoping to get an oppotunity is that those opportunities can be flighty. When Macha interviewed for the Toronto job after Fregosi's firing, he was told he had the best interview and the job was his; shortly thereafter, he was told that ownership wanted Buck Martinez. Macha then thought the Toronto job was going to be his when J.P. Ricciardi went there, but Carlos Tosca and his coaching staff did such an outstanding job that Tosca earned a full-time extension.
Part of this equation is the obvious fact that it's a lot different for an unproven manager to develop a project like the Brewers or Devil Rays than it is to step into the Mets' morass, take the Cubs where they should be able to go or deal with all the politics and egos in with the Rangers. The Mets are interested in Showalter, Hoffman, Terry Francona and several men who don't have experience, like Macha, Chris Chambliss and Randolph. But it would be a risk for an inexperienced manager to have to deal with the veteran players, Steve Phillips in the last year of his contract and the pressures of New York. Thus, Fregosi may enter into the picture.
The Cubs clearly are fascinated by Showalter, as are the Rangers. There are a lot of Showalter's friends who believe the Cubs have the best job out there because of the manager's immediate bosses (Jim Hendry, Andy MacPhail), the ownership that wants to win, the young pitching and one of the three best farm systems in the game. Still, Showalter is a development guy, and Melvin and the Brewers are very appealing, because of Melvin himself, the revenues the Brewers can generate and the time they have to rebuild.
There are reportedly several factions with ideas in Texas, from owner Tom Hicks to assistant GM Grady Fuson (who Hicks says is being groomed as GM) to John Hart to Alex Rodriguez, who has Hicks' ear. Hicks may want to wait to see if he can get Dusty Baker or Lou Piniella (which he won't) or Orel Hershiser, while Fuson has his feel for Trey Hillman, the team's director of player development who managed Triple-A Columbus for the Yankees from 1999-2001. Tampa will begin a lengthy interview process, with Tom Foley a strong early candidate, and the Tigers' candidates seem to be, in some order, Macha, Bruce Fields, Alan Trammell and Randolph.
If you're asking where Bobby Valentine fits in all of this ... well, the man is smart, could be exceptional at anything from baseball to broadcasting to politics and has a darned good track record. But his shots at Phillips -- especially about past personal problems -- hurt him more than they hurt Phillips. Three different general managers who are in the search process said they would never hire Valentine because of his propensity to shoot himself with his own words, although his managerial actions are those of a productive winner. Valentine is a good manager with the right general manager whom he respects and accepts as boss.
The search for the right general manager is no different than that of manager, which is why the Brewers acted as quickly as they did. Boston ownership wants the right man for that market, for the tough decisions that have to be made in the next 18 months and to give that organization a vision it it has lacked going back to the Taylors. There have been a lot of names floated, some incorrect (Brian Sabean never was considered), some paint-against-the-wall (Al Avila), some required for interviews. John Henry, Larry Lucchino and Tom Werner had three names: Billy Beane, Ricciardi and Kevin Towers. Toronto president Paul Godfrey moved quickly as the Red Sox called for permission on Ricciardi, working out a five-year extension at a considerable raise. Unless Padres owner John Moores' legal problems get very ugly, Towers isn't leaving San Diego. Beane remains a possibility, even if there isn't a sale in Oakland. If Henry asks A's owner Steve Schott to talk to Beane and if the Red Sox really want it to happen, it could, since Beane has done as much as he could do in Oakland; this extraordinary team is together for next year, but then Miguel Tejada is gone and Beane will be forever fighting bean counting.
If the Red Sox cannot lure Beane, there is one person who makes perfect sense: Sandy Alderson. He plans to take one more run at a baseball operation. He and his wife Linda have always liked Boston, dating back to their days in Cambridge when he was at Harvard Law School. Their son Bryn is a junior at Dartmouth.
Alderson brings immense stature and credibility, and he becomes the instant mentor for eventual Red Sox general manager Theo Epstein. The Red Sox are trying to build the A's of the East, and have even hired two of their hitting coaches for the minor leagues. Well, who started the whole Oakland philosophy? Alderson, of course. He would have the power to make some of the tough calls that would be more difficult for Epstein.
In reality, there isn't anyone experienced on the radar screen that fits the job, franchise and region description other than Ricciardi, Towers, Beane and Alderson, although Epstein will be a major designer of the organizational philosophy. It will be interesting, because being the Red Sox general manager with this ownership and at this time in Red Sox history is a complex, difficult job. As Ricciardi noted, the job in Boston is a lot tougher than what lays in front of him in Toronto now that the first tough decisions have been made. Good turn for the curve
Watching the success of Barry Zito using his curveball and Kevin Millwood and Curt Schilling working the top of the zone, one appreciates the impact that the changes in the strize zone have had on the game. The most obvious impact is the combined effect of the higher and lower strike zone, which has allowed pitchers like Millwood and Schilling to ride their fastballs up where most hitters can't catch up and have them be strikes. But perhaps more significant is that it has brought back the curveball. After years of having pitchers shy away from the big overhand curve because they couldn't get it called for strikes, not only have pitchers like Zito and Wade Miller prospered with it, but now it is coming back in the minor leagues, as well.
The cumulative effect of the strize zone is that the hitters' eye planes have been changed. In 2000, the major-league ERA was 4.76. As the enforcement in changes took place, the ERA dropped to 4.41 last year, and to 4.27 in 2002, the lowest since 1993 (4.18).
In 2000, the American League had one pitcher (Pedro Martinez, 1.74) with an ERA under the 3.70 of runnerup Roger Clemens, and a grand total of five pitchers with ERAs under 4.00; this season, there were six under 3.00, 20 under 4.00. In 2000, there were three National League pitchers under 3.00, and a total of eight under 4.00; this season there were three under 3.00 and 27 under 4.00.
And, as the curveball makes its way back into the game, ERAs will continue to improve next season.
Plenty of interest in Contreras
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