July 20
Bright lights, big city
The following study of pre-All-Star performance leads to some interesting conclusions, starting with the obvious fact that it is a lot easier playing in the Central Divisions. And how difficult it is to be Tampa Bay or Toronto trying to survive in the AL East or the Oakland Athletics surviving -- and possibly winning -- the AL West.
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Quartile 1
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Quartile 2
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Quartile 3
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Quartile 4
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|
$85M+ payroll
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$65-$84M
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$50-$64M
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Less than $50M
|
|
NYY
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Sea.
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Balt.
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S.D.
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|
Tex.
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Cle.
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Ana.
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Pitt.
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Bos.
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S.F.
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Phi.
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Cin.
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|
Ari.
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Tor.
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ChW
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Fla.
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NYM
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ChC
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Det.
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Mon.
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L.A.
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St. L.
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Col.
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Minn.
|
|
Atl.
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Hou.
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K.C.
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Oak.
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|
|
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Mil.
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T.B.
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* Teams listed from high to low within each group
Quartile 1 = Upper class
Quartile 2 = Upper middle class
Quartile 3 = Middle class
Quartile 4 = Lower class
Findings
The Upper class teams have won 57.6 percent of their games
The Upper middle class teams have won 49.7 percent of their games
The Middle class teams have won 45.3 percent of their games
The Lower class teams have won 48.4 percent of their games
The Upper class teams have at least a .500 winning percentage against each of the four quartiles
The Upper middle class teams have at least a .500 winning percentage against all quartiles of equal or lesser payroll status
The Middle class teams do not have a winning percentage above .500 against any quartile
The Lower class teams have a .580 winning percentage against middle class teams
The Lower class teams' .350 winning percentage against upper class teams represents the worst winning percentage any quartile has against any other quartile
The Upper middle class teams have played 57 percent of their games against middle class and lower class teams and only 43 percent against upper and upper middle class teams
At home, every quartile has above a .500 winning percentage against every other quartile except against upper class teams against which no quartile has a winning percentage above .500
On the road, the Upper class teams have a winning percentage above .500 against all other quartiles. No other quartile has a winning percentage above .500 against any other quartile.
Winning percentage vs. teams grouped by payrolls
Key Findings
Of the six division leaders, only Arizona, Atlanta and Seattle had winning percentages better than .500 against all other quartiles. New York (AL), Minnesota and St. Louis all feasted on middle and lower class teams despite none having a winning percentage above .450 against upper class teams
Seattle is the only team to have a winning percentage above .650 against upper class teams
Colorado has fared well against upper middle class teams (.500 winning percentage), middle class teams (.500 winning percentage), thrived against lower class teams (.692) and struggled mightily against upper class teams (.281 winning percentage). This trend holds at home. Colorado has struggled against all quartiles on the road, not recording a winning percentage above .417 against any quartile
Of the seven teams with winning percentages below .333 against upper class teams, only Texas is an upper class team.
Night of a thousand stars
While it has long been claimed that one of the principles of the Players Association has been to maintain the Yankees payroll, and that the rich drive the engine, a la the 1980 trickle-down economics.
But while the Yankee payroll has increased nearly $20 million in the last year, the hopelessness of competing with them have caused the payrolls of the Orioles, Blue Jays and Devil Rays to decrease their payrolls by more than $45 million. The trickle-down effect has been for those three teams to say, "why bother?"
June
If you don't think Octavio Dotel prefers the hot weather, consider these statistics from Dotel:
June-July-August, 2001: 6-1, 1.03
June-July, 2002: 2-1, 0.95
Wondering where the lions went
For all the rumors concerning a Mets fire sale, it should be clear now that they are not dumping, other than some of their potential free agents like Shawn Estes, Jeff D'Amico and/or Steve Trachsel. While they try to put together a run, here is the comparison of what four of their key offensive players had done going into the weekend, and what they could have been expected to do based on their last three full-season averages:
|
Player
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2002
|
BA
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HR
|
RBI
|
OPS
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3 Yr.
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BA
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HR
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RBI
|
OPS
|
|
Alomar
|
|
.273
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7
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34
|
.760
|
|
.323
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21
|
103
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.920
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|
Vaughn
|
|
.260
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13
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42
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.778
|
|
.297
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33
|
113
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.875
|
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Burnitz
|
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.215
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10
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31
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.656
|
|
.250
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33
|
100
|
.872
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Piazza
|
|
.298
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19
|
65
|
.950
|
|
.309
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38
|
110
|
.967
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My sundown
For the $35 million the Devil Rays paid Wilson Alvarez, they got a 17-25 record, a 4.71 ERA in 349 2/3 innings spanning a total of 63 starts.
Crashed in the jungle
Rusty Greer's injuries have forced him to miss 268 games in the last three years. And he has two more years left on his contract, totaling $14.4 million.
Consider these combined numbers of Bret Boone, Mike Cameron and Jeff Cirillo which were compiled during the first half of last year and the first half of this season:
|
2001
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Avg.
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HR
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RBI
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|
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.310
|
48
|
189
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2002
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Avg.
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HR
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RBI
|
|
|
.230
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33
|
95
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On the flipside, Pat Burrell hit 43 homers from last year's All-Star break to this year's All-Star break.
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