DIAMOND NOTES: June 8

Wherever steroids fever leads baseball -- to a debate among players or to a big book contract for Jose Canseco -- one thing should be understood: less important than the politicization of the issue, less important than the "sanctity" of records, less important than the moral issue, the most important reason that the owners want universal testing for steroids and other growth drugs is that they want to know if steroids are a prime cause for all the money being lost due to disabled players.

There is close to $200 million worth of players currently on the disabled list, and that isn't including Albert Belle, who is covered by insurance. Last year, Major League Baseball estimates that clubs paid out $321 million to players for time that was spent on the DL and not covered by insurance.

"That's more than 15 percent of the payroll," says one general manager. "Understand that an added cost is the skyrocketing insurance costs, which on players 30 and older are usually a minimum of 10 percent of the contract. Remember, a player has to be disabled a minimum of 90 days before a team can collect, and even that's iffy right now. Insurance companies won't cover prior injuries (like Juan Gonzalez's back)."

Owners believe that steroids and other growth drugs contribute mightily to the breakdowns, and that they have a right to find out. This is an issue that should be discussed rationally and without the usual labor ideology that surrounds every issue between the Players Association and management.

Just when one thinks that there's no way that baseball would commit fratricide again, one is reminded of unfortunate realities: the union is not going to negotiate because it has never had to; there are those in union leadership who believe that strikes are good; Bud Selig is hell-bent on accepting nothing but a luxury tax and increased revenue-sharing; and while the players believe there are several owners who can't afford a labor stoppage longer than 20 days, one management official says, "If the players believe that the owners won't be able to sustain a strike, we're in trouble. When Bud says six or eight teams might not be back, what he may mean is that there are some teams that would declare bankruptcy and come back in some other form, which they might prefer."

Draft Central: Names and more names
In this week's draft no one quite sure knows whether Bryan Bullington is going to be a horse for the Pirates, or whether (or when) B.J. Upton will play Derek Jeter for the Devil Rays on a team with Carl Crawford, Rocco Baldelli and Josh Hamilton, or whether Montreal can put contraction language in their contracts (as requested by at least one pick).

There was a fiscal cloud over this draft, as teams begin to wonder about paying millions to players with promises but not guarantees. The first few signings -- right-handed pitcher Chris Gruler by Cincinnati with the third pick at $2.5 million, left-handed pitcher Jeff Francis by the Rockies with the ninth pick at $1.8 million, second baseman Russ Adams by the Blue Jays with the 14th pick at $1.785 million and first baseman/left-handed pitcher James Loney by the Dodgers with the 19th pick at $1.5 million -- indicate caution flags.

"Don't think every agent doesn't have the next bargaining agreement on his mind," says one agent. "We all expect there to be some kind of cap or ceiling on the bonuses next year. We can play hardball as much as we want, but if a kid turns down a couple of million and goes to school and the next time he comes out the best he can get is half that much ... we've messed up."

Like Matt Harrington. Two years ago, Harrington, a right-handed pitcher, was the seventh overall pick in the draft by Colorado. He turned down $4 million as he was looking for $5.2 million. He didn't go to school, so last year pitched in the independent Northern League, was taken in the second round by San Diego, turned down $1.2 million with a major-league contract and this spring has been pitching for Long Beach in the Western League. In Tuesday's draft, Tampa Bay selected him in the 13th round and indicate they will offer him 13th round money -- i.e., $25,000-$40,000. In two independent leagues, he has yet to win a game.

Harrington now is represented by Scott Boras, and that may be one reason the Devil Rays may play hardball. Boras is a giant in this business, but this draft treated his players at a distance. Rutgers right-hander Bobby Brownlie and Stanford righty Jeremy Guthrie, who normally would have been in the top five picks, were chosen with the 21st and 22nd picks to the Cubs and Indians respectively. Brownlie has physical issues that the Rangers were privately scared of, and Guthrie might have physical issues if he has to throw 13 innings and 144 pitches again, as he did last week in a regional game against Cal State Fullerton.

Clemson third baseman Jeff Baker, whose stock had fallen with or without Boras, went in the fourth round to Colorado after much first-round hype. Hillsborough, N.C, right-handed pitcher Jason Neighborgall, ranked as the fifth overall prospect by Baseball America, lasted until the seventh round when Boston picked him, and other projected first- or second-rounders like right-handed pitcher Mark McCormick (11th round by the Orioles), Harrington (13th round), righty Michael Pelfrey (15th round by the Devil Rays) and Baylor right-hander Steven White (18th round by the Brewers) all tumbled. The Rangers, who have been a wholly owned subsidiary of the Scott Boras Corporation, shied away from Guthrie and Brownlie and took South Carolina shortstop Drew Meyer, and passed on Boras clients when Grady Fuson resumed drafting in the sixth round.

