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ESPN.com | Baseball Index | Peter Gammons Bio | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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Time running thin on many ends By Peter Gammons Special to ESPN.com July 27 This is a weekend without sleep. Many clubs buying, selling and adhering to an old New Hampshire furniture outlet's sign ("We buy junk and sell antiques") are feverishly trying to forge bottom lines into standings lines as they count down to Wednesday's trading deadline. And backdoor negotiations have been feverish as both players and owners try to avoid having an entire industry's focus be on a strike, not baseball. While the fact that the players are trying to expedite negotiations and commissioner Bud Selig clearly wants a deal that refocuses the public eye on the game itself, one source close to the negotiations indicates that this could be a vitally important week. By next weekend, both sides should know how entrenched the other side is on the Yankee Tax, er, the Luxury Tax.
There are moderate owners who believe that a tax can be negotiated, since they did have a 34 percent luxury tax in the last agreement; but even the Mets and Red Sox owners want restraint to slow down the Yankees, because both intend to have their payrolls under $100 million next season. If each side is willing to fall on its sword over this issue -- owners to slow the Yankees, the union to preserve the Yankees payroll -- then it may be a Middle Eastern non-negotiable issue, and there is a fear on both sides that if the players are forced to draw the line in the sand with a deadline and these negotiations get to that deadline, that Selig and the hardline owners who'd prefer a shutdown (Texas' Tom Hicks, Kansas City's David Glass, San Diego's John Moores, et al) will implode. Against this landscape, one has the poll in Friday's New York Times, which showed a significant erosion in baseball popularity since the Mark McGwire/Sammy Sosa year of 1998, an erosion that the constant devaluing of the product, i.e. the players, by both the owners and the union leaders has clearly expedited. Also, against this landscape comes a noticeable market correction which seems to be impacting virtually all the clubs, except the Yankees. Mets pitcher Al Leiter became the first potential free agent to sign since Opening Day (he agreed to a two-year, $20 million extension on Wednesday), and despite the fact that he is a No. 1 starter, throws left-handed, is a public and clubhouse leader and a franchise person, he essentially took a slight pay cut. The Tigers, Indians, White Sox, Marlins and Blue Jays have now all traded off salaried players and thrown money into deals to balance ledgers on both sides. And as the trade deadline approaches, many general managers feel that Wednesday may not be the real deadline. "The more significant date may be August 31, when the next waiver period closes and it is the last day that one can add a player from outside that organization and have him eligible for the postseason," says one GM. "By waiting, a team is more certain of whether or not there's going to be a strike, more certain of where his team sits and he's reduced what salary is inherited by another 10 to 16 percent. "Most players are going to clear waivers because almost everyone is afraid of getting the next Randy Myers (the '98 Padres put in a claim when the Blue Jays put Myers on waivers to block him from going to the Braves, and got stuck with $14 million for 21 appearances, worsened by the fact that Atlanta had no intention of claiming the veteran closer)." There are some players that have to be dealt by the July deadline, or they will stay with their clubs. The Phillies have to make a decision on Scott Rolen: they realize that next year there may be no draft choice compensation for lost free agents and that in August the Cardinals, Cubs, Mets, Dodgers and Red Sox would all put in a claim hoping to get a free look for the stretch run, no matter what the salary. Florida is unlikely to sneak Kevin Millar or Derrek Lee through waivers. Jim Thome, Cliff Floyd, Randy Winn and Jose Cruz all are virtually certain to get claimed, and/or blocked. But check the accompanying box and see some of those unclaimable players; when there was a report that the Red Sox were interested in assuming Frank Thomas' contract (which escalates if he is traded), one Boston official called it "absurd" and added, "someone could get fired for bringing up his name." If someone wants the contracts of Bobby Higginson, Mike Hampton, Jason Kendall, Chan Ho Park or Carlos Delgado, they are available ... for the waiver price. It is increasingly evident that in a business owned by bankers and run by labor lawyers that clubs are having to deal with economic realities that the players and media don't comprehend under their "do-they-want-to-win?" parasol. Last winter, the realization that only a few core players really matter, and that the more players like Pokey Reese and Rey Sanchez that are nontendered, the more the pool of fungible players increases. The same is true with bullpens; the Braves and Twins have the best pens in the game, and with the exception of John Smoltz they are anchored by Mike Remlinger, Everyday Eddie Guardado, Chris Hammond, J.C. Romero, Tony Fiore ... what you call reasonably priced pitchers. Boston, for instance, will not bring back closer Ugueth Urbina at close to his current $6.7 million salary level. Last winter, two of the games best, Jason Giambi and Barry Bonds, went on the free-agent market and had what amounted to one serious suitor apiece, and neither approached the salary levels of Manny Ramirez and Carlos Delgado from previous seasons. Now, Leiter has taken himself off the market for less than Kevin Appier money (four years, $42 million). "The Indians have to let the market dictate Jim Thome's value, which is real economics," says one NL GM. "He's making $8 million. He has every right to think that he should get Delgado money to avoid the market, but with so few teams playing big, the market could bring him to the $10-12 million range. Rolen turned down seven years and $90 million in those bungled negotiations, and even at 27, he's looking at Appier money, at best. It's going to be interesting to see how many of the major free agents get more than their current deals." In that category are Greg Maddux ($13.1 million), Tom Glavine ($8.5 million), Roger Clemens ($15 million), John Olerud ($6.25 million), Jeff Kent ($6 million), Edgardo Alfonzo ($5.95 million), Pudge Rodriguez ($9.6 million), Floyd ($6.5 million), Darin Erstad ($6.25 million), Urbina ($6.7 million); after all, Leiter was on the books at $9.25 million this season. Few will make more in 2003 than they did in 2002. And while the average salary may increase, the mean will continue downward as a smaller percentage of players get an increased share of the pie, which in turn will pressure the union. But will the hawks be willing to allow the market correction to run its course, or will they try to correct everything in a way that will further depreciate the product, the players? The Phillies have to decide on Rolen, just as the Rangers have clearly made a decision on Pudge Rodriguez and have been calling around trying to move him. Texas would love to move a lot of contracts. White Sox owner Jerry Reinsdorf has told other owners that virtually everyone on his roster is available, and will take bids on reliever Keith Foulke as well as do a similar Ray Durham giveaway on starting pitcher Todd Ritchie, outfielder Carlos Lee and several other veterans. Cleveland went into the weekend still taking inquiries on Jim Thome (they keep telling the Red Sox they can have Thome, but they have to get third baseman Hank Blalock from Texas to do so, and that isn't happening) and Ellis Burks; freed of Burks' $6.5 million next season, the Indians can certainly afford Thome. The Royals keep marketing pitchers Paul Byrd and Jeff Suppan. The Tigers are marketing virtually everyone except left-hander Mark Redmond (whose name has been brought up often). The Brewers are trying to move a number of contracts (Jamey Wright, Mike DeJean and Jose Hernandez). Tampa Bay wants farm systems for Randy Winn, but will move pitchers Paul Wilson and Esteban Yan. The Cubs are trying to unload Tom Gordon and the White Sox may move Keith Foulke and his $6 million salary for 2003. Here's a brief scorecard with the deadline 100-something hours away:
They didn't like Tom Gordon's curveball and, like most everyone, seem disinterested in Roberto Hernandez, but are listening in on the availability of Mike DeJean, et al. They continue to inquire about Thome, Burks, Floyd (if Montreal thinks it's out of the race), Millar, Lee and, to a lesser degree, Rolen. They inquired about Atlanta's Marcus Giles with plans to make him a left fielder. But manager Grady Little wants pitching if they're going to stay in the race.
"The market has been liquid this entire season," says one GM. "It starts to drive you crazy. The Commissioner has a hard and fast rule that after June 1 no one can exceed $1 million in any deal, then that goes out the window in the Mondesi and Rogers deals. Teams are going from sellers to buyers back to sellers within a matter of weeks. A week ago, Toronto was selling; now they're shutting it down and going with the team they have. "It makes you realize that what is true in the hours leading to the deadline may be completey different in two weeks, when most every veteran player in the game has cleared waivers. Call me on August 31. Then I'll have a better idea what's happening. Or happened."  Send this story to a friend | Most sent stories |
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