Guthrie, arguably the top college pitching prospect, is 23, and while Boras is seeking $5 million to sign him, to go back into the draft at 24 seems risky. In fact, even Neighborgall has to think about going to Georgia Tech if Boston treats him like a first-round pick.

The biggest surprise of the first round might have been Houston high school left-hander Scott Kazmir dropping past the Reds at No.3 and falling all the way to the Mets at No. 15. Cincinnati did get a pre-draft deal on Gruler, a high schooler from California, and there were several in the Reds' hierarchy who preferred the big right-hander (compared to Curt Schilling) to the smaller left-hander (Kazmir); this way, they know they can sign most of their top picks instead of using a high percentage of their budget on Kazmir, as electric as his arm might be.

It's interesting to watch teams and their philosophies. Tampa Bay is a high school/talent/tools club, and went with the best position player (Upton) and hit the bushes for high-ceiling players up and down the board. In the 37th round they took a sleeper SS-CF named Shane Shelley from Belle Chasse, La., an athlete who ran for 24 touchdowns (eight on kickoff and punt returns), passed for 19 TDs and is now going to play baseball. Gotta love those Louisiana guys -- second baseman and pure hitter Micah Schilling, a sandwich pick for Cleveland, is such a gamer that he skipped both his senior prom and graduation to play in games.

Oakland, on the other hand, had seven of the first 39 picks and used them all on college players. If the A's had a board, they would have ranked Russ Adams No. 1, followed by Ohio State OF Nick Swisher (who the A's picked at 16), Guthrie, Bullington and Francis. That's what A's GM Billy Beane believes in, and all their picks reflected his philosophy. If Kazmir had not fallen, the Mets would have taken Swisher -- whose left-handed swing has been described as "Jim Edmonds with a leg kick" -- and the A's would have selected Kentucky righty Joe Blanton. As it turns out, Oakland got Swisher, then got Blanton with the 24th pick, and with their other two first-round selections took Maryland infielder John McCurdy and Fresno State righty Ben Fritz.

Curiously, Beane and Boras essentially agree on the draft. Boras believes that except for exceptions, MLB should let the players go to college, where they mature and can perform to prove their value. Beane is a strong college-production advocate, and the fact that while this was supposed to be a high school draft that the first 10 rounds were the heaviest in college players in the last decade indicates a lot of other teams are adopting Beane's philosophy.

Beane believes in performance, and when he took 5-foot-8 Notre Dame center fielder Steve Stanley with the 67th pick (second round), some might have felt it an overdraft, but Beane says, "He's someone we wanted. Our scout says he's the best defensive center fielder in the draft. He can lead off, he gets on base, he scores runs. He's performed." Same with Mark Kiger, the Florida shortstop taken in the fifth round by the A's whose .536 on-base percentage clicked onto the Oakland radar screen.

Beane's former sidekick, J.P. Ricciardi (now GM with Toronto), used pretty much the same philosophy, taking college players in the first six rounds, beginning with Adams. The Blue Jays' eighth-round pick of left-hander Chris Leonard from Miami of Ohio is a fascinating selection, as Leonard might have been a late first-rounder had he not hurt his elbow (he might need Tommy John surgery,) but if he signs and has the operation the Jays may have a top left-hander in their system next year. San Diego tended toward the college route, taking a pair of Clemson players, shortstop Khalil Greene (13th overall pick) and first baseman Bill Johnson (54th pick).

The two teams that had the most early picks after Oakland were the Cubs and Indians.

"The Cubs could be looking up in two years at a rotation of Kerry Wood, Mark Prior, Jon Lieber, Bobby Brownlie and Luke Hagerty and people will be saying, 'wow!" says one scout. "If Brownlie's problem is just tendinitis, he's right there with Wood and Prior. Hagerty will either be a Randy Johnson star or never get out of Double-A, but he's a great gamble. He's 6-8 and growing, threw 90 as a freshman and could be scary."

The Indians got the consensus pitcher closest to the majors in Guthrie, although he'll probably take all summer to sign. Then they took two promising high school bats, third baseman Matt Whitney of Palm Beach Gardens, Fla., and Micah Schilling of Clinton, La. They then went with three college players -- Villanova right-hander Brian Slocumb, Florida infielder Pat Osborn and Stanford outfielder Jason Cooper as they try to re-stock their organizational position players.

There were histories to two of the bloodline drafts. Former Tigers GM Bill Lajoie, who brought Cecil Fielder over from Japan, had a hand in the Brewers taking Cecil's son, Prince. And Pat Gillick signed John Mayberry Sr. in Houston, had him in Toronto and now drafted his son, John Jr.

Gillick has always believed in the bloodline business, as he had four sons of former major leaguers (Roberto Alomar, Todd Stottlemyre, Dick Schofield and Ed Sprague) on the world champion '93 Blue Jays, and selected Nomar Garciaparra's brother Michael with Seattle's first pick last year.

"I think there's a tremendous benefit," says Beane, who took Swisher, son of Steve, once was an All-Star catcher with the Cubs. "A kid who's grown up around a big-league clubhouse doesn't hope to make the majors, as do most of us, but he expects to. There's a huge difference. Pro ball is nothing new. There aren't the long periods of adjustment that most players have."

New Red Sox owner John Henry is a strong believer in development, so he will allow scouting director David Chadd to spend in this draft. Whether or not they can sign Neighborgall is a separate issue, but they will do what their predecessors cared little about doing -- sign most of their top picks. Boston's third-round pick, third baseman Scott White, was considered a tough sign because he, like Neighborgall, is signed to go to Georgia Tech, but the Sox think they can get him done after a Friday meeting.

Branyan heads to Cincinnati
Russell Branyan for Ben Broussard? The Indians decided they could no longer live with Branyan's strikeouts and his seeming inability to adjust, and the only other bidding team for his services was San Diego, which refused to part with anyone other than contract dumps like Bubba Trammell.

Cleveland will put Broussard, a high on-base percentage guy who the Reds' major-league coaches didn't like enough to consider with Sean Casey and Adam Dunn around, in left field at Triple-A Buffalo. The trading of Branyan may free up a little payroll room in the Indians' hope to re-sign Jim Thome, who will be a free agent at season's end but doesn't want to talk until after the season.

Reds GM Jim Bowden has always loved Branyan, and not just because when and if he trades for pitching -- as he says he will -- Branyan will have more value than Broussard.

"(Branyan) is depth at first, third and in the outfield," says Bowden. "If something happens to Barry Larkin and Aaron Boone, Brandon Larson can play short and Branyan third. (Branyan's) power is too intriguing not to take." One more Indians coach says Branyan "gets managers fired," but one executive has said that if Branyan plays for 10 years, he could hit 500 homers and strike out 2,500 times.

Lowe on a great high
If the AL Cy Young Award were handed out today, there is little doubt that Derek Lowe would win it. He's 9-2 with a 1.81 ERA, with a no-hitter and incomplete games in which he's allowed one hit once and two hits three times. Only two pitchers in the last 20 years have gone through their first 12 starts with a batting average against lower than his .167, and his .449 OPS against is ridiculous. He has matured and his past winter's work with trainer Chris Correnti -- he added strength (25 pounds), balance and agility -- improved his durability, but, most of all, he has what Jason Varitek calls, "that pitch. He's got that sinker that no one else has."

	Derek Lowe Starting pitcher Boston Red Sox Profile
	2002 SEASON STATISTICS GM IP W-L BB SO ERA 12 84.1 9-2 23 50 1.81

Lowe swears he doesn't really know why, or how. "I don't and I don't even want to know to be honest with you. I don't turn it over ... I think Billy Swift, from what I understand, he actually had [to turn over his hand] a little bit. ... I don't. I just throw it and I am just blessed that it sinks, and that's basically why I play this game because the ball sinks."

Varitek says it is unique because "usually a sinker has more horizontal movement and his is more vertical and it has such a tight rotation on it that it does drop more vertically than horizontally and I think that's what makes it really different." Five times this season Lowe has had fewer than four flyball outs. "I hope they are trying to hit it in the air," says Varitek, "because if they are, they're doing us a favor and you know the fact that the thing has so much movement and he's able to throw it to both sides of the plate, he has allowed them not to be one-sided."

Philadelphia's Vicente Padilla has a similar vertical sinker, and thus has been able to win with one pitch some nights. There have been few others through the last 20 years -- Billy Swift, Roger McDowell, Steve Rogers -- who have been able to do so.

Talkin' about the Hall
